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NICNicolet Bankshares Inc.Hold6.2·$162.49
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Nicolet Bankshares has beaten earnings estimates in 4 consecutive quarters, achieved 46% revenue growth, and trades at a forward P/E of 11x with a PEG of 0.20, but the current price is within 3% of analyst consensus targets and low upside margin limits near-term conviction.

Thesis pillars

  • Perfect Four Quarter Beat Streak→Stable
  • Exceptional Revenue Growth→Stable
  • Attractive Valuation Peg→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Nicolet Bankshares Inc. (NIC) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Earnings in 6 days (2026-10-20). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $162.49, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4).

Nicolet Bankshares is a Wisconsin-based bank holding company operating Nicolet National Bank, a commercial bank with 57 branches across Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota at year-end 2025, expanded to 114 after the February 2026 MidWestOne acquisition. Revenue is driven... Read more

$162.49+2.7% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#70 of 222 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield—
IncomeYield0.83%Payout14.78%sustainable
Stop $155.73Target $166.87(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.5:1
Analyst target$191.80+18.0%5 analysts
$166.87our TP
$162.49price
$191.80mean
$200

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $162.49, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Nicolet Bankshares Inc.

About Nicolet Bankshares Inc.

Nicolet Bankshares reported $9.2 billion in total assets, $6.8 billion in loans, and record net income of $151 million, or $9.78 per diluted share, for fiscal 2025, operating 57 branches principally across Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota. Nicolet National Bank, the principal operating subsidiary, holds a national bank charter supervised by the OCC. The February 13, 2026 acquisition of MidWestOne Financial Group added roughly $6 billion in assets and 57 branches, extending the network into Iowa and Denver, Colorado.

Nicolet earns revenue primarily from net interest income on its $6.8 billion loan portfolio funded by $7.7 billion in deposits, supplemented by service charges, trust and brokerage fees, card interchange income, and residential mortgage sales. The loan book covers commercial-related credits — including commercial and industrial loans, owner-occupied CRE, agricultural production and real estate, CRE investment, and construction — alongside residential real estate and consumer credits. Core clients are owner-managed small and medium-sized businesses and their individual owners. Nicolet Advisory Services and Nicolet Insurance Services provide ancillary brokerage, advisory, and crop insurance products. The company completed ten acquisitions from 2012 through 2025 plus the February 2026 MidWestOne merger, reflecting a growth model that blends organic lending with disciplined M&A.

Show full overview

Nicolet National Bank operates as a national bank under OCC examination authority, with the Federal Reserve supervising the parent holding company under the Bank Holding Company Act. Financial holding company status, elected in 2008, requires the bank to meet the OCC's capital adequacy thresholds and management standards on an ongoing basis; failure could restrict permissible activities including the insurance and advisory services offered through Nicolet Insurance and Nicolet Advisory. The Wisconsin Department of Financial Institutions provides an additional layer of state oversight, and the Parent Company relies on the Bank as its principal source of cash flow for dividends and debt service.

See also: Financial Services · Banks - Regional

From Nicolet Bankshares Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Oct 20, 20266d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4)
Earnings in 6 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.3
P/E (Fwd)12.1
Mkt Cap$3.4B
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn30.2%
ROE8.9%
Rev Growth86.1%
Beta0.64
Dividend0.83%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.06bullish
IV57%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesMomentum 4.3<4.5A.R:R 0.5 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
38 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $160.14Resistance $170.34

Price Targets

$156
$167
A.Upside+2.7%
A.R:R0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.7% upside)
! momentum at 4.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.5 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-20 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NIC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $162.49, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $166.87 (+2.7%), stop $155.73 (−4.3%), A.R:R 0.5:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NIC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $166.87 (+2.7% upside). Target $166.87 (+2.7%), stop $155.73 (−4.3%), A.R:R 0.5:1. Stop-loss: $155.73.

What are the risks of investing in NIC?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4); Earnings in 6 days (event risk).

Is NIC overvalued or undervalued?

Nicolet Bankshares Inc. trades at a P/E of 18.3 (forward 12.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about NIC?

10 analysts cover NIC with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $192.

What does Nicolet Bankshares Inc. do?Nicolet Bankshares is a Wisconsin-based bank holding company operating Nicolet National Bank, a commercial bank with 57...

Nicolet Bankshares is a Wisconsin-based bank holding company operating Nicolet National Bank, a commercial bank with 57 branches across Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota at year-end 2025, expanded to 114 after the February 2026 MidWestOne acquisition. Revenue is driven primarily by net interest income on $6.8 billion in loans and $7.7 billion in deposits, serving primarily small and medium-sized businesses; record net income reached $151 million in fiscal 2025.

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