Value
8.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.2 |
| P/S | 6.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.13
- ▸Attractively valued
PNFP · Why this verdict
Why Pinnacle Financial Partners, In (PNFP) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Pinnacle Financial Partners is delivering 156% year-over-year earnings growth — an unusually high figure for a regional bank — ranking as the industry growth leader within its peer group with a perfect 10/10 on both revenue and earnings growth scores, suggesting significant positive operating leverage in its current business mix. Growth breakdown | Earnings growth remains above 50% year-over-year for the next 2 quarterly reports as the growth rate normalizes but remains at an industry-leading level. | →Stable |
| Counter156% earnings growth in a bank often reflects a low prior-year comparison base due to elevated loan loss provisions or a one-time charge in the prior period — the growth rate may be optically inflated and will mean-revert sharply. | ||
Pinnacle Financial trades at a forward P/E of 8.1x and a PEG of 0.13 — one of the lowest PEG ratios in this analysis batch for a bank — with the overall value score at 8.1/10, suggesting the market has not yet fully priced in the growth rate the company is currently delivering. Valuation breakdown | The stock re-rates to a forward P/E above 11x within 12 months as earnings growth is sustained and analyst price targets approach $105. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional banks with high earnings growth driven by net interest margin expansion in a rising rate cycle frequently see multiple compression when rates stabilize or decline, making the current PEG of 0.13 a function of the rate cycle rather than durable business quality. | ||
Pinnacle has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 4.4%, maintaining consistent execution even as growth rates are elevated — the lone miss in January 2026 was only -1.1%, well within normal variance. Earnings | The company beats consensus estimates in the next 2 quarterly reports with at least a 3% positive surprise in each. | →Stable |
| CounterA 4.4% average beat rate is modest and the one miss (January 2026) was very close to expectations, suggesting the company does not have a strong structural advantage in setting beatable guidance targets. | ||
With only 9.2% implied upside to the analyst target of $104.87 from the current price of $96.08, and a risk/reward ratio of 1.60, Pinnacle offers acceptable but not compelling return potential — making it a hold rather than an aggressive add at current levels. Bear case | Analyst consensus price targets are revised above $115 within 12 months following continued strong earnings growth, improving the upside margin to above 20%. | →Stable |
| Counter9.2% implied upside for a regional bank with 156% earnings growth and a PEG of 0.13 actually represents underpricing relative to quality — the constraint is the short-term technical picture, not the fundamental case. | ||
Pinnacle Financial Partners is delivering 156% year-over-year earnings growth — an unusually high figure for a regional bank — ranking as the industry growth leader within its peer group with a perfect 10/10 on both revenue and earnings growth scores, suggesting significant positive operating leverage in its current business mix.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth remains above 50% year-over-year for the next 2 quarterly reports as the growth rate normalizes but remains at an industry-leading level.
Counter156% earnings growth in a bank often reflects a low prior-year comparison base due to elevated loan loss provisions or a one-time charge in the prior period — the growth rate may be optically inflated and will mean-revert sharply.
Pinnacle Financial trades at a forward P/E of 8.1x and a PEG of 0.13 — one of the lowest PEG ratios in this analysis batch for a bank — with the overall value score at 8.1/10, suggesting the market has not yet fully priced in the growth rate the company is currently delivering.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock re-rates to a forward P/E above 11x within 12 months as earnings growth is sustained and analyst price targets approach $105.
CounterRegional banks with high earnings growth driven by net interest margin expansion in a rising rate cycle frequently see multiple compression when rates stabilize or decline, making the current PEG of 0.13 a function of the rate cycle rather than durable business quality.
Pinnacle has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 4.4%, maintaining consistent execution even as growth rates are elevated — the lone miss in January 2026 was only -1.1%, well within normal variance.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company beats consensus estimates in the next 2 quarterly reports with at least a 3% positive surprise in each.
CounterA 4.4% average beat rate is modest and the one miss (January 2026) was very close to expectations, suggesting the company does not have a strong structural advantage in setting beatable guidance targets.
With only 9.2% implied upside to the analyst target of $104.87 from the current price of $96.08, and a risk/reward ratio of 1.60, Pinnacle offers acceptable but not compelling return potential — making it a hold rather than an aggressive add at current levels.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus price targets are revised above $115 within 12 months following continued strong earnings growth, improving the upside margin to above 20%.
Counter9.2% implied upside for a regional bank with 156% earnings growth and a PEG of 0.13 actually represents underpricing relative to quality — the constraint is the short-term technical picture, not the fundamental case.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Pinnacle Financial Partners is a regional bank with 156% year-over-year earnings growth, an attractive forward P/E of 8.1x with a PEG of 0.13, and an industry-leading growth score of 10/10 — trading at a modest 9.2% implied upside with acceptable asymmetry for a cautious hold position.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.1 |
| ROA | 0.5 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 25%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 156% YoY
Momentum
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.8 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 7.5 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.6 |
| quality rank | 1.5 |
| growth rank | 9.9 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.8 |
| support resistance | 2.8 |
| 52w position | 6.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.1 |
| days to cover | 6.3 |
| volatility | 6.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.8 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.9 |
- ▸Above max pain $75
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.7 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 149.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.0>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:17d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.9<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
0.87
Upside
+6.8%
Downside
7.8%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 17d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.0>=4.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Technical at 4.1. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 8.0, and Sentiment at 6.9; the weakest are Technical at 4.1, Peer rank at 4.8, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.87 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Earnings Growth
Trip ifEarnings growth falls below 20% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the high-growth phase has ended.
- P2Attractive Valuation For Growth
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 14x while earnings growth simultaneously decelerates below 30%, compressing the attractiveness of the PEG.
- P3Earnings Beat Track Record
Trip ifEarnings miss consensus estimates by more than 5% in 2 of the next 4 quarterly reports.
- P4Thin Upside Margin
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $88, representing a decline of more than 15% from current targets and implying the stock is at or above fair value.