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PBAPembina Pipeline Corp.Sell5.4·$48.41-0.39%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Pembina Pipeline trades near a 52-week high with strong operating margins of 22%, but it has surpassed analyst targets with negative upside of 26.6%, posted two consecutive earnings misses, and carries falling on-balance volume — making the risk/reward unfavorable at current levels.

Thesis pillars

  • Dividend Yield Trap RiskStable
  • Strong Operating Margin ProfileStable
  • Target Exhaustion OvervaluationImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Pembina Pipeline Corp. (PBA) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellGrowthModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Midstream

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $48.41 — A.R:R is negative (-3.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Pembina Pipeline Corporation provides energy transportation and midstream services. It operates through three segments: Pipelines, Facilities, and Marketing & New Ventures. The Pipelines segment operates conventional, oil sands and heavy oil, and transmission assets with a... Read more

$48.41-16.3% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#38 of 46 Oil & Gas Midstream
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield5.16%
IncomeYield4.31%(5y avg 5.39%)Payout100.88%at-risk
Stop $46.67Target $55.67(default +15%)A.R:R -3.3:1
Analyst target$47.65-1.6%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $48.41 — A.R:R is negative (-3.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 61d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-05
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 5, 202661d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.7
P/E (Fwd)21.3
Mkt Cap$28.2B
EV/EBITDA12.4
Profit Mgn22.4%
ROE10.5%
Rev Growth20.1%
Beta0.70
Dividend4.31%
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C9.67bearish
IV47%normal
Max Pain$55+13.6% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.2
Dividend Safety
3.0
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2MDividend: 4.3%
GatesMomentum 4.4<4.5A.R:R -3.3=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 61d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
48 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $47.40Resistance $49.81

Price Targets

$47
$56
A.Upside-16.3%
A.R:R-3.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-16.3% upside)
! News modifier -1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! momentum at 4.4 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-05 (61d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PBA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $48.41 — A.R:R is negative (-3.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $46.67. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PBA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $55.67 (-16.3% upside). Prior stop was $46.67. Stop-loss: $46.67.

What are the risks of investing in PBA?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is PBA overvalued or undervalued?

Pembina Pipeline Corp. trades at a P/E of 23.7 (forward 21.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PBA?

22 analysts cover PBA with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $48.

What does Pembina Pipeline Corp. do?Pembina Pipeline Corporation provides energy transportation and midstream services. It operates through three segments:...

Pembina Pipeline Corporation provides energy transportation and midstream services. It operates through three segments: Pipelines, Facilities, and Marketing & New Ventures. The Pipelines segment operates conventional, oil sands and heavy oil, and transmission assets with a transportation capacity of 3.0 million of barrels of oil equivalent per day, and the ground storage capacity of 10 million of barrels serving markets and basins across North America. The Facilities segment offers infrastructure that provides customers with crude oil, natural gas, condensate, and natural gas liquids (NGLs), including ethane, propane, butane, and condensate; and includes 430 thousands of barrels of NGL fractionation capacity, 21 million of barrels of cavern storage capacity, and various oil batteries, associated pipeline, and rail terminalling facilities and a liquefied propane export facility. The Marketing & New Ventures segment buys and sells hydrocarbon liquids and natural gas originating in the Western Canadian sedimentary basin and other basins. Pembina Pipeline Corporation was incorporated in 1954 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

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