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NGVCNatural Grocers by Vitamin CottSell5.0·$32.60+2.29%
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Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cott (NGVC) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Grocery Stores

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $32.60: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Weak overall score: 5.0/10.

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, retails natural and organic groceries, and dietary supplements in the United States. The company's stores offer natural and organic grocery products, such as organic produce; private label repackaged bulk... Read more

$32.60+20.8% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#7 of 11 Grocery Stores
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield2.13%
IncomeYield1.84%(5y avg 2.24%)Payout25.96%sustainable
Stop $30.32Target $39.38(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.6:1
Analyst target$46.33+42.1%3 analysts
$39.38our TP
$32.60price
$46.33mean
$54

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $32.60: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Weak overall score: 5.0/10. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 33d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202633d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Analyst upside: 21%
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5
Weak overall score: 5.0/10
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.7
P/E (Fwd)14.1
Mkt Cap$751M
EV/EBITDA10.8
Profit Mgn3.6%
ROE22.7%
Rev Growth0.5%
Beta1.28
Dividend1.84%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.50bearish
IV67%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.8
Bollinger
1.0
52w Position
3.5

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
2.6
Earnings Growth
2.7
GatesMomentum 6.5>=5.5A.R:R 1.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 33d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
57 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $28.27Resistance $32.97

Price Targets

$30
$39
A.Upside+20.8%
A.R:R1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Analyst Consensus

Analysts9
Consensus4.2/5
Avg Target$46

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (33d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NGVC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $32.60: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Weak overall score: 5.0/10. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $30.32. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NGVC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $39.38 (+20.8% upside). Prior stop was $30.32. Stop-loss: $30.32.

What are the risks of investing in NGVC?

Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Weak overall score: 5.0/10; Weak growth.

Is NGVC overvalued or undervalued?

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cott trades at a P/E of 15.7 (forward 14.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NGVC?

9 analysts cover NGVC with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $46.

What does Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cott do?Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, retails natural and organic groceries, and...

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, retails natural and organic groceries, and dietary supplements in the United States. The company's stores offer natural and organic grocery products, such as organic produce; private label repackaged bulk products, including dried fruits, nuts, grains, granolas, teas, herbs, and spices, as well as peanut and almond butters; private label products comprising grocery staples, household products, bulk foods, and vitamins and dietary supplements, as well as organic eggs, organic flavored coffee, and organic mustard; dry, frozen, and canned groceries; meat and seafood products; dairy products, dairy substitutes, and eggs; prepared foods; bread and baked products; beverages; and beer, wine, and hard cider products. Its stores also provide name-brand supplements, as well as private label dietary supplements; body care products consisting of cosmetics, skin care, hair care, fragrance, and personal care products containing natural and organic ingredients; pet care and food products; household and general merchandise, including cleaning supplies, paper products, and dish and laundry soaps, as well as other common household products, such as diapers; and books and handouts. The company operates its retail stores under the Natural Grocers, Vitamin Cottage, Health Hotline, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage trademark, as well as Vitamin Cottage Natural Grocers and Health Hotline trademarks. The company also offers science-based nutrition education programs to help customers make informed health and nutrition choices. The company was formerly known as Vitamin Cottage Natural Food Markets, Inc. Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in Lakewood, Colorado.

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