Value
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.4 |
| P/S | 7.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.5 |
| PEG | 6.8 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 23.1x
- ▸PEG: 1.04
RBA · Why this verdict
Why RB Global (RBA) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
RB Global has delivered positive earnings surprises in all four of the last four quarters with an average beat of 11.3%, including a 17.3% beat in November 2025 when it reported $0.93 against a $0.79 estimate, demonstrating exceptional consistency in outperforming guidance. Earnings | The earnings beat streak extends to at least 6 consecutive quarters with average positive surprise above 8%. | →Stable |
| CounterAt a stock price that has already run to the analyst consensus target level, the earnings beats may already be priced in, and further beats may produce diminishing price appreciation. | ||
With a momentum score of 8.0 out of 10, the stock is above its 200-day moving average, showing strong MACD bullish signal and rising on-balance volume with positive price trend continuation, indicating broad institutional support for continued upward movement. Momentum breakdown | The stock maintains its momentum score above 6.5 for at least 6 consecutive months. | →Stable |
| CounterA trend continuation setup with RSI at 64 and a stock near its analyst target means momentum buyers may exhaust themselves at the current price level, particularly if the asymmetry ratio of 0.07 discourages new money from entering. | ||
At $110.41, the stock is within 0.6% of its analyst consensus price target of $111.12, leaving essentially no upside with a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.12, which makes new entry economically irrational given the 9.6% downside to the stop-loss level. Warnings | Analyst price targets are revised upward above $125 following continued earnings beats and business growth confirmation. | →Stable |
| CounterCompanies with strong momentum and consistent earnings beats frequently see analyst target upgrades that restore the upside margin, meaning the current thin upside may be temporary. | ||
Converting 151% of net income into free cash flow alongside a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 gives RB Global a solid financial foundation, and its strong growth score of 5.7 combined with momentum suggests the business is scaling effectively in its core auction services market. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion remains above 130% for the next 2 reported annual periods. | →Stable |
| CounterAn officer departure or appointment has been flagged in recent 8-K filings, which may introduce leadership uncertainty that temporarily disrupts operational momentum. | ||
RB Global has delivered positive earnings surprises in all four of the last four quarters with an average beat of 11.3%, including a 17.3% beat in November 2025 when it reported $0.93 against a $0.79 estimate, demonstrating exceptional consistency in outperforming guidance.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The earnings beat streak extends to at least 6 consecutive quarters with average positive surprise above 8%.
CounterAt a stock price that has already run to the analyst consensus target level, the earnings beats may already be priced in, and further beats may produce diminishing price appreciation.
With a momentum score of 8.0 out of 10, the stock is above its 200-day moving average, showing strong MACD bullish signal and rising on-balance volume with positive price trend continuation, indicating broad institutional support for continued upward movement.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock maintains its momentum score above 6.5 for at least 6 consecutive months.
CounterA trend continuation setup with RSI at 64 and a stock near its analyst target means momentum buyers may exhaust themselves at the current price level, particularly if the asymmetry ratio of 0.07 discourages new money from entering.
At $110.41, the stock is within 0.6% of its analyst consensus price target of $111.12, leaving essentially no upside with a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.12, which makes new entry economically irrational given the 9.6% downside to the stop-loss level.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets are revised upward above $125 following continued earnings beats and business growth confirmation.
CounterCompanies with strong momentum and consistent earnings beats frequently see analyst target upgrades that restore the upside margin, meaning the current thin upside may be temporary.
Converting 151% of net income into free cash flow alongside a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 gives RB Global a solid financial foundation, and its strong growth score of 5.7 combined with momentum suggests the business is scaling effectively in its core auction services market.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion remains above 130% for the next 2 reported annual periods.
CounterAn officer departure or appointment has been flagged in recent 8-K filings, which may introduce leadership uncertainty that temporarily disrupts operational momentum.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
RB Global is an industrial auction and asset management services company with a perfect 4-for-4 earnings beat streak averaging 11.3% positive surprise and the strongest momentum score of 8.0 out of 10, but the stock has already reached its analyst price target with only 0.6% upside and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.12 that makes new entry unattractive.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.5 |
| ROA | 2.7 |
| Gross margin | 5.3 |
| Op margin | 7.2 |
| Net margin | 4.8 |
| Current ratio | 4.4 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 151% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.4 |
| EPS growth | 6.0 |
Momentum
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 5.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 6.9 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $11,189 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.8 |
| quality rank | 5.5 |
| growth rank | 7.2 |
Technical
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.1 |
| support resistance | 3.1 |
| 52w position | 9.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.5 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 5.2 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 4.6 |
| beta | 9.7 |
| debt equity | 6.6 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.14
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.2 |
| dividend safety | 4.8 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2Passed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.9>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:33d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.18
Upside
-1.5%
Downside
8.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.4 below the 5.4 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 6.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.18 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 6.8, Catalyst at 6.3, and Momentum at 5.9; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.9, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.5, and Value at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.18 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P2Strongest Momentum Score
Trip ifThe momentum score falls below 5.5 for 2 consecutive monthly assessments.
- P3Stock At Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target declines below $100, more than 10% below the current price.
- P4Strong Cash Conversion Quality
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 100% of net income in any reported annual period.