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OBXObsidian Therapeutics, Inc.Sell4.6·$16.82-1.58%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Obsidian Therapeutics shows a strong balance sheet and ample liquidity, but a persistent earnings-miss pattern, a speculative no-edge classification, and a current price-data outage keep the setup unactionable and position sizing capped near zero.

Thesis pillars

  • Price Data Outage Blocks Trade SetupDeteriorating
  • Strong Balance Sheet LiquidityStable
  • Persistent Earnings Miss PatternImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Obsidian Therapeutics, Inc. (OBX) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellQualityModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $16.82: Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10 and A.R:R 7.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Obsidian Therapeutics, Inc. operates as a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing engineered cell and gene therapies. The company is developing investigational therapies, including OBX-115, which is being evaluated in clinical trials for advanced solid tumors, advanced... Read more

$16.82+114.8% A.UpsideScore 4.6/10#210 of 259 Biotechnology
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield
Stop $15.64Target $36.12(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 7.7:1
Analyst target$42.50+152.7%2 analysts
$36.12our TP
$16.82price
$42.50mean
$43

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $16.82: Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10 and A.R:R 7.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-06

Recent Developments — Obsidian Therapeutics, Inc.

Generated 2026-09-06T16:46:58Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-7.9
Mkt Cap$1.0B
EV/EBITDA-14.0
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE
Rev Growth
Beta2.60
DividendNone
Rating analysts2

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9MoatNarrow

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
5.5
Current Ratio
7.9
Quality concerns

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Volume
2.1
Ma Position
3.5
Macd
3.9
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
2.6
Earnings History
3.3
Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
GatesMomentum 3.0<4.5A.R:R 7.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Speculative
RSI
46 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MASupport $14.57Resistance $39.00

Price Targets

$16
$36
A.Upside+114.8%
A.R:R7.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0)
! momentum at 3.0 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OBX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $16.82: Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10 and A.R:R 7.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $15.64. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OBX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $36.12 (+114.8% upside). Prior stop was $15.64. Stop-loss: $15.64.

What are the risks of investing in OBX?

Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0).

Is OBX overvalued or undervalued?

Obsidian Therapeutics, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -7.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

0
What does Obsidian Therapeutics, Inc. do?Obsidian Therapeutics, Inc. operates as a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing engineered cell and gene...

Obsidian Therapeutics, Inc. operates as a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing engineered cell and gene therapies. The company is developing investigational therapies, including OBX-115, which is being evaluated in clinical trials for advanced solid tumors, advanced melanoma, and relapsed refractory non-small cell lung cancer. It utilizes a proprietary Cytodriver technology platform designed to regulate protein function using FDA-approved small-molecule drugs and is advancing tumor-infiltrating lymphocyte (TIL) cell therapies that leverage mbIL15 to enhance persistence, antitumor activity, and clinical safety. Access to investigational therapies is currently limited to participation in clinical trials, and the company collaborates with other organizations to apply its platform technology. The company was founded in 2015 and is based in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

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