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OCFCOceanFirst Financial Corp.Sell5.1·$19.53+0.26%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

OceanFirst Financial Corp. trades at a reasonable forward P/E of 7.7x with steady net margins of 18%, but an extremely elevated put/call ratio of 6.50, below-average quality fundamentals, and limited growth make it a hold rather than a buy at current prices.

Thesis pillars

  • Reasonable Valuation Forward PeStable
  • Elevated Put Call RiskDeteriorating
  • Weak Growth Below TrendDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

OceanFirst Financial Corp. (OCFC) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellValueModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Earnings in 5 days (2026-07-30). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $19.53 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (69.2%).

OceanFirst Financial Corp. operates as the bank holding company for OceanFirst Bank N.A. that provides community banking services to retail and commercial customers in the United States. The company accepts deposit products, such as money market accounts, savings accounts,... Read more

$19.53-3.3% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#210 of 223 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield4.11%(5y avg 4.22%)Payout67.80%
Stop $18.74Target $19.91(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$21.75+11.4%6 analysts
$19.91our TP
$19.53price
$21.75mean
$19
$24

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $19.53 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (69.2%). Chart setup: RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-26
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 20265d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Positive insider activity
Risks
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (69.2%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Earnings in 5 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.4
P/E (Fwd)8.5
Mkt Cap$1.7B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn17.6%
ROE4.1%
Rev Growth8.5%
Beta0.96
Dividend4.11%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

IV119%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHloan_portfoliocommercial real estate loans69%
    10-K Item 1A: '$7.63 billion, or 69.2%, of the Company's total loans consisted of commercial real estate'
  • MEDIUMloan_portfolioinvestor owned commercial real estate loans49%
    10-K Item 1: '$5.42 billion, or 49.1% of total loans, were investor owned commercial real estate, multi-family, and construction loans'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-06-01Item 2.01MEDIUM
    OceanFirst completed its previously announced merger with Flushing Financial Corporation effective June 1, 2026; Flushing merged into OceanFirst and Flushing Bank merged into OceanFirst Bank, with OceanFirst as the surviving corporation.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.7
Value Rank
2.8
Growth Rank
2.9

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
2.5
Revenue Growth
4.6
GatesMomentum 4.2<4.5A.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
59 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $18.52Resistance $20.32

Price Targets

$19
$20
A.Upside-3.3%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.3% upside)
! momentum at 4.2 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OCFC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $19.53 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (69.2%). Chart setup: RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $18.74. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OCFC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $19.91 (-3.3% upside). Prior stop was $18.74. Stop-loss: $18.74.

What are the risks of investing in OCFC?

Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (69.2%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings in 5 days (event risk).

Is OCFC overvalued or undervalued?

OceanFirst Financial Corp. trades at a P/E of 16.4 (forward 8.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about OCFC?

13 analysts cover OCFC with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $22.

What does OceanFirst Financial Corp. do?OceanFirst Financial Corp. operates as the bank holding company for OceanFirst Bank N.A. that provides community...

OceanFirst Financial Corp. operates as the bank holding company for OceanFirst Bank N.A. that provides community banking services to retail and commercial customers in the United States. The company accepts deposit products, such as money market accounts, savings accounts, interest-bearing checking accounts, non-interest-bearing accounts, and time deposits, including brokered deposits. It also offers commercial real estate, multi-family, land loans, construction, and commercial and industrial loans; fixed-rate and adjustable-rate mortgage loans that are secured by one-to-four family residences; and consumer loans, such as home equity loans and lines of credit, student loans, loans on savings accounts, overdraft line of credit, and other consumer loans. In addition, the company invests in mortgage-backed securities, securities issued by the U.S. government and agencies, corporate securities, and other investments; and provides bankcard services, trust and asset management products and services, deposit account services, sales of loans and investments, bank owned life insurance and commercial loan swap income. The company was founded in 1902 and is headquartered in Toms River, New Jersey.

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