Value
8.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 6.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.06
- ▸Attractively valued
PVH · Why this verdict
Why PVH (PVH) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
PVH Corp. has delivered a perfect 4-for-4 earnings beat streak with an average surprise of 16%, trades at a forward P/E of 6.5x with a PEG of 0.06, and shows strong free cash flow at 295% of net income, but the stock is priced at or above analyst targets and carries high short interest of 13% pointing to skepticism about its concentrated brand portfolio.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein account for all of PVH's brand revenue, creating a dual-brand concentration where either brand's loss of consumer relevance or licensing deterioration would have a disproportionate impact on total company earnings. Bear case | Both brands maintain positive revenue trajectory with no material decline in brand health metrics over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterBoth Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein are globally recognized premium brands with decades of customer loyalty; the concentration risk is mitigated by the brands' established market positions. | ||
PVH has beaten analyst estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 16%, while trading at a forward P/E of 6.5x and PEG ratio of 0.06, indicating the market is pricing in substantial risk for a business that continues to outperform expectations. Earnings | Earnings beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters and the forward P/E expands above 8x as investor confidence returns. | →Stable |
| CounterA PEG of 0.06 reflects very limited near-term growth rather than deep value; revenue is barely growing and analysts have already priced the stock near full value on a near-term basis. | ||
Free cash flow conversion of 295% relative to net income and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate that the business generates substantially more cash than its accounting earnings reflect, providing financial flexibility for buybacks, debt reduction, or dividends. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion remains above 200% for the next 12 months as working capital management continues to improve. | →Stable |
| CounterBusiness quality scores at 5.0/10 overall, with low ROE of 1.1% and operating margin of only 2.3% on an accounting basis, suggesting the high FCF conversion is a temporary phenomenon rather than a structural strength. | ||
Short interest at 13% of float combined with a revenue growth rate near zero and the stock already at analyst price targets suggests that short sellers are positioned for an expected deceleration in execution that would disappoint the current consensus. Risk breakdown | Short interest falls below 7% within 12 months as sustained earnings beats convert bears to bulls. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe earnings beat streak of 4-for-4 demonstrates that the company is actively defying the bear thesis; short sellers have been wrong four consecutive quarters and may be forced to cover. | ||
Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein account for all of PVH's brand revenue, creating a dual-brand concentration where either brand's loss of consumer relevance or licensing deterioration would have a disproportionate impact on total company earnings.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Both brands maintain positive revenue trajectory with no material decline in brand health metrics over 12 months.
CounterBoth Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein are globally recognized premium brands with decades of customer loyalty; the concentration risk is mitigated by the brands' established market positions.
PVH has beaten analyst estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 16%, while trading at a forward P/E of 6.5x and PEG ratio of 0.06, indicating the market is pricing in substantial risk for a business that continues to outperform expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters and the forward P/E expands above 8x as investor confidence returns.
CounterA PEG of 0.06 reflects very limited near-term growth rather than deep value; revenue is barely growing and analysts have already priced the stock near full value on a near-term basis.
Free cash flow conversion of 295% relative to net income and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate that the business generates substantially more cash than its accounting earnings reflect, providing financial flexibility for buybacks, debt reduction, or dividends.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion remains above 200% for the next 12 months as working capital management continues to improve.
CounterBusiness quality scores at 5.0/10 overall, with low ROE of 1.1% and operating margin of only 2.3% on an accounting basis, suggesting the high FCF conversion is a temporary phenomenon rather than a structural strength.
Short interest at 13% of float combined with a revenue growth rate near zero and the stock already at analyst price targets suggests that short sellers are positioned for an expected deceleration in execution that would disappoint the current consensus.
↓DeterioratingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 7% within 12 months as sustained earnings beats convert bears to bulls.
CounterThe earnings beat streak of 4-for-4 demonstrates that the company is actively defying the bear thesis; short sellers have been wrong four consecutive quarters and may be forced to cover.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 2.5 |
| Gross margin | 7.5 |
| Op margin | 2.1 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.9 |
| FCF quality | 5.2 |
| Moat | 4.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 6%, FCF yield 15.1%)
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
1.7/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.7 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -3%
Momentum
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 5.0 |
| Volume | 1.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA (recent, shallow — too early to call)
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 7.7 |
| erm sentiment | 4.4 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 20%
Insider
6.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 7.6 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.6 |
| quality rank | 1.4 |
| growth rank | 1.4 |
Technical
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.7 |
| support resistance | 2.9 |
| 52w position | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.4 |
| days to cover | 5.7 |
| volatility | 3.3 |
| put call | 5.3 |
| implied vol | 5.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 4.3 |
| debt equity | 5.8 |
- ▸Above max pain $40
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.8 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 0.2% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:70d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.4<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.5<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.47
Upside
+4.8%
Downside
10.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.72>1.3, MCap $3.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 4.4<4.5 outcome against Value at 8.5 and asymmetric R:R of 0.47.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.5, Catalyst at 7.5, and Sentiment at 6.6; the weakest are Growth at 1.7, Technical at 3.5, and Quality at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.47 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat And Value
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -5% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P2Brand Concentration Risk
Trip ifRevenue from the Tommy Hilfiger or Calvin Klein brand declines by more than 10% in any single annual report.
- P3Free Cash Flow Quality
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 100% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4High Short Interest Weak Growth
Trip ifShort interest rises above 18% of float for more than 45 consecutive days.