Value
7.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.6 |
| P/S | 5.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.23
NIC · Why this verdict
Why Nicolet Bankshares (NIC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Nicolet Bankshares has beaten earnings estimates in 4 consecutive quarters, achieved 46% revenue growth, and trades at a forward P/E of 11x with a PEG of 0.20, but the current price is within 3% of analyst consensus targets and low upside margin limits near-term conviction.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Nicolet Bankshares has beaten earnings estimates in each of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 7.5%, rising from $2.35 per share to $2.75 per share — a clear pattern of consistent execution and conservative guidance-setting. Catalyst breakdown | Nicolet continues its beat streak with a positive earnings surprise in the next quarterly report, the 5th consecutive beat. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRegional bank earnings beats can reverse quickly with credit quality deterioration or net interest margin compression from rate changes, and the beat streak does not guarantee forward consistency. | ||
Revenue grew 46% year-over-year, placing Nicolet as an industry growth leader among regional banks, likely reflecting successful organic growth and potential acquisition activity that expanded earning assets. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth sustains above 15% year-over-year over the next 4 quarters as acquired assets are integrated and loan portfolios expand. | ↓Deteriorating |
| Counter46% revenue growth in regional banking often reflects acquisition-driven expansion rather than organic growth; acquisition integration risk and potential goodwill impairment are material risks. | ||
At a forward P/E of 11x and PEG of 0.20, Nicolet offers a compelling growth-at-a-reasonable-price combination for a regional bank with industry-leading growth rates. Valuation breakdown | The stock re-rates to a forward P/E above 13x within 12 months as analysts recognize the sustained growth rate and raise price targets above $175. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRegional bank multiples are highly sensitive to the interest rate cycle; a declining rate environment compresses net interest margins and can rapidly erode the earnings growth underpinning the low PEG. | ||
Only 3.4% remains between the current price and analyst consensus price target, meaning near-term price appreciation requires either analyst target upgrades or the stock to modestly underperform its technical breakout setup. Bear case | Analyst consensus price target rises above $160 within 12 months following the next quarterly earnings beat. | ↑Improving |
| CounterWith earnings quality high and growth leadership confirmed, analyst target upgrades after each beat are a realistic pathway to restoring meaningful upside for holders. | ||
Nicolet Bankshares has beaten earnings estimates in each of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 7.5%, rising from $2.35 per share to $2.75 per share — a clear pattern of consistent execution and conservative guidance-setting.
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Nicolet continues its beat streak with a positive earnings surprise in the next quarterly report, the 5th consecutive beat.
CounterRegional bank earnings beats can reverse quickly with credit quality deterioration or net interest margin compression from rate changes, and the beat streak does not guarantee forward consistency.
Revenue grew 46% year-over-year, placing Nicolet as an industry growth leader among regional banks, likely reflecting successful organic growth and potential acquisition activity that expanded earning assets.
↓DeterioratingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth sustains above 15% year-over-year over the next 4 quarters as acquired assets are integrated and loan portfolios expand.
Counter46% revenue growth in regional banking often reflects acquisition-driven expansion rather than organic growth; acquisition integration risk and potential goodwill impairment are material risks.
At a forward P/E of 11x and PEG of 0.20, Nicolet offers a compelling growth-at-a-reasonable-price combination for a regional bank with industry-leading growth rates.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock re-rates to a forward P/E above 13x within 12 months as analysts recognize the sustained growth rate and raise price targets above $175.
CounterRegional bank multiples are highly sensitive to the interest rate cycle; a declining rate environment compresses net interest margins and can rapidly erode the earnings growth underpinning the low PEG.
Only 3.4% remains between the current price and analyst consensus price target, meaning near-term price appreciation requires either analyst target upgrades or the stock to modestly underperform its technical breakout setup.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus price target rises above $160 within 12 months following the next quarterly earnings beat.
CounterWith earnings quality high and growth leadership confirmed, analyst target upgrades after each beat are a realistic pathway to restoring meaningful upside for holders.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.0 |
| ROA | 0.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 30%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
7.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 4.4 |
- ▸Strong growth: 86% YoY
Momentum
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.1 |
| Analyst rating | 6.5 |
| Price target | 5.8 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.42 (n=2)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.8 |
| quality rank | 3.6 |
| growth rank | 9.6 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.1 |
| support resistance | 2.1 |
| 52w position | 9.7 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.7 |
| days to cover | 7.9 |
| volatility | 6.3 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 8.5 |
| beta | 9.1 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
Catalyst
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.5 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:88d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.32
Upside
-8.2%
Downside
6.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.6B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5. Top dim: Risk (lower is worse) at 7.7; weakest: Technical at 4.5. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 7.7, Insider at 7.3, and Growth at 7.2; the weakest are Technical at 4.5, Peer rank at 4.8, and Momentum at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.32 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Four Quarter Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P2Exceptional Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth declines below 10% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Attractive Valuation Peg
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 16x without earnings growth above 20% or analyst consensus target falls below $140.
- P4Thin Upside To Target
Trip ifPrice drops below $137 stop-loss level or analyst consensus target declines below $145.