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NOMDNomad Foods LimitedSell5.6·$11.53+0.87%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Nomad Foods is a packaged foods company trading at an exceptionally cheap forward P/E of 5.5x and PEG of 0.07, but its quality score of 3.5 falls below the minimum threshold, revenue is declining 6%, and it sits in a confirmed long-term downtrend below its 200-day moving average.

Thesis pillars

  • Revenue Decline TrendStable
  • Extreme Valuation CheapnessStable
  • Below Floor Quality ScoreStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Nomad Foods Limited (NOMD) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 4/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.53: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Nomad Foods Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and distributes a range of frozen food products in the United Kingdom and internationally. The company offers frozen fish products, including fish fingers, coated fish, and natural fish; ready-to-cook... Read more

$11.53-1.1% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#9 of 32 Packaged Foods
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield9.78%
IncomeYield5.95%Payout65.09%
Stop $10.84Target $11.39(resistance)A.R:R -0.3:1
Analyst target$12.74+10.5%5 analysts
$11.39our TP
$11.53price
$12.74mean
$10
$15

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.53: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 72. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 31d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-07
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202631d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-3.7% upside)
Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (4/5): Revenue declining (-26.2% YoY), Margin compression (op margin -12.9%), High leverage (D/E 2.0)…

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.2
P/E (Fwd)6.2
Mkt Cap$1.6B
EV/EBITDA7.9
Profit Mgn4.4%
ROE5.2%
Rev Growth-5.9%
Beta0.68
Dividend5.95%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.36bullish
IV66%elevated
Max Pain$3-78.3% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.6
Bollinger
0.8
52w Position
3.3
Gap
5.0

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.3
Quality Rank
3.8
Value Rank
6.8

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
1.4
Roe
1.7
Net Margin
2.2
Roa
2.5
Moat
3.1
Operating Margin
3.7
Current Ratio
4.2
Piotroski F
4.4
Fcf Quality
7.9
No competitive moat
GatesA.R:R -0.3=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.2>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 31d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
72 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $9.83Resistance $11.62

Price Targets

$11
$11
A.Upside-1.2%
A.R:R-0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.7% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (4/5): Revenue declining (-26.2% YoY), Margin compression (op margin -12.9%), High leverage (D/E 2.0)…

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (31d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NOMD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.53: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 72. Prior stop was $10.84. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NOMD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $11.39 (-1.1% upside). Prior stop was $10.84. Stop-loss: $10.84.

What are the risks of investing in NOMD?

Target reached (-3.7% upside); Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (4/5): Revenue declining (-26.2% YoY), Margin compression (op margin -12.9%), High leverage (D/E 2.0)….

Is NOMD overvalued or undervalued?

Nomad Foods Limited trades at a P/E of 11.2 (forward 6.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NOMD?

11 analysts cover NOMD with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $13.

What does Nomad Foods Limited do?Nomad Foods Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and distributes a range of frozen food...

Nomad Foods Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and distributes a range of frozen food products in the United Kingdom and internationally. The company offers frozen fish products, including fish fingers, coated fish, and natural fish; ready-to-cook vegetable products, such as peas and spinach; and frozen poultry and meat products, comprising nuggets, grills, and burgers. It also provides meal products that contain ready-to-cook noodles, pasta, lasagna, pancakes, and other ready-made meals; ice creams, such as in-home and out-of-home ice creams; and other products comprising soups, pizzas, bakery goods, and meat substitutes. The company sells its products to supermarkets and food retail chains primarily under the Birds Eye, Green Cuisine, iglo, Findus, Aunt Bessie's, Goodfella's, Frikom, Ledo, La Cocinera, and Belviva brand names. Nomad Foods Limited was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Woking, the United Kingdom.

Related stocks: SENEA (Seneca Foods Corp.) · POST (Post Holdings, Inc.) · DAR (Darling Ingredients Inc.) · HLF (Herbalife Ltd.) · OFRM (Once Upon a Farm, PBC)
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