Skip to main content

National Bank Holdings Corporat (NBHC) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $42.90, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.2% away).

National Bank Holdings Corporation is a bank holding company with $9.9B assets at Dec 31, 2025 (pro forma ~$12.4B after Vista acquisition close Jan 7, 2026), operating primarily in Colorado, Kansas City, Texas, Utah, Wyoming, NM and Idaho through NBH Bank and over 90 banking... Read more

$42.90+0.2% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#15 of 142 Banks - Regional
Stop $41.09Target $42.98(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst target$48.25+12.5%4 analysts
$42.98our TP
$42.90price
$48.25mean
$52

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $42.90, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.2% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 58, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 89d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (2.2% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.8
P/E (Fwd)10.2
Mkt Cap$1.9B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn24.7%
ROE7.1%
Rev Growth33.7%
Beta0.77
Dividend3.03%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

IV73%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicColorado, Kansas, Missouri, Texas, Utah, Wyoming, New Mexico, and Idaho
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our business and operations are sensitive to general business and economic conditions in the United States and in our core markets of Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Texas, Utah, Wyoming, New Mexico, and Idaho.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-19Item 5.02LOW
    Chris Randall, EVP Head of Commercial, transitioned to EVP SBA Delivery effective February 13, 2026, as part of post-Vista acquisition organizational changes. Entered transition agreement with new compensation terms. No disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.4>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 89d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
58 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $38.78Resistance $43.86

Price Targets

$41
$43
A.Upside+0.2%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.3% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (89d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NBHC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $42.90, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.2% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 58, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $42.98 (+0.2%), stop $41.09 (−4.4%), A.R:R -0.5:1. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NBHC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $42.98 (+0.2% upside). Target $42.98 (+0.2%), stop $41.09 (−4.4%), A.R:R -0.5:1. Stop-loss: $41.09.

What are the risks of investing in NBHC?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.2% away).

Is NBHC overvalued or undervalued?

National Bank Holdings Corporat trades at a P/E of 15.8 (forward 10.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about NBHC?

11 analysts cover NBHC with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $48.

What does National Bank Holdings Corporat do?National Bank Holdings Corporation is a bank holding company with $9.9B assets at Dec 31, 2025 (pro forma ~$12.4B after...

National Bank Holdings Corporation is a bank holding company with $9.9B assets at Dec 31, 2025 (pro forma ~$12.4B after Vista acquisition close Jan 7, 2026), operating primarily in Colorado, Kansas City, Texas, Utah, Wyoming, NM and Idaho through NBH Bank and over 90 banking centers. It is the third largest banking center network among Colorado-based banks by deposits.

Related stocks: CUBI (Customers Bancorp, Inc) · FIBK (First Interstate BancSystem, In) · VLY (Valley National Bancorp) · PNFP (Pinnacle Financial Partners, In) · CNOB (ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc.)