Value
7.6/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.5 |
| P/S | 7.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.20
- ▸Attractively valued
NBHC · Why this verdict
Why National Bank Holdings Corporat (NBHC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The bank is growing revenue at 34% year-over-year while trading at a PEG of 0.19 and a forward P/E of 10.4x, suggesting the market has not fully priced in the growth trajectory relative to regional bank peers. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth remains above 20% year-over-year for the next 2 quarters, sustaining the PEG advantage below 0.40. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional bank growth rates are often front-loaded into rate cycles; if rate conditions normalize, the 34% growth rate is unlikely to persist and the valuation premium will compress. | ||
National Bank Holdings has beaten analyst EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, indicating management's ability to outperform consensus expectations and suggesting guidance is set conservatively. Earnings | The company delivers at least 2 more quarterly earnings beats over the next 12 months, maintaining its track record. | →Stable |
| CounterThe one quarterly miss of -26.6% was severe, demonstrating that individual quarter volatility can be significant and the beat streak may not be structurally reliable. | ||
A golden cross pattern with the stock above all major moving averages and a bullish MACD reading signals that recent price momentum has turned structurally positive, which typically supports further price appreciation. Momentum breakdown | The stock sustains a position above its 200-day moving average and momentum score remains above 6.0 over the next 6 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock is only 2.7% below its 52-week high and has already reached the analyst price target, meaning the technical setup may be exhausted rather than early-stage. | ||
The stock's current price has reached or exceeded the consensus analyst price target, with the model showing negative 4.4% implied upside, meaning the near-term fundamental case for adding exposure is limited. Warnings | Analyst price targets are revised upward by at least 10% within the next 12 months, reopening a favorable risk-reward entry. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst target revisions can lag fundamental improvements; if the 34% revenue growth continues, new price targets could emerge quickly. | ||
The bank is growing revenue at 34% year-over-year while trading at a PEG of 0.19 and a forward P/E of 10.4x, suggesting the market has not fully priced in the growth trajectory relative to regional bank peers.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 20% year-over-year for the next 2 quarters, sustaining the PEG advantage below 0.40.
CounterRegional bank growth rates are often front-loaded into rate cycles; if rate conditions normalize, the 34% growth rate is unlikely to persist and the valuation premium will compress.
National Bank Holdings has beaten analyst EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, indicating management's ability to outperform consensus expectations and suggesting guidance is set conservatively.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company delivers at least 2 more quarterly earnings beats over the next 12 months, maintaining its track record.
CounterThe one quarterly miss of -26.6% was severe, demonstrating that individual quarter volatility can be significant and the beat streak may not be structurally reliable.
A golden cross pattern with the stock above all major moving averages and a bullish MACD reading signals that recent price momentum has turned structurally positive, which typically supports further price appreciation.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock sustains a position above its 200-day moving average and momentum score remains above 6.0 over the next 6 months.
CounterThe stock is only 2.7% below its 52-week high and has already reached the analyst price target, meaning the technical setup may be exhausted rather than early-stage.
The stock's current price has reached or exceeded the consensus analyst price target, with the model showing negative 4.4% implied upside, meaning the near-term fundamental case for adding exposure is limited.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets are revised upward by at least 10% within the next 12 months, reopening a favorable risk-reward entry.
CounterAnalyst target revisions can lag fundamental improvements; if the 34% revenue growth continues, new price targets could emerge quickly.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
National Bank Holdings trades at a forward P/E of 10.4x with a PEG of 0.19 and 34% revenue growth, backed by a strong golden-cross technical pattern and 3 out of 4 recent earnings beats, though the stock has already reached analyst price targets leaving limited near-term upside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.4 |
| ROA | 0.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 9.7 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 25%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 34% YoY
Momentum
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 7.8 |
| OBV | 9.4 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.8 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 6.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $40,292 (0.002% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.2 |
| quality rank | 1.9 |
| growth rank | 8.4 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.0 |
| support resistance | 3.1 |
| 52w position | 9.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.8 |
| days to cover | 5.4 |
| volatility | 6.9 |
| implied vol | 3.3 |
| beta | 8.4 |
- ▸High IV: 60%
Catalyst
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 288.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:23d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.02
Upside
-6.6%
Downside
6.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 54, MACD bullish
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 23d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.0B<$5B
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:6.5>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Peer rank at 4.4. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 7.6, and Momentum at 6.5; the weakest are Peer rank at 4.4, Insider at 5.0, and Quality at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.02 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth Low Peg
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Earnings Beat Consistency
Trip ifThe company misses earnings estimates by more than 15% in 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P3Breakout Technical Setup
Trip ifMomentum score drops below 5.0 or the stock falls below its 200-day moving average.
- P4Analyst Target Reached Limited Upside
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target declines more than 10% from current levels.