Value
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.6 |
| P/S | 9.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.9 |
| PEG | 5.4 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.2x
- ▸PEG: 1.40
OTIS · Why this verdict
Why Otis Worldwide (OTIS) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Otis Worldwide combines a near-perfect Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 with 18% analyst upside and improving technical momentum including a recovering moving average crossover, though its heavy international revenue exposure of 71% and an elevated put-to-call ratio of 3.53 create meaningful downside risk.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Otis earned a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, indicating broad-based improvement in profitability, balance sheet strength, and operating efficiency metrics across the business. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski F-Score remains at 7 or higher over the next 4 reporting periods, and return on assets holds above its current level. | →Stable |
| CounterA lack of a recognized competitive moat and below-average gross margin score of 2.1 out of 10 suggest quality may be concentrated in accounting ratios rather than durable business advantages. | ||
Analysts carry an average price target implying 31% upside from the current price of $71.81, and the stock has a favorable risk-to-reward ratio of 4.89 based on the analyst target relative to the technical stop level. Targets | The stock price rises above $80 within 12 months and at least 5 of the covering analysts maintain or raise their price targets. | Tripped↑Improving |
| CounterAnalyst targets have already been revised once and the earnings record shows 1 miss and 1 inline in the last 4 quarters, suggesting execution risk that could trigger target cuts. | ||
With 71% of revenues from international operations, Otis faces material exposure to currency fluctuations, geopolitical risk, and country-specific regulatory changes that are not captured in its domestic financial ratios. Bear case | International revenue mix remains below 75% and no single international region contributes more than 40% of total revenue over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterInternational diversification across geographies may dampen single-country risk, and infrastructure demand in emerging markets supports long-term elevator and escalator demand. | ||
The put-to-call ratio stands at 3.53, one of the most elevated readings in the dataset, indicating significant bearish options positioning that suggests professional hedgers expect downside. Options | The put-to-call ratio falls below 2.0 within 6 months as price stabilizes or recovers, removing the technical overhang from options positioning. | Tripped↑Improving |
| CounterElevated put-to-call ratios can be contrarian bullish signals when they reflect panic hedging rather than informed bearish conviction, and the stock has shown upward momentum in OBV. | ||
Otis earned a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, indicating broad-based improvement in profitability, balance sheet strength, and operating efficiency metrics across the business.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski F-Score remains at 7 or higher over the next 4 reporting periods, and return on assets holds above its current level.
CounterA lack of a recognized competitive moat and below-average gross margin score of 2.1 out of 10 suggest quality may be concentrated in accounting ratios rather than durable business advantages.
Analysts carry an average price target implying 31% upside from the current price of $71.81, and the stock has a favorable risk-to-reward ratio of 4.89 based on the analyst target relative to the technical stop level.
Tripped↑ImprovingTargets
- Expectation
- The stock price rises above $80 within 12 months and at least 5 of the covering analysts maintain or raise their price targets.
CounterAnalyst targets have already been revised once and the earnings record shows 1 miss and 1 inline in the last 4 quarters, suggesting execution risk that could trigger target cuts.
With 71% of revenues from international operations, Otis faces material exposure to currency fluctuations, geopolitical risk, and country-specific regulatory changes that are not captured in its domestic financial ratios.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- International revenue mix remains below 75% and no single international region contributes more than 40% of total revenue over the next 12 months.
CounterInternational diversification across geographies may dampen single-country risk, and infrastructure demand in emerging markets supports long-term elevator and escalator demand.
The put-to-call ratio stands at 3.53, one of the most elevated readings in the dataset, indicating significant bearish options positioning that suggests professional hedgers expect downside.
Tripped↑ImprovingOptions
- Expectation
- The put-to-call ratio falls below 2.0 within 6 months as price stabilizes or recovers, removing the technical overhang from options positioning.
CounterElevated put-to-call ratios can be contrarian bullish signals when they reflect panic hedging rather than informed bearish conviction, and the stock has shown upward momentum in OBV.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 8.9 |
| Gross margin | 2.1 |
| Op margin | 6.2 |
| Net margin | 5.1 |
| Current ratio | 3.3 |
| FCF quality | 7.7 |
| Moat | 4.9 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.1 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 0.9 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 2.8 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend
- ▸Volume surge (2.2x avg) on selloff
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 9.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 36%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $125,184 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.2 |
| quality rank | 5.1 |
| growth rank | 3.9 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 8.8 |
| 52w position | 4.2 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.7 |
| days to cover | 6.7 |
| volatility | 5.8 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 7.6 |
| beta | 7.7 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.2 |
| dividend safety | 8.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 0 days
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 2.3% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:3.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.49
Upside
+18.6%
Downside
5.3%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Insider at 7.3 (strongest), but MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5 also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.3, Technical at 7.2, and Growth at 7.0; the weakest are Momentum at 3.4, Peer rank at 5.6, and Quality at 5.9. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.49 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Financial Health Score
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score drops below 6 in any single reporting period.
- P2Analyst Upside Target GapTripped
Trip ifThe average analyst price target falls below $75, representing a decline of more than 10% from the current target.
- P3International Revenue Concentration
Trip ifInternational revenue share rises above 78% for 2 consecutive reporting periods.
- P4Elevated Put Call Ratio SignalTripped
Trip ifPut-to-call ratio rises above 5.0 and price drops below $65.