Value
9.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.0 |
| P/S | 9.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 5.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.14
- ▸Attractively valued
PAM · Why this verdict
Why Pampa Energia (PAM) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 and net margins of 20% indicate broad-based financial health across profitability, leverage, and efficiency, supported by positive news sentiment of plus 1.0 on recent news flow. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score remains at 8 or higher and net margin holds above 15% for at least 3 of the next 4 reporting periods. | →Stable |
| CounterArgentine company financial statements are prepared under inflationary accounting standards; Piotroski ratios derived from these statements may be less comparable to non-inflationary-economy peers. | ||
Pampa Energia achieved an overall score of 7.1 out of 10 — the highest in this batch — driven by maximum growth scores on both revenue (38% year-over-year) and earnings, placing it at the top of its industry peer group for growth. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth remains above 20% year-over-year for at least 2 of the next 4 quarters and the overall score stays above 6.5. | →Stable |
| CounterArgentine energy companies' reported growth is heavily influenced by currency devaluation, inflation adjustments, and government tariff decisions that can reverse rapidly; the 38% growth may not reflect real economic expansion. | ||
The company beat earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 56.7%, including a 140% beat in the most recent quarter, indicating either highly conservative management guidance or genuine operational outperformance. Earnings | Earnings per share beats consensus estimates in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters with positive surprise of at least 10%. | →Stable |
| CounterThe single miss came in 53% below estimates, demonstrating the same volatility in both directions; extreme average surprise reflects unpredictable earnings rather than consistent execution. | ||
Free cash flow is negative 175% of net income — the most extreme negative conversion in the dataset — indicating very large capital expenditures or working capital demands that consume all reported earnings and require significant external funding. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow deficit as a percentage of net income narrows to below 50% within 4 reporting periods as capital investment phases complete. | →Stable |
| CounterArgentine energy infrastructure companies regularly invest heavily in power generation capacity; negative free cash flow during an expansion cycle is expected and consistent with a capital allocation strategy that drives future earnings growth. | ||
A Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 and net margins of 20% indicate broad-based financial health across profitability, leverage, and efficiency, supported by positive news sentiment of plus 1.0 on recent news flow.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score remains at 8 or higher and net margin holds above 15% for at least 3 of the next 4 reporting periods.
CounterArgentine company financial statements are prepared under inflationary accounting standards; Piotroski ratios derived from these statements may be less comparable to non-inflationary-economy peers.
Pampa Energia achieved an overall score of 7.1 out of 10 — the highest in this batch — driven by maximum growth scores on both revenue (38% year-over-year) and earnings, placing it at the top of its industry peer group for growth.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 20% year-over-year for at least 2 of the next 4 quarters and the overall score stays above 6.5.
CounterArgentine energy companies' reported growth is heavily influenced by currency devaluation, inflation adjustments, and government tariff decisions that can reverse rapidly; the 38% growth may not reflect real economic expansion.
The company beat earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 56.7%, including a 140% beat in the most recent quarter, indicating either highly conservative management guidance or genuine operational outperformance.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings per share beats consensus estimates in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters with positive surprise of at least 10%.
CounterThe single miss came in 53% below estimates, demonstrating the same volatility in both directions; extreme average surprise reflects unpredictable earnings rather than consistent execution.
Free cash flow is negative 175% of net income — the most extreme negative conversion in the dataset — indicating very large capital expenditures or working capital demands that consume all reported earnings and require significant external funding.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow deficit as a percentage of net income narrows to below 50% within 4 reporting periods as capital investment phases complete.
CounterArgentine energy infrastructure companies regularly invest heavily in power generation capacity; negative free cash flow during an expansion cycle is expected and consistent with a capital allocation strategy that drives future earnings growth.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Pampa Energia delivered 38% year-over-year revenue growth with a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, strong positive news sentiment, and a forward price-to-earnings of 6.4x, making it the highest-scoring stock in this batch at 7.1 out of 10, though negative free cash flow at 175% of net income and small-cap volatility remain material risks.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.0 |
| ROA | 2.2 |
| Gross margin | 2.4 |
| Op margin | 7.7 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.1 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 6.1 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 20%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -175% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 38% YoY
Momentum
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 1.3 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 25, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.6%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 44%
Insider
3.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 4.3 |
| holder change | 5.2 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $24,202,684 (0.559% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.0 |
| quality rank | 6.5 |
| growth rank | 7.8 |
Technical
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.6 |
| support resistance | 8.3 |
| 52w position | 7.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.4 |
| days to cover | 9.5 |
| volatility | 3.6 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 4.6 |
| debt equity | 8.0 |
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:3.6>=1.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:31d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.3<4.5
- INSIDER:0.56%=HEAVY
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.57
Upside
+25.5%
Downside
7.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $4.3B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:3.6>=1.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Momentum at 3.3. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 9.2, and Technical at 7.7; the weakest are Momentum at 3.3, Insider at 3.8, and Quality at 5.5. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.57 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Overall Score And Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Earnings Beat With Massive Surprises
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
- P3Perfect Piotroski Strong Margins
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score drops below 7 in any single reporting period.
- P4Negative Free Cash Flow Red Flag
Trip ifFree cash flow deficit exceeds 300% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.