Value
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.5 |
| P/S | 8.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.0 |
| PEG | 7.5 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.92
PLNT · Why this verdict
Why Planet Fitness (PLNT) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Planet Fitness is a high-quality fitness chain with a perfect 9-out-of-9 Piotroski F-Score and a perfect 4-for-4 earnings beat streak trading at a PEG of 0.86, but is currently in a confirmed technical downtrend with its 200-day moving average declining at 8.8% per month and falling analyst estimates.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Planet Fitness ranks best-in-class among leisure peers with a quality score of 7.7/10, a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, operating margins of 18%, and ranks in the top decile for both quality and growth within its peer group, reflecting the durability of its low-cost fitness membership model. Quality breakdown | Operating margin remains above 15% and the Piotroski F-Score stays at 8 or above for the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh margins in the low-cost gym segment can be competed away quickly if rivals undercut Planet Fitness's $10/month price point, and franchise-model revenue recognition can mask underlying unit economics weakness. | ||
Planet Fitness has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 10.5%, with actual EPS ranging from $0.73 to $0.86, demonstrating consistent ability to manage costs and grow membership above analyst expectations. Earnings | The company beats earnings estimates in the next 2 consecutive quarterly reports due in approximately 50 days. | ↑Improving |
| CounterForward earnings estimates are trending down by 6.3% in the last 30 days, which is a leading indicator that analysts expect upcoming results to disappoint despite the historical beat streak. | ||
At a forward P/E of 13.9x and PEG of 0.86, Planet Fitness is attractively priced relative to earnings growth within the leisure sector, with a value score of 7.5/10 and analyst consensus pointing to 33% upside to a price target of approximately $60. Valuation breakdown | The stock reaches the analyst target range near $60 within 12 months as technical headwinds resolve and the growth rate is sustained. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA PEG of 0.86 is only attractive if the earnings growth rate holds — falling estimates of -6.3% over 30 days suggest the 'G' in the PEG denominator is about to shrink, making the current multiple less attractive than it appears. | ||
The stock is in a confirmed downtrend with the 200-day moving average declining at 8.8% per month — the steepest moving average slope decline across this analysis batch — and high short interest of 11% adds additional selling pressure that must be resolved before the fundamental case can be expressed. Warnings | The stock reclaims its 200-day moving average and holds above it for 20 consecutive trading days, confirming the downtrend has ended. | ↑Improving |
| CounterSteep 200-day moving average declines sometimes represent capitulation — the worst-case scenario for bearish price action — and high short interest can fuel sharp recovery moves when fundamentals surprise positively. | ||
Planet Fitness ranks best-in-class among leisure peers with a quality score of 7.7/10, a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, operating margins of 18%, and ranks in the top decile for both quality and growth within its peer group, reflecting the durability of its low-cost fitness membership model.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Operating margin remains above 15% and the Piotroski F-Score stays at 8 or above for the next 4 quarters.
CounterHigh margins in the low-cost gym segment can be competed away quickly if rivals undercut Planet Fitness's $10/month price point, and franchise-model revenue recognition can mask underlying unit economics weakness.
Planet Fitness has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 10.5%, with actual EPS ranging from $0.73 to $0.86, demonstrating consistent ability to manage costs and grow membership above analyst expectations.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- The company beats earnings estimates in the next 2 consecutive quarterly reports due in approximately 50 days.
CounterForward earnings estimates are trending down by 6.3% in the last 30 days, which is a leading indicator that analysts expect upcoming results to disappoint despite the historical beat streak.
At a forward P/E of 13.9x and PEG of 0.86, Planet Fitness is attractively priced relative to earnings growth within the leisure sector, with a value score of 7.5/10 and analyst consensus pointing to 33% upside to a price target of approximately $60.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock reaches the analyst target range near $60 within 12 months as technical headwinds resolve and the growth rate is sustained.
CounterA PEG of 0.86 is only attractive if the earnings growth rate holds — falling estimates of -6.3% over 30 days suggest the 'G' in the PEG denominator is about to shrink, making the current multiple less attractive than it appears.
The stock is in a confirmed downtrend with the 200-day moving average declining at 8.8% per month — the steepest moving average slope decline across this analysis batch — and high short interest of 11% adds additional selling pressure that must be resolved before the fundamental case can be expressed.
↑ImprovingWarnings
- Expectation
- The stock reclaims its 200-day moving average and holds above it for 20 consecutive trading days, confirming the downtrend has ended.
CounterSteep 200-day moving average declines sometimes represent capitulation — the worst-case scenario for bearish price action — and high short interest can fuel sharp recovery moves when fundamentals surprise positively.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 5.6 |
| Gross margin | 7.8 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 8.9 |
| Current ratio | 7.2 |
| FCF quality | 5.4 |
| Moat | 7.0 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 18%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 71% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
- ▸High-quality business
Growth
7.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.4 |
| EPS growth | 8.0 |
Momentum
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.9 |
| Analyst rating | 7.4 |
| Price target | 8.1 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.38 (n=2)
- ▸Analyst upside: 24%
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $478,750 (0.011% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.3 |
| quality rank | 9.2 |
| growth rank | 8.6 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.5 |
| support resistance | 3.8 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.7 |
| days to cover | 6.0 |
| volatility | 4.4 |
| put call | 5.8 |
| implied vol | 2.7 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 6.8 |
- ▸High IV: 64%
Catalyst
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 4.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.4 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 12 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.92, quality 7.7/10, growth 7.7/10).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C2_GARP_WAIT|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:1.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.70
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.3<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (2)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:12d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
1.58
Upside
+11.3%
Downside
7.2%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 52
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 12d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -53% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The C-path quality+growth combination triggered the STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict: quality 7.7 and growth 7.7 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of 1.58 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 7.7, Growth at 7.7, and Sentiment at 7.5; the weakest are Technical at 2.1, Momentum at 4.3, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.1. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.58 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality And Margins Leadership
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 12% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Perfect Earnings Execution
Trip ifEarnings miss consensus estimates by more than 5% in 2 of the next 3 quarterly reports.
- P3Valuation Growth Discount
Trip ifAnalyst consensus earnings estimates decline by more than 15% from current levels over the next 6 months.
- P4Technical Downtrend Headwind
Trip ifStock price drops below $42, exceeding a 16% decline from current levels, confirming accelerating technical deterioration.