Value
7.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 37.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.36
- ▸Attractively valued
MYGN · Why this verdict
Why Myriad Genetics (MYGN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Myriad Genetics faces a sharp revenue decline and a failed Rule of 40 score, with late-cycle momentum risk and modest insider selling adding to the caution despite a strong earnings-surprise average.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business fails the Rule of 40 test outright, with a combined growth-plus-margin score deeply negative, and overall quality sits below the engine's 4.0 floor. Quality breakdown | The Rule of 40 score should turn positive within the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA strong average earnings surprise shows profitability metrics are beating expectations even as the growth-plus-margin combination remains weak. | ||
Revenue is contracting sharply, down about 21% year over year. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should improve to better than -10% YoY within the next 2 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings growth is strong, and the company has beaten EPS estimates in 2 of its last 4 quarters, suggesting bottom-line execution is outpacing the top-line decline. | ||
The stock shows late-cycle distribution risk, with an overbought RSI reading combined with a flattening 200-day moving-average slope and a hard-blocked death-cross gate. Momentum breakdown | Momentum should either break out cleanly above 5.5 or roll over into a confirmed downtrend within 2 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe setup is classified as a recovery with MACD improving, suggesting the death cross may already be reversing rather than confirming further weakness. | ||
Insiders have been modest net sellers, though the materiality of the transactions is described as low. Insider | Insider transactions should turn net-neutral or net-buying over the next quarter. | →Stable |
| CounterThe sale size is too small relative to market cap to be a meaningful signal on its own. | ||
The business fails the Rule of 40 test outright, with a combined growth-plus-margin score deeply negative, and overall quality sits below the engine's 4.0 floor.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Rule of 40 score should turn positive within the next 4 quarters.
CounterA strong average earnings surprise shows profitability metrics are beating expectations even as the growth-plus-margin combination remains weak.
Revenue is contracting sharply, down about 21% year over year.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should improve to better than -10% YoY within the next 2 quarters.
CounterEarnings growth is strong, and the company has beaten EPS estimates in 2 of its last 4 quarters, suggesting bottom-line execution is outpacing the top-line decline.
The stock shows late-cycle distribution risk, with an overbought RSI reading combined with a flattening 200-day moving-average slope and a hard-blocked death-cross gate.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum should either break out cleanly above 5.5 or roll over into a confirmed downtrend within 2 months.
CounterThe setup is classified as a recovery with MACD improving, suggesting the death cross may already be reversing rather than confirming further weakness.
Insiders have been modest net sellers, though the materiality of the transactions is described as low.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider transactions should turn net-neutral or net-buying over the next quarter.
CounterThe sale size is too small relative to market cap to be a meaningful signal on its own.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 9.6 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -8% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Rule of 40: -29 (fail)
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -21%
Momentum
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 2.3 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 5.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.4 |
| erm sentiment | 4.6 |
Insider
3.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 2.5 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $39,206 (0.007% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions reducing
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.7 |
| quality rank | 0.5 |
| growth rank | 0.3 |
Technical
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.6 |
| support resistance | 5.9 |
| 52w position | 3.3 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.4 |
| days to cover | 5.7 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 4.5 |
| debt equity | 8.7 |
- ▸High IV: 120%
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 12 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (4)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:2.8<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.4=NEGATIVE
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (2)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:12d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.43
Upside
-4.7%
Downside
10.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.64>1.3, MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 2.8<4.5 outcome against Value at 7.3 and asymmetric R:R of -0.43.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.3, Catalyst at 6.4, and Technical at 5.7; the weakest are Momentum at 2.8, Quality at 3.2, and Insider at 3.5. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.43 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Sharp Revenue Decline
Trip ifRevenue growth exceeds -10% YoY within the next 2 quarters.
- P2Rule Of Forty Failure
Trip ifRule of 40 score exceeds 0 within the next 4 quarters.
- P3Late Cycle Momentum Risk
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 3.5, confirming a downtrend, within 2 months.
- P4Modest Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling as a percent of market cap exceeds 0.1% within the next 90 days.