Value
4.3/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.6 |
| P/S | 6.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.2 |
| PEG | 8.6 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 51.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.73
NYAX · Why this verdict
Why Nayax (NYAX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue growing at 32% year-over-year places Nayax as an industry growth leader relative to peers, indicating strong product-market fit in payment infrastructure for unattended and self-service retail endpoints. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth rate remains above 20% year-over-year for the next 4 quarters, sustaining the company's lead relative to its peer group. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh growth rates in fintech infrastructure companies often compress as the addressable market saturates and larger competitors enter; the 32% rate may not be sustainable beyond 2 years. | ||
Analyst earnings estimates have risen 5.3% over the past 30 days, indicating that sell-side coverage is upgrading its view of the company's earnings trajectory, which historically precedes positive price performance. Catalyst breakdown | Earnings estimate revisions remain positive — with consensus estimates rising by at least 3% — over the next two reporting cycles. | →Stable |
| CounterEstimate revisions in lightly covered stocks (4 analysts) carry less signal than in well-covered names; a single analyst upgrade can move the consensus without reflecting broad market conviction. | ||
Free cash flow is negative at minus 65% relative to net income, meaning that reported profits are not translating into cash, indicating that the company is consuming capital faster than its accounting earnings suggest. Quality breakdown | FCF as a percentage of net income improves from minus 65% to better than minus 20% over the next 12 months as the company scales its payment infrastructure and reduces cash consumption. | →Stable |
| CounterEarly-stage payment infrastructure companies routinely invest heavily in terminal deployments and onboarding, so negative FCF reflects growth investment rather than operational failure. | ||
Two earnings misses in the last four quarters with the most recent miss at minus 70.6% relative to consensus indicates that analysts are struggling to model the company's cost trajectory, raising uncertainty about the path to profitability. Earnings | Earnings surprise improves to better than minus 10% in each of the next 2 quarters, demonstrating improving cost discipline and forecasting accuracy. | →Stable |
| CounterThe large magnitude misses may reflect lumpy investment spending rather than structural underperformance, and the 2 out of 4 miss rate is balanced by 2 beats including a plus 75% upside surprise. | ||
Revenue growing at 32% year-over-year places Nayax as an industry growth leader relative to peers, indicating strong product-market fit in payment infrastructure for unattended and self-service retail endpoints.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth rate remains above 20% year-over-year for the next 4 quarters, sustaining the company's lead relative to its peer group.
CounterHigh growth rates in fintech infrastructure companies often compress as the addressable market saturates and larger competitors enter; the 32% rate may not be sustainable beyond 2 years.
Analyst earnings estimates have risen 5.3% over the past 30 days, indicating that sell-side coverage is upgrading its view of the company's earnings trajectory, which historically precedes positive price performance.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings estimate revisions remain positive — with consensus estimates rising by at least 3% — over the next two reporting cycles.
CounterEstimate revisions in lightly covered stocks (4 analysts) carry less signal than in well-covered names; a single analyst upgrade can move the consensus without reflecting broad market conviction.
Free cash flow is negative at minus 65% relative to net income, meaning that reported profits are not translating into cash, indicating that the company is consuming capital faster than its accounting earnings suggest.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF as a percentage of net income improves from minus 65% to better than minus 20% over the next 12 months as the company scales its payment infrastructure and reduces cash consumption.
CounterEarly-stage payment infrastructure companies routinely invest heavily in terminal deployments and onboarding, so negative FCF reflects growth investment rather than operational failure.
Two earnings misses in the last four quarters with the most recent miss at minus 70.6% relative to consensus indicates that analysts are struggling to model the company's cost trajectory, raising uncertainty about the path to profitability.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings surprise improves to better than minus 10% in each of the next 2 quarters, demonstrating improving cost discipline and forecasting accuracy.
CounterThe large magnitude misses may reflect lumpy investment spending rather than structural underperformance, and the 2 out of 4 miss rate is balanced by 2 beats including a plus 75% upside surprise.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Nayax Ltd. is a high-growth software infrastructure company delivering 32% year-over-year revenue growth and rising analyst estimates, but consecutive earnings misses, negative free cash flow, and a stock price that has reached analyst targets limit the near-term risk/reward.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.7 |
| ROA | 2.0 |
| Gross margin | 5.6 |
| Op margin | 1.5 |
| Net margin | 3.5 |
| Current ratio | 7.4 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 6.1 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -65% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 32% YoY
Momentum
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 6.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 6.7 |
| erm sentiment | 7.1 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Estimates rising as sentiment proxy (+5.3%)
Insider
2.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $5,662,673 (0.216% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.3 |
| quality rank | 5.2 |
| growth rank | 8.0 |
Technical
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 2.6 |
| 52w position | 8.3 |
| gap | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.9 |
| days to cover | 9.2 |
| volatility | 2.9 |
| debt equity | 4.2 |
Catalyst
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 8.5 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.6 |
- ▸Estimates up 5.3% (30d)
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:8.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:40d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.4=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.43
Upside
-4.7%
Downside
11.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 58, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output fired on the hard insider floor: insider score of 2.5 sits below the 3.0 threshold (heavy insider selling), which triggers SELL regardless of other dimensions. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.4=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.43 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Momentum at 8.1, and Sentiment at 6.7; the weakest are Insider at 2.5, Technical at 3.7, and Peer rank at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.43 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Industry Leading Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth rate falls below 15% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Rising Estimate Revisions
Trip ifAnalyst consensus earnings estimates decline by more than 5% in any 30-day window.
- P3Negative Fcf Earnings Quality
Trip ifFCF as a percentage of net income falls below minus 100% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Consecutive Earnings Misses
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below minus 50% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.