Progressive Corporation (The) (PGR) Q3 2026 earnings — TrendMatrix coverage
Reported
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Full disclosure
Key numbers
- Adjusted EPS
- $4.60
- Estimate
- $4.41
- Surprise
- +4.2%
- Score at report (before → after)
- 5.8 → 5.7/10
Revenue for this quarter isn’t shown: the reported figure hasn’t cleared TrendMatrix’s freshness and sanity checks yet, and consensus revenue isn’t tracked. EPS above is the available figure.
How the report landed
Progressive Corporation (The) (PGR) beat the $4.41 estimate with adjusted EPS of $4.60 — a clear 4.2% upside surprise. TrendMatrix's engine moved from Buy (Wait) (5.8/10) to Hold at 5.7/10 after the report — the engine's score fell despite the beat.
Coverage in the report window
- Progressive Q3 Adj. EPS $4.60 Beats $4.36 Estimate, Sales $21.869B Miss $22.495B Estimate — benzinga, 2026-10-14
Where TrendMatrix's rating stands now
TrendMatrix currently rates PGR Hold at 5.6/10.
3 of the last 4 quarters beat the estimate; this quarter's +4.2% surprise compares with a +2.9% four-quarter average.
What supports the rating
- Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
- Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
What argues against it
- Concentration risk — Product: Personal Lines (87.0%)
- Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
- Weak growth
This section and the ones below it reflect TrendMatrix’s latest engine read — they update after the report date and are not frozen to it.
The levels TrendMatrix's engine tracks
- Current price
- $219.63
- Price target
- $252.57
- Stop
- $208.61
- Upside to target
- +15.0%
Forward estimates sit below the trailing run-rate (13.1× forward vs 11.2× trailing) — consensus expects earnings to decline from here.
Model outputs from TrendMatrix’s engine as of 2026-10-15 — shown for context, not personalized investment advice.
PGR at TrendMatrix's latest read
For financials, the EPS print is only half the story: credit costs, reserve builds, and rate sensitivity decide how a quarter actually lands.
- Industry
- Insurance - Property & Casualty
- Market cap
- $123.89B
- P/E (fwd)
- 13.1
- P/E (ttm)
- 11.2
- 52-week range
- $189.20–$239.38
- Off 52-week high
- 8.3%
- RSI (14)
- 66
- Volume vs avg
- 0.03×
- Score today
- 5.6/10