Value
6.7/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.2 |
| P/S | 9.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 23.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.37
NWS · Why this verdict
Why News (NWS) is rated HOLD
Updated
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
News Corporation converts 153% of net income to free cash flow, reflecting minimal capital expenditure requirements and favorable working capital dynamics, which provides substantial financial flexibility for debt reduction, content investment, or shareholder returns. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion remains above 120% of net income for the next 4 quarters, confirming the cash quality is structurally embedded. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh FCF conversion relative to GAAP earnings can reflect aggressive asset depreciation schedules or working capital management that reverses in future periods, overstating the true cash generation quality. | ||
News Corporation beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 8.7%, demonstrating reliable execution across its media and digital real estate service businesses. Earnings | EPS surprise remains positive in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, maintaining the beat track record. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter showed only an inline result at 5.5% above estimates, and a media conglomerate facing secular advertising and print revenue headwinds may struggle to sustain beats as digital transition costs rise. | ||
The 200-day moving average is declining at negative 1.7% per month and on-balance volume is falling, both confirming a structural downtrend that reflects genuine selling pressure from institutional investors reducing their exposure. Momentum breakdown | The 200-day moving average slope turns flat or positive within 4 months, signaling that the downtrend is losing momentum and a recovery setup may be forming. | →Stable |
| CounterA negative 1.7% monthly slope is relatively modest, and with the stock near technical support levels and a Piotroski score of 8/9, a recovery bounce from oversold technical conditions could quickly reverse the trend. | ||
A 17% short interest indicates that a meaningful portion of market participants are positioned for further price decline, creating persistent selling pressure as existing shares are continuously reborrowed and reshorted as they are covered. Key risks | Short interest falls below 10% within 12 months as positive earnings and improving sentiment compresses bearish positioning. | →Stable |
| Counter17% short interest in a media conglomerate undergoing digital transformation may reflect short sellers correctly identifying structural headwinds in traditional media, rather than an overcrowded position susceptible to short covering. | ||
News Corporation converts 153% of net income to free cash flow, reflecting minimal capital expenditure requirements and favorable working capital dynamics, which provides substantial financial flexibility for debt reduction, content investment, or shareholder returns.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion remains above 120% of net income for the next 4 quarters, confirming the cash quality is structurally embedded.
CounterHigh FCF conversion relative to GAAP earnings can reflect aggressive asset depreciation schedules or working capital management that reverses in future periods, overstating the true cash generation quality.
News Corporation beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 8.7%, demonstrating reliable execution across its media and digital real estate service businesses.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise remains positive in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, maintaining the beat track record.
CounterThe most recent quarter showed only an inline result at 5.5% above estimates, and a media conglomerate facing secular advertising and print revenue headwinds may struggle to sustain beats as digital transition costs rise.
The 200-day moving average is declining at negative 1.7% per month and on-balance volume is falling, both confirming a structural downtrend that reflects genuine selling pressure from institutional investors reducing their exposure.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The 200-day moving average slope turns flat or positive within 4 months, signaling that the downtrend is losing momentum and a recovery setup may be forming.
CounterA negative 1.7% monthly slope is relatively modest, and with the stock near technical support levels and a Piotroski score of 8/9, a recovery bounce from oversold technical conditions could quickly reverse the trend.
A 17% short interest indicates that a meaningful portion of market participants are positioned for further price decline, creating persistent selling pressure as existing shares are continuously reborrowed and reshorted as they are covered.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 10% within 12 months as positive earnings and improving sentiment compresses bearish positioning.
Counter17% short interest in a media conglomerate undergoing digital transformation may reflect short sellers correctly identifying structural headwinds in traditional media, rather than an overcrowded position susceptible to short covering.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
News Corporation beats earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, converts 153% of net income to free cash flow, and carries a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, but the stock is in a confirmed downtrend with the 200-day moving average declining at negative 1.7% per month and 17% short interest.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.2 |
| ROA | 2.7 |
| Gross margin | 7.4 |
| Op margin | 4.0 |
| Net margin | 6.5 |
| Current ratio | 6.1 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 153% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.7 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 8.5 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 0.8 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
5.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.6 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.7 |
| quality rank | 6.9 |
| growth rank | 4.1 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.6 |
| support resistance | 4.0 |
| 52w position | 7.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.5 |
| days to cover | 2.3 |
| volatility | 5.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 7.6 |
| debt equity | 8.7 |
- ▸High short interest: 19%
- ▸High IV: 105%
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.8 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Dividend: 66.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.8>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:30d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
7.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 56, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:4.8>=4.5. Top dim: Growth at 7.3; weakest: Momentum at 4.8. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.3, Value at 6.7, and Catalyst at 6.4; the weakest are Momentum at 4.8, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.9, and Technical at 4.9. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Superior Free Cash Flow Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 80% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Earnings Beat Consistency
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P3Confirmed Price Downtrend
Trip ifThe 200-day moving average slope falls below -2% per month for 6 consecutive months.
- P4High Short Interest Headwind
Trip ifShort interest rises above 25% or the stock price falls below $25.