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Nicolet Bankshares Inc. (NIC) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $139.63, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 8.5%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1).

Nicolet Bankshares is a Wisconsin-based bank and financial holding company operating through Nicolet National Bank, a full-service community bank with 57 branches at year-end 2025 (114 post-MidWestOne acquisition), serving Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, and Iowa with... Read more

$139.63+8.5% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#20 of 142 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield0.96%Payout15.04%sustainable
Stop $132.37Target $151.55(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.6:1
Analyst target$174.20+24.8%5 analysts
$151.55our TP
$139.63price
$174.20mean
$183

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $139.63, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 8.5%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 56d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Nicolet Bankshares Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Thin upside margin: 8.5%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.5
P/E (Fwd)10.6
Mkt Cap$3.0B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn31.1%
ROE7.7%
Rev Growth46.5%
Beta0.70
Dividend0.96%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

IV36%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicWisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota
    10-K Item 1: 'As of year-end 2025, Nicolet primarily operated in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-20Item 2.01MEDIUM
    Nicolet completed the merger with MidWestOne Financial Group, Inc. on February 13, 2026. MidWestOne merged into Nicolet; Nicolet issued ~6.6 million shares at 0.3175 exchange ratio. MidWestOne had ~$6B in assets.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-01-26Item 5.02LOW
    Compensation Committee approved equity awards of 101,000 total RSUs to executives for MidWestOne integration: Michael Daniels 20,000, others 10,000 each. Performance-based vesting over 3-year period through Dec 31, 2028.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesMomentum 4.0<4.5A.R:R 1.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 56d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
41 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $136.41Resistance $151.83

Price Targets

$132
$152
A.Upside+8.5%
A.R:R1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 4.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-14 (56d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NIC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $139.63, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 8.5%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $151.55 (+8.5%), stop $132.37 (−5.5%), A.R:R 1.6:1. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NIC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $151.55 (+8.5% upside). Target $151.55 (+8.5%), stop $132.37 (−5.5%), A.R:R 1.6:1. Stop-loss: $132.37.

What are the risks of investing in NIC?

Thin upside margin: 8.5%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1).

Is NIC overvalued or undervalued?

Nicolet Bankshares Inc. trades at a P/E of 16.5 (forward 10.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about NIC?

9 analysts cover NIC with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $174.

What does Nicolet Bankshares Inc. do?Nicolet Bankshares is a Wisconsin-based bank and financial holding company operating through Nicolet National Bank, a...

Nicolet Bankshares is a Wisconsin-based bank and financial holding company operating through Nicolet National Bank, a full-service community bank with 57 branches at year-end 2025 (114 post-MidWestOne acquisition), serving Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, and Iowa with commercial, agricultural, and consumer banking plus wealth management services. Total assets were $9.2B at December 31, 2025; 2025 net income was $151M ($9.78 diluted EPS).

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