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National Bank Holdings Corporat (NBHC) Stock Analysis

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $41.22, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0).

National Bank Holdings is a bank holding company operating NBH Bank across Colorado, Kansas City, Texas, Utah, Wyoming, New Mexico, and Idaho, with $9.9B in assets and over 90 banking centers at year-end 2025. It earns net interest income from a diversified commercial and... Read more

$41.22+4.3% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#30 of 142 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield3.09%(5y avg 2.69%)Payout45.90%sustainable
Stop $39.58Target $42.98(resistance)A.R:R -0.1:1
Analyst target$48.25+17.1%4 analysts
$42.98our TP
$41.22price
$48.25mean
$52

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $41.22, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — National Bank Holdings Corporat

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.5
P/E (Fwd)10.0
Mkt Cap$1.9B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn24.7%
ROE7.1%
Rev Growth33.7%
Beta0.80
Dividend3.09%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

IV51%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicColorado, Kansas City, Texas, Utah, Wyoming, New Mexico, Idaho
    10-K Item 1: 'Our core markets are broadly defined as Colorado, the greater Kansas City region, Texas, Utah, Wyoming, New Mexico and Idaho.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-19Item 5.02LOW
    Chris Randall, EVP Head of Commercial, transitioned to new role as EVP SBA Delivery effective February 13, 2026; resigned from bank subsidiary boards. Role change, not departure.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.9
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.7<4.5A.R:R -0.1=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
41 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $40.66Resistance $43.86

Price Targets

$40
$43
A.Upside+4.3%
A.R:R-0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-0.5% upside)
! Momentum score 2.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NBHC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $41.22, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $42.98 (+4.3%), stop $39.58 (−4.1%), A.R:R -0.1:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NBHC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $42.98 (+4.3% upside). Target $42.98 (+4.3%), stop $39.58 (−4.1%), A.R:R -0.1:1. Stop-loss: $39.58.

What are the risks of investing in NBHC?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0); Negative momentum.

Is NBHC overvalued or undervalued?

National Bank Holdings Corporat trades at a P/E of 15.5 (forward 10.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about NBHC?

10 analysts cover NBHC with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $48.

What does National Bank Holdings Corporat do?National Bank Holdings is a bank holding company operating NBH Bank across Colorado, Kansas City, Texas, Utah, Wyoming,...

National Bank Holdings is a bank holding company operating NBH Bank across Colorado, Kansas City, Texas, Utah, Wyoming, New Mexico, and Idaho, with $9.9B in assets and over 90 banking centers at year-end 2025. It earns net interest income from a diversified commercial and consumer loan portfolio and fee income from trust, wealth management, and its 2UniFi digital platform.

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