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NBHCNational Bank Holdings CorporatHold6.3·$42.68+1.64%
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National Bank Holdings Corporat (NBHC) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $42.68, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.7% away).

National Bank Holdings is a bank holding company operating NBH Bank across Colorado, Kansas City, Texas, Utah, Wyoming, New Mexico, and Idaho, with $9.9B in assets and over 90 banking centers at year-end 2025. It earns net interest income from a diversified commercial and... Read more

$42.68-0.6% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#27 of 142 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield3.05%(5y avg 2.70%)Payout45.90%sustainable
Stop $40.82Target $42.41(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$48.25+13.1%4 analysts
$42.41our TP
$42.68price
$48.25mean
$52

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $42.68, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.7% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 49d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 28, 202649d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (2.7% away)
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.7
P/E (Fwd)10.2
Mkt Cap$1.9B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn24.7%
ROE7.1%
Rev Growth33.7%
Beta0.78
Dividend3.05%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

IV80%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicColorado, Kansas City, Texas, Utah, Wyoming, New Mexico, Idaho
    10-K Item 1: 'Our core markets are broadly defined as Colorado, the greater Kansas City region, Texas, Utah, Wyoming, New Mexico and Idaho.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-19Item 5.02LOW
    Chris Randall, EVP Head of Commercial, transitioned to new role as EVP SBA Delivery effective February 13, 2026; resigned from bank subsidiary boards. Role change, not departure.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
2.0
52w Position
9.6
GatesA.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 7.1>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 49d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
64 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $40.28Resistance $43.28

Price Targets

$41
$42
A.Upside-0.6%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.9% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (49d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NBHC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $42.68, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.7% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $42.41 (-0.6%), stop $40.82 (−4.6%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NBHC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $42.41 (-0.6% upside). Target $42.41 (-0.6%), stop $40.82 (−4.6%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Stop-loss: $40.82.

What are the risks of investing in NBHC?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.7% away); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0).

Is NBHC overvalued or undervalued?

National Bank Holdings Corporat trades at a P/E of 15.7 (forward 10.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about NBHC?

10 analysts cover NBHC with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $48.

What does National Bank Holdings Corporat do?National Bank Holdings is a bank holding company operating NBH Bank across Colorado, Kansas City, Texas, Utah, Wyoming,...

National Bank Holdings is a bank holding company operating NBH Bank across Colorado, Kansas City, Texas, Utah, Wyoming, New Mexico, and Idaho, with $9.9B in assets and over 90 banking centers at year-end 2025. It earns net interest income from a diversified commercial and consumer loan portfolio and fee income from trust, wealth management, and its 2UniFi digital platform.

Related stocks: IFS (Intercorp Financial Services In) · SSB (SouthState Bank Corporation) · GABC (German American Bancorp, Inc.) · CUBI (Customers Bancorp, Inc) · BFC (Bank First Corporation)
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