Value
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.6 |
| P/S | 4.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.1 |
| PEG | 4.9 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 29.5x
- ▸PEG: 1.62
RBC · Why this verdict
Why RBC Bearings (RBC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
RBC Bearings is a precision bearings manufacturer with a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, a 4-for-4 earnings beat streak averaging 6.0% positive surprise, and a golden cross breakout pattern, but trading above analyst price targets with -1.5% negative upside at a forward P/E of 37.6x limits the near-term entry case.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
With 58% of revenue concentrated in the industrial segment as disclosed in the 10-K, any industrial cycle downturn or capital spending reduction by industrial customers would disproportionately impact RBC Bearings' top line compared to a more diversified component manufacturer. Bear case | The non-industrial segment grows to represent more than 45% of total revenue within the next 2 years. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterIndustrial exposure in precision bearings is sticky and often tied to long-term maintenance and replacement contracts, providing revenue visibility that partially offsets the headline concentration risk. | ||
A perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 combined with a golden cross technical setup — where the 50-day moving average has crossed above the 200-day moving average — creates a rare alignment of fundamental financial health and technical momentum that historically precedes sustained upward trends. Quality breakdown | The golden cross pattern persists for at least 6 months and the Piotroski F-Score remains at 8 or above in the next annual reporting period. | →Stable |
| CounterThe golden cross is occurring with the stock already at -1.5% below analyst targets and at a forward P/E of 37.6x, meaning the breakout may represent the final leg of a momentum move rather than the beginning of a new uptrend. | ||
RBC Bearings has beaten estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 6.0%, reporting $3.62 against a $3.32 estimate in May 2026 and consistent beats throughout the prior year, demonstrating reliable execution in precision manufacturing. Earnings | The earnings beat streak extends to at least 6 consecutive quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe beat margin has been narrowing slightly from the 9.0% beat in May 2026 down toward the prior quarters' 3.6% to 6.2% range, which combined with a premium valuation may lead the market to require increasingly large beats to sustain the stock price. | ||
At a forward P/E of 37.6x, the stock is trading at a significant premium to the broad market and to its analyst consensus price target of $607.68, with negative upside of -1.5% from the current price of $616.95, making new entry economically unfavorable. Warnings | Analyst price targets are revised upward above $680 following continued growth and margin improvement. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterPrecision engineered components for aerospace and defense carry structural premium valuations, and RBC's 37.6x forward P/E may be appropriate given its near-perfect quality metrics and growth profile of 7.1% revenue and earnings growth. | ||
With 58% of revenue concentrated in the industrial segment as disclosed in the 10-K, any industrial cycle downturn or capital spending reduction by industrial customers would disproportionately impact RBC Bearings' top line compared to a more diversified component manufacturer.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- The non-industrial segment grows to represent more than 45% of total revenue within the next 2 years.
CounterIndustrial exposure in precision bearings is sticky and often tied to long-term maintenance and replacement contracts, providing revenue visibility that partially offsets the headline concentration risk.
A perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 combined with a golden cross technical setup — where the 50-day moving average has crossed above the 200-day moving average — creates a rare alignment of fundamental financial health and technical momentum that historically precedes sustained upward trends.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The golden cross pattern persists for at least 6 months and the Piotroski F-Score remains at 8 or above in the next annual reporting period.
CounterThe golden cross is occurring with the stock already at -1.5% below analyst targets and at a forward P/E of 37.6x, meaning the breakout may represent the final leg of a momentum move rather than the beginning of a new uptrend.
RBC Bearings has beaten estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 6.0%, reporting $3.62 against a $3.32 estimate in May 2026 and consistent beats throughout the prior year, demonstrating reliable execution in precision manufacturing.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The earnings beat streak extends to at least 6 consecutive quarters.
CounterThe beat margin has been narrowing slightly from the 9.0% beat in May 2026 down toward the prior quarters' 3.6% to 6.2% range, which combined with a premium valuation may lead the market to require increasingly large beats to sustain the stock price.
At a forward P/E of 37.6x, the stock is trading at a significant premium to the broad market and to its analyst consensus price target of $607.68, with negative upside of -1.5% from the current price of $616.95, making new entry economically unfavorable.
Tripped↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets are revised upward above $680 following continued growth and margin improvement.
CounterPrecision engineered components for aerospace and defense carry structural premium valuations, and RBC's 37.6x forward P/E may be appropriate given its near-perfect quality metrics and growth profile of 7.1% revenue and earnings growth.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.2 |
| ROA | 4.0 |
| Gross margin | 5.2 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 8.2 |
| Current ratio | 8.6 |
| FCF quality | 6.4 |
| Moat | 7.1 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 16%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
8.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.3 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
1.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 19, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+3.8%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| news sentiment | 10.0 |
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 8.5 |
- ▸Positive news sentiment (+1.00)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 29%
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 3.8 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $750,833 (0.005% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.0 |
| quality rank | 5.6 |
| growth rank | 7.5 |
Technical
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.8 |
| support resistance | 9.0 |
| 52w position | 4.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.2 |
| days to cover | 8.9 |
| volatility | 5.3 |
| put call | 2.4 |
| implied vol | 7.6 |
| max pain risk | 5.0 |
| beta | 5.3 |
| debt equity | 9.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.64
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.7 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2Passed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:2.2>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:57d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:1.2<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.16
Upside
+12.4%
Downside
5.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.41>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 8.7) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:1.2<4.5) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 2.16 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.7, Sentiment at 8.2, and Technical at 7.2; the weakest are Momentum at 1.2, Insider at 3.9, and Value at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.16 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Piotroski Breakout Alignment
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 7, or the golden cross pattern reverses into a death cross within 6 months.
- P2Consistent Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -5% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P3Rich Valuation Above TargetsTripped
Trip ifThe forward P/E expands above 45x without a corresponding upward revision in analyst price targets.
- P4Industrial Segment Concentration
Trip ifIndustrial segment revenue declines by more than 10% in any reported annual period.