Value
8.2/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.2 |
| P/S | 7.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.15
- ▸Attractively valued
PNFP · Why this verdict
Why Pinnacle Financial Partners, In (PNFP) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Pinnacle Financial Partners is a regional bank with 156% year-over-year earnings growth, an attractive forward P/E of 8.1x with a PEG of 0.13, and an industry-leading growth score of 10/10 — trading at a modest 9.2% implied upside with acceptable asymmetry for a cautious hold position.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Pinnacle Financial Partners is delivering 156% year-over-year earnings growth — an unusually high figure for a regional bank — ranking as the industry growth leader within its peer group with a perfect 10/10 on both revenue and earnings growth scores, suggesting significant positive operating leverage in its current business mix. Growth breakdown | Earnings growth remains above 50% year-over-year for the next 2 quarterly reports as the growth rate normalizes but remains at an industry-leading level. | →Stable |
| Counter156% earnings growth in a bank often reflects a low prior-year comparison base due to elevated loan loss provisions or a one-time charge in the prior period — the growth rate may be optically inflated and will mean-revert sharply. | ||
Pinnacle Financial trades at a forward P/E of 8.1x and a PEG of 0.13 — one of the lowest PEG ratios in this analysis batch for a bank — with the overall value score at 8.1/10, suggesting the market has not yet fully priced in the growth rate the company is currently delivering. Valuation breakdown | The stock re-rates to a forward P/E above 11x within 12 months as earnings growth is sustained and analyst price targets approach $105. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional banks with high earnings growth driven by net interest margin expansion in a rising rate cycle frequently see multiple compression when rates stabilize or decline, making the current PEG of 0.13 a function of the rate cycle rather than durable business quality. | ||
Pinnacle has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 4.4%, maintaining consistent execution even as growth rates are elevated — the lone miss in January 2026 was only -1.1%, well within normal variance. Earnings | The company beats consensus estimates in the next 2 quarterly reports with at least a 3% positive surprise in each. | →Stable |
| CounterA 4.4% average beat rate is modest and the one miss (January 2026) was very close to expectations, suggesting the company does not have a strong structural advantage in setting beatable guidance targets. | ||
With only 9.2% implied upside to the analyst target of $104.87 from the current price of $96.08, and a risk/reward ratio of 1.60, Pinnacle offers acceptable but not compelling return potential — making it a hold rather than an aggressive add at current levels. Bear case | Analyst consensus price targets are revised above $115 within 12 months following continued strong earnings growth, improving the upside margin to above 20%. | ↓Deteriorating |
| Counter9.2% implied upside for a regional bank with 156% earnings growth and a PEG of 0.13 actually represents underpricing relative to quality — the constraint is the short-term technical picture, not the fundamental case. | ||
Pinnacle Financial Partners is delivering 156% year-over-year earnings growth — an unusually high figure for a regional bank — ranking as the industry growth leader within its peer group with a perfect 10/10 on both revenue and earnings growth scores, suggesting significant positive operating leverage in its current business mix.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth remains above 50% year-over-year for the next 2 quarterly reports as the growth rate normalizes but remains at an industry-leading level.
Counter156% earnings growth in a bank often reflects a low prior-year comparison base due to elevated loan loss provisions or a one-time charge in the prior period — the growth rate may be optically inflated and will mean-revert sharply.
Pinnacle Financial trades at a forward P/E of 8.1x and a PEG of 0.13 — one of the lowest PEG ratios in this analysis batch for a bank — with the overall value score at 8.1/10, suggesting the market has not yet fully priced in the growth rate the company is currently delivering.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock re-rates to a forward P/E above 11x within 12 months as earnings growth is sustained and analyst price targets approach $105.
CounterRegional banks with high earnings growth driven by net interest margin expansion in a rising rate cycle frequently see multiple compression when rates stabilize or decline, making the current PEG of 0.13 a function of the rate cycle rather than durable business quality.
Pinnacle has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 4.4%, maintaining consistent execution even as growth rates are elevated — the lone miss in January 2026 was only -1.1%, well within normal variance.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company beats consensus estimates in the next 2 quarterly reports with at least a 3% positive surprise in each.
CounterA 4.4% average beat rate is modest and the one miss (January 2026) was very close to expectations, suggesting the company does not have a strong structural advantage in setting beatable guidance targets.
With only 9.2% implied upside to the analyst target of $104.87 from the current price of $96.08, and a risk/reward ratio of 1.60, Pinnacle offers acceptable but not compelling return potential — making it a hold rather than an aggressive add at current levels.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus price targets are revised above $115 within 12 months following continued strong earnings growth, improving the upside margin to above 20%.
Counter9.2% implied upside for a regional bank with 156% earnings growth and a PEG of 0.13 actually represents underpricing relative to quality — the constraint is the short-term technical picture, not the fundamental case.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.5 |
| ROA | 0.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 25%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 2.7 |
- ▸Strong growth: 137% YoY
Momentum
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.8 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 6.5 |
- ▸Oversold in uptrend (RSI 18)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 8.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 23%
Insider
6.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 8.3 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $704,675 (0.005% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.6 |
| quality rank | 1.6 |
| growth rank | 9.9 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
9.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.7 |
| 52w position | 7.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.2 |
| days to cover | 6.8 |
| volatility | 7.0 |
| put call | 7.4 |
| implied vol | 5.5 |
| beta | 6.9 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.3 |
| dividend safety | 9.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:2.1>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:43d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.1<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.12
Upside
+10.6%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupOversold Bounce — Oversold RSI 18, near Bollinger lower, volume surge
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:2.1>=1.5. Top dim: Technical at 9.1; weakest: Momentum at 4.1. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 9.1, Value at 8.2, and Sentiment at 7.0; the weakest are Momentum at 4.1, Peer rank at 4.8, and Quality at 5.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.12 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Earnings Growth
Trip ifEarnings growth falls below 20% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the high-growth phase has ended.
- P2Attractive Valuation For Growth
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 14x while earnings growth simultaneously decelerates below 30%, compressing the attractiveness of the PEG.
- P3Earnings Beat Track Record
Trip ifEarnings miss consensus estimates by more than 5% in 2 of the next 4 quarterly reports.
- P4Thin Upside Margin
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $88, representing a decline of more than 15% from current targets and implying the stock is at or above fair value.