Value
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.8 |
| P/S | 9.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.3 |
| PEG | 4.7 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 17.1x
- ▸PEG: 1.84
OTIS · Why this verdict
Why Otis Worldwide (OTIS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Otis Worldwide combines a near-perfect Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 with 18% analyst upside and improving technical momentum including a recovering moving average crossover, though its heavy international revenue exposure of 71% and an elevated put-to-call ratio of 3.53 create meaningful downside risk.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Otis earned a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, indicating broad-based improvement in profitability, balance sheet strength, and operating efficiency metrics across the business. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski F-Score remains at 7 or higher over the next 4 reporting periods, and return on assets holds above its current level. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA lack of a recognized competitive moat and below-average gross margin score of 2.1 out of 10 suggest quality may be concentrated in accounting ratios rather than durable business advantages. | ||
Analysts carry an average price target implying 31% upside from the current price of $71.81, and the stock has a favorable risk-to-reward ratio of 4.89 based on the analyst target relative to the technical stop level. Targets | The stock price rises above $80 within 12 months and at least 5 of the covering analysts maintain or raise their price targets. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst targets have already been revised once and the earnings record shows 1 miss and 1 inline in the last 4 quarters, suggesting execution risk that could trigger target cuts. | ||
With 71% of revenues from international operations, Otis faces material exposure to currency fluctuations, geopolitical risk, and country-specific regulatory changes that are not captured in its domestic financial ratios. Bear case | International revenue mix remains below 75% and no single international region contributes more than 40% of total revenue over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterInternational diversification across geographies may dampen single-country risk, and infrastructure demand in emerging markets supports long-term elevator and escalator demand. | ||
The put-to-call ratio stands at 3.53, one of the most elevated readings in the dataset, indicating significant bearish options positioning that suggests professional hedgers expect downside. Options | The put-to-call ratio falls below 2.0 within 6 months as price stabilizes or recovers, removing the technical overhang from options positioning. | →Stable |
| CounterElevated put-to-call ratios can be contrarian bullish signals when they reflect panic hedging rather than informed bearish conviction, and the stock has shown upward momentum in OBV. | ||
Otis earned a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, indicating broad-based improvement in profitability, balance sheet strength, and operating efficiency metrics across the business.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski F-Score remains at 7 or higher over the next 4 reporting periods, and return on assets holds above its current level.
CounterA lack of a recognized competitive moat and below-average gross margin score of 2.1 out of 10 suggest quality may be concentrated in accounting ratios rather than durable business advantages.
Analysts carry an average price target implying 31% upside from the current price of $71.81, and the stock has a favorable risk-to-reward ratio of 4.89 based on the analyst target relative to the technical stop level.
↓DeterioratingTargets
- Expectation
- The stock price rises above $80 within 12 months and at least 5 of the covering analysts maintain or raise their price targets.
CounterAnalyst targets have already been revised once and the earnings record shows 1 miss and 1 inline in the last 4 quarters, suggesting execution risk that could trigger target cuts.
With 71% of revenues from international operations, Otis faces material exposure to currency fluctuations, geopolitical risk, and country-specific regulatory changes that are not captured in its domestic financial ratios.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- International revenue mix remains below 75% and no single international region contributes more than 40% of total revenue over the next 12 months.
CounterInternational diversification across geographies may dampen single-country risk, and infrastructure demand in emerging markets supports long-term elevator and escalator demand.
The put-to-call ratio stands at 3.53, one of the most elevated readings in the dataset, indicating significant bearish options positioning that suggests professional hedgers expect downside.
→StableOptions
- Expectation
- The put-to-call ratio falls below 2.0 within 6 months as price stabilizes or recovers, removing the technical overhang from options positioning.
CounterElevated put-to-call ratios can be contrarian bullish signals when they reflect panic hedging rather than informed bearish conviction, and the stock has shown upward momentum in OBV.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 8.8 |
| Gross margin | 2.0 |
| Op margin | 6.4 |
| Net margin | 5.1 |
| Current ratio | 3.4 |
| FCF quality | 6.5 |
| Moat | 4.9 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
4.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.0 |
| EPS growth | 4.7 |
Momentum
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.4 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 1.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 73)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 6.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.2 |
| quality rank | 5.2 |
| growth rank | 3.1 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.8 |
| support resistance | 1.3 |
| 52w position | 6.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.6 |
| days to cover | 7.6 |
| volatility | 6.8 |
| put call | 7.8 |
| implied vol | 6.7 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.8 |
- ▸Above max pain $48
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.8 |
| dividend safety | 8.0 |
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 2.3% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:84d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.7>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
-0.19
Upside
-2.8%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 73
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.2 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Risk (lower is worse) at 6.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.19 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 6.8, Momentum at 6.7, and Sentiment at 6.4; the weakest are Technical at 3.2, Growth at 4.3, and Catalyst at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.19 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Financial Health Score
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score drops below 6 in any single reporting period.
- P2Analyst Upside Target Gap
Trip ifThe average analyst price target falls below $75, representing a decline of more than 10% from the current target.
- P3International Revenue Concentration
Trip ifInternational revenue share rises above 78% for 2 consecutive reporting periods.
- P4Elevated Put Call Ratio Signal
Trip ifPut-to-call ratio rises above 5.0 and price drops below $65.