Value
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.0 |
| P/S | 8.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.9 |
| PEG | 7.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 18.5x
- ▸PEG: 1.01
RBA · Why this verdict
Why RB Global (RBA) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
RB Global is an industrial auction and asset management services company with a perfect 4-for-4 earnings beat streak averaging 11.3% positive surprise and the strongest momentum score of 8.0 out of 10, but the stock has already reached its analyst price target with only 0.6% upside and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.12 that makes new entry unattractive.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
RB Global has delivered positive earnings surprises in all four of the last four quarters with an average beat of 11.3%, including a 17.3% beat in November 2025 when it reported $0.93 against a $0.79 estimate, demonstrating exceptional consistency in outperforming guidance. Earnings | The earnings beat streak extends to at least 6 consecutive quarters with average positive surprise above 8%. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAt a stock price that has already run to the analyst consensus target level, the earnings beats may already be priced in, and further beats may produce diminishing price appreciation. | ||
With a momentum score of 8.0 out of 10, the stock is above its 200-day moving average, showing strong MACD bullish signal and rising on-balance volume with positive price trend continuation, indicating broad institutional support for continued upward movement. Momentum breakdown | The stock maintains its momentum score above 6.5 for at least 6 consecutive months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA trend continuation setup with RSI at 64 and a stock near its analyst target means momentum buyers may exhaust themselves at the current price level, particularly if the asymmetry ratio of 0.07 discourages new money from entering. | ||
At $110.41, the stock is within 0.6% of its analyst consensus price target of $111.12, leaving essentially no upside with a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.12, which makes new entry economically irrational given the 9.6% downside to the stop-loss level. Warnings | Analyst price targets are revised upward above $125 following continued earnings beats and business growth confirmation. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterCompanies with strong momentum and consistent earnings beats frequently see analyst target upgrades that restore the upside margin, meaning the current thin upside may be temporary. | ||
Converting 151% of net income into free cash flow alongside a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 gives RB Global a solid financial foundation, and its strong growth score of 5.7 combined with momentum suggests the business is scaling effectively in its core auction services market. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion remains above 130% for the next 2 reported annual periods. | →Stable |
| CounterAn officer departure or appointment has been flagged in recent 8-K filings, which may introduce leadership uncertainty that temporarily disrupts operational momentum. | ||
RB Global has delivered positive earnings surprises in all four of the last four quarters with an average beat of 11.3%, including a 17.3% beat in November 2025 when it reported $0.93 against a $0.79 estimate, demonstrating exceptional consistency in outperforming guidance.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- The earnings beat streak extends to at least 6 consecutive quarters with average positive surprise above 8%.
CounterAt a stock price that has already run to the analyst consensus target level, the earnings beats may already be priced in, and further beats may produce diminishing price appreciation.
With a momentum score of 8.0 out of 10, the stock is above its 200-day moving average, showing strong MACD bullish signal and rising on-balance volume with positive price trend continuation, indicating broad institutional support for continued upward movement.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock maintains its momentum score above 6.5 for at least 6 consecutive months.
CounterA trend continuation setup with RSI at 64 and a stock near its analyst target means momentum buyers may exhaust themselves at the current price level, particularly if the asymmetry ratio of 0.07 discourages new money from entering.
At $110.41, the stock is within 0.6% of its analyst consensus price target of $111.12, leaving essentially no upside with a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.12, which makes new entry economically irrational given the 9.6% downside to the stop-loss level.
Tripped↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets are revised upward above $125 following continued earnings beats and business growth confirmation.
CounterCompanies with strong momentum and consistent earnings beats frequently see analyst target upgrades that restore the upside margin, meaning the current thin upside may be temporary.
Converting 151% of net income into free cash flow alongside a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 gives RB Global a solid financial foundation, and its strong growth score of 5.7 combined with momentum suggests the business is scaling effectively in its core auction services market.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion remains above 130% for the next 2 reported annual periods.
CounterAn officer departure or appointment has been flagged in recent 8-K filings, which may introduce leadership uncertainty that temporarily disrupts operational momentum.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.7 |
| ROA | 2.8 |
| Gross margin | 5.2 |
| Op margin | 7.1 |
| Net margin | 5.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.9 |
| FCF quality | 9.2 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 125% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.3 |
| EPS growth | 8.8 |
Momentum
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 7.1 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 26, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 9.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 49%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $26,589 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.4 |
| quality rank | 5.6 |
| growth rank | 6.2 |
Technical
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.9 |
| 52w position | 4.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.3 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.3 |
| beta | 9.7 |
| debt equity | 6.3 |
Catalyst
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.7 |
| dividend safety | 5.8 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:2.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:85d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:2.7<4.5
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
2.84
Upside
+29.7%
Downside
10.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupOversold Bounce — Oversold RSI 26, near Bollinger lower, volume surge
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:2.8>=1.5. Top dim: Technical at 8.1; weakest: Momentum at 2.7. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 8.1, Sentiment at 7.3, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Momentum at 2.7, Peer rank at 4.9, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.84 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P2Strongest Momentum Score
Trip ifThe momentum score falls below 5.5 for 2 consecutive monthly assessments.
- P3Stock At Analyst TargetTripped
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target declines below $100, more than 10% below the current price.
- P4Strong Cash Conversion Quality
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 100% of net income in any reported annual period.