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NBHCNational Bank Holdings CorporatSell6.2·$42.95-0.88%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

National Bank Holdings trades at a forward P/E of 10.4x with a PEG of 0.19 and 34% revenue growth, backed by a strong golden-cross technical pattern and 3 out of 4 recent earnings beats, though the stock has already reached analyst price targets leaving limited near-term upside.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Revenue Growth Low PegDeteriorating
  • Earnings Beat ConsistencyDeteriorating
  • Breakout Technical SetupDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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National Bank Holdings Corporat (NBHC) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

SellValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $42.95 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2).

National Bank Holdings Corporation is a bank holding company operating over 90 banking centers across Colorado, the greater Kansas City region, Texas, Utah, Wyoming, New Mexico, and Idaho, with $9.9 billion in assets at December 31, 2025. Revenue flows primarily through net... Read more

$42.95-3.6% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#68 of 223 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.95%(5y avg 2.71%)Payout52.52%sustainable
Stop $40.87Target $46.33(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$48.75+13.5%4 analysts
$46.33our TP
$42.95price
$48.75mean
$52

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $42.95 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, earnings proximity 92d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About National Bank Holdings Corporat

About National Bank Holdings Corporat

National Bank Holdings Corporation held $9.9 billion in total assets and $8.3 billion in deposits across over 90 banking centers at December 31, 2025, serving commercial and consumer clients in Colorado, the greater Kansas City region, Texas, Utah, Wyoming, New Mexico, and Idaho. NBH Bank, a Colorado state-chartered FRB of Kansas City member, anchors the franchise alongside BOJHT, with $1.3 billion in trust and wealth management assets under management. The Vista Bank acquisition closed January 7, 2026, adding $2.5 billion in assets.

National Bank Holdings generates net interest income from a loan portfolio spanning commercial and industrial, owner-occupied and non-owner-occupied commercial real estate, SBA-backed business loans, residential mortgage, and consumer categories. Fee income from the company's trust and wealth management arm (operated under Wyoming charter as Bank of Jackson Hole Trust and Bank of Jackson Hole Trust and Wealth Partners) and from mortgage banking gains on sale diversify the revenue base. Deposit funding prioritizes core checking, savings, and money market accounts gathered through branch relationships, supplemented by Cambr — a digital deposit acquisition platform aggregating funds from third-party embedded finance companies and providing an alternative to traditional wholesale funding. The company launched the first phase of the 2UniFi digital banking platform in July 2025, targeting small and medium-sized businesses with SBA working capital loans and automated nightly sweep deposit accounts.

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Geographic concentration in Mountain West and Midcontinent markets ties loan performance and deposit stability to regional economic cycles in Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Texas, Utah, Wyoming, New Mexico, and Idaho. Item 1A flags that the company's operations are sensitive to these core-market economic conditions, and that growing reliance on Cambr program deposits could become a material funding concentration risk if that channel displaces core deposit growth. The FHLB of New York advance program provides a supplemental liquidity backstop, but if competitive pressure on deposit pricing were to accelerate outflows, the company's basic surplus measure may fall below its stated minimum policy level.

See also: Financial Services · Banks - Regional

From National Bank Holdings Corporat's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-27
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Oct 27, 202692d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Positive insider activity
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.2
P/E (Fwd)10.9
Mkt Cap$1.9B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn21.8%
ROE6.5%
Rev Growth22.1%
Beta0.77
Dividend2.95%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

IV41%normal

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-12Item 5.02LOW
    Shareholders approved amended and restated 2023 Omnibus Incentive Plan on May 7, 2026, increasing reserved shares to 2,525,000 and adding restrictions on share recycling. Terms otherwise materially unchanged. No executive departure or succession involved.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.1
Value Rank
2.5
Growth Rank
7.2
GatesMomentum 2.1<4.5A.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKEARNINGS PROXIMITY 92d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
43 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $42.13Resistance $47.28

Price Targets

$41
$46
A.Upside-3.6%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.6% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! momentum at 2.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-27 (92d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NBHC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $42.95 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $40.87. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NBHC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $46.33 (-3.6% upside). Prior stop was $40.87. Stop-loss: $40.87.

What are the risks of investing in NBHC?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative momentum.

Is NBHC overvalued or undervalued?

National Bank Holdings Corporat trades at a P/E of 18.2 (forward 10.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NBHC?

10 analysts cover NBHC with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $49.

What does National Bank Holdings Corporat do?National Bank Holdings Corporation is a bank holding company operating over 90 banking centers across Colorado, the...

National Bank Holdings Corporation is a bank holding company operating over 90 banking centers across Colorado, the greater Kansas City region, Texas, Utah, Wyoming, New Mexico, and Idaho, with $9.9 billion in assets at December 31, 2025. Revenue flows primarily through net interest income on $7.4 billion in loans and $8.3 billion in deposits, supplemented by fee income from $1.3 billion in trust and wealth management assets.

Related stocks: CCNE (CNB Financial Corporation) · BWFG (Bankwell Financial Group, Inc.) · BHB (Bar Harbor Bankshares, Inc.) · CARE (Carter Bankshares, Inc.) · NBBK (NB Bancorp, Inc.)
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