Value
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 1.8 |
| P/S | 3.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 3.1 |
| PEG | 5.6 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 34.7x
- ▸PEG: 1.36
RBC · Why this verdict
Why RBC Bearings (RBC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
RBC Bearings is a precision bearings manufacturer with a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, a 4-for-4 earnings beat streak averaging 6.0% positive surprise, and a golden cross breakout pattern, but trading above analyst price targets with -1.5% negative upside at a forward P/E of 37.6x limits the near-term entry case.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
With 58% of revenue concentrated in the industrial segment as disclosed in the 10-K, any industrial cycle downturn or capital spending reduction by industrial customers would disproportionately impact RBC Bearings' top line compared to a more diversified component manufacturer. Bear case | The non-industrial segment grows to represent more than 45% of total revenue within the next 2 years. | ↑Improving |
| CounterIndustrial exposure in precision bearings is sticky and often tied to long-term maintenance and replacement contracts, providing revenue visibility that partially offsets the headline concentration risk. | ||
A perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 combined with a golden cross technical setup — where the 50-day moving average has crossed above the 200-day moving average — creates a rare alignment of fundamental financial health and technical momentum that historically precedes sustained upward trends. Quality breakdown | The golden cross pattern persists for at least 6 months and the Piotroski F-Score remains at 8 or above in the next annual reporting period. | →Stable |
| CounterThe golden cross is occurring with the stock already at -1.5% below analyst targets and at a forward P/E of 37.6x, meaning the breakout may represent the final leg of a momentum move rather than the beginning of a new uptrend. | ||
RBC Bearings has beaten estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 6.0%, reporting $3.62 against a $3.32 estimate in May 2026 and consistent beats throughout the prior year, demonstrating reliable execution in precision manufacturing. Earnings | The earnings beat streak extends to at least 6 consecutive quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe beat margin has been narrowing slightly from the 9.0% beat in May 2026 down toward the prior quarters' 3.6% to 6.2% range, which combined with a premium valuation may lead the market to require increasingly large beats to sustain the stock price. | ||
At a forward P/E of 37.6x, the stock is trading at a significant premium to the broad market and to its analyst consensus price target of $607.68, with negative upside of -1.5% from the current price of $616.95, making new entry economically unfavorable. Warnings | Analyst price targets are revised upward above $680 following continued growth and margin improvement. | Tripped↑Improving |
| CounterPrecision engineered components for aerospace and defense carry structural premium valuations, and RBC's 37.6x forward P/E may be appropriate given its near-perfect quality metrics and growth profile of 7.1% revenue and earnings growth. | ||
With 58% of revenue concentrated in the industrial segment as disclosed in the 10-K, any industrial cycle downturn or capital spending reduction by industrial customers would disproportionately impact RBC Bearings' top line compared to a more diversified component manufacturer.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- The non-industrial segment grows to represent more than 45% of total revenue within the next 2 years.
CounterIndustrial exposure in precision bearings is sticky and often tied to long-term maintenance and replacement contracts, providing revenue visibility that partially offsets the headline concentration risk.
A perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 combined with a golden cross technical setup — where the 50-day moving average has crossed above the 200-day moving average — creates a rare alignment of fundamental financial health and technical momentum that historically precedes sustained upward trends.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The golden cross pattern persists for at least 6 months and the Piotroski F-Score remains at 8 or above in the next annual reporting period.
CounterThe golden cross is occurring with the stock already at -1.5% below analyst targets and at a forward P/E of 37.6x, meaning the breakout may represent the final leg of a momentum move rather than the beginning of a new uptrend.
RBC Bearings has beaten estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 6.0%, reporting $3.62 against a $3.32 estimate in May 2026 and consistent beats throughout the prior year, demonstrating reliable execution in precision manufacturing.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The earnings beat streak extends to at least 6 consecutive quarters.
CounterThe beat margin has been narrowing slightly from the 9.0% beat in May 2026 down toward the prior quarters' 3.6% to 6.2% range, which combined with a premium valuation may lead the market to require increasingly large beats to sustain the stock price.
At a forward P/E of 37.6x, the stock is trading at a significant premium to the broad market and to its analyst consensus price target of $607.68, with negative upside of -1.5% from the current price of $616.95, making new entry economically unfavorable.
Tripped↑ImprovingWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets are revised upward above $680 following continued growth and margin improvement.
CounterPrecision engineered components for aerospace and defense carry structural premium valuations, and RBC's 37.6x forward P/E may be appropriate given its near-perfect quality metrics and growth profile of 7.1% revenue and earnings growth.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.0 |
| ROA | 3.8 |
| Gross margin | 5.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 7.7 |
| Current ratio | 7.5 |
| FCF quality | 6.4 |
| Moat | 7.1 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 15%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
7.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.1 |
| EPS growth | 7.1 |
Momentum
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.4 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 2.5 |
- ▸Oversold in uptrend (RSI 25)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.7 |
| Price target | 5.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $1,434,882 (0.008% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.0 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 7.5 |
Technical
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.1 |
| support resistance | 8.0 |
| 52w position | 7.5 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.2 |
| days to cover | 9.4 |
| volatility | 4.7 |
| beta | 5.4 |
| debt equity | 8.8 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.5 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 10 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.2<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:10d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.26
Upside
-7.9%
Downside
6.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 10d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.40>1.3
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Risk (lower is worse) at 7.5; weakest: Momentum at 3.2. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 7.5, Insider at 7.3, and Growth at 7.1; the weakest are Momentum at 3.2, Value at 3.3, and Peer rank at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.26 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Piotroski Breakout Alignment
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 7, or the golden cross pattern reverses into a death cross within 6 months.
- P2Consistent Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -5% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P3Rich Valuation Above TargetsTripped
Trip ifThe forward P/E expands above 45x without a corresponding upward revision in analyst price targets.
- P4Industrial Segment Concentration
Trip ifIndustrial segment revenue declines by more than 10% in any reported annual period.