Value
5.8/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.9 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
MYGN · Why this verdict
Why Myriad Genetics (MYGN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Myriad Genetics faces a sharp revenue decline and a failed Rule of 40 score, with late-cycle momentum risk and modest insider selling adding to the caution despite a strong earnings-surprise average.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business fails the Rule of 40 test outright, with a combined growth-plus-margin score deeply negative, and overall quality sits below the engine's 4.0 floor. Quality breakdown | The Rule of 40 score should turn positive within the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA strong average earnings surprise shows profitability metrics are beating expectations even as the growth-plus-margin combination remains weak. | ||
Revenue is contracting sharply, down about 21% year over year. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should improve to better than -10% YoY within the next 2 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings growth is strong, and the company has beaten EPS estimates in 2 of its last 4 quarters, suggesting bottom-line execution is outpacing the top-line decline. | ||
The stock shows late-cycle distribution risk, with an overbought RSI reading combined with a flattening 200-day moving-average slope and a hard-blocked death-cross gate. Momentum breakdown | Momentum should either break out cleanly above 5.5 or roll over into a confirmed downtrend within 2 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe setup is classified as a recovery with MACD improving, suggesting the death cross may already be reversing rather than confirming further weakness. | ||
Insiders have been modest net sellers, though the materiality of the transactions is described as low. Insider | Insider transactions should turn net-neutral or net-buying over the next quarter. | →Stable |
| CounterThe sale size is too small relative to market cap to be a meaningful signal on its own. | ||
The business fails the Rule of 40 test outright, with a combined growth-plus-margin score deeply negative, and overall quality sits below the engine's 4.0 floor.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Rule of 40 score should turn positive within the next 4 quarters.
CounterA strong average earnings surprise shows profitability metrics are beating expectations even as the growth-plus-margin combination remains weak.
Revenue is contracting sharply, down about 21% year over year.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should improve to better than -10% YoY within the next 2 quarters.
CounterEarnings growth is strong, and the company has beaten EPS estimates in 2 of its last 4 quarters, suggesting bottom-line execution is outpacing the top-line decline.
The stock shows late-cycle distribution risk, with an overbought RSI reading combined with a flattening 200-day moving-average slope and a hard-blocked death-cross gate.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum should either break out cleanly above 5.5 or roll over into a confirmed downtrend within 2 months.
CounterThe setup is classified as a recovery with MACD improving, suggesting the death cross may already be reversing rather than confirming further weakness.
Insiders have been modest net sellers, though the materiality of the transactions is described as low.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider transactions should turn net-neutral or net-buying over the next quarter.
CounterThe sale size is too small relative to market cap to be a meaningful signal on its own.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 9.8 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.6 |
| FCF quality | 4.0 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 2%, FCF yield 3.2%)
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Rule of 40: -8 (fail)
Growth
0.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -10%
Momentum
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 0.5 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 80)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat/negative + RSI 80 (late-cycle distribution risk)
Sentiment
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 1.5 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.40 (n=1)
- ▸Below analyst target
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.7 |
| quality rank | 1.2 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
1.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.2 |
| 52w position | 4.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.4 |
| days to cover | 6.6 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 9.6 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 4.5 |
| debt equity | 6.8 |
- ▸High IV: 111%
- ▸Above max pain $1
Catalyst
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 1.5 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Estimates down -5.1% (30d)
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 8 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:6.4>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-2.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (3)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.4>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:8d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
-2.53
Upside
-37.9%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 80
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.64>1.3, MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -2.5=NEGATIVE outcome against Insider at 7.3 and asymmetric R:R of -2.53.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.3, Momentum at 6.4, and Value at 5.8; the weakest are Growth at 0.0, Technical at 1.6, and Peer rank at 3.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 3 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.53 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Sharp Revenue Decline
Trip ifRevenue growth exceeds -10% YoY within the next 2 quarters.
- P2Rule Of Forty Failure
Trip ifRule of 40 score exceeds 0 within the next 4 quarters.
- P3Late Cycle Momentum Risk
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 3.5, confirming a downtrend, within 2 months.
- P4Modest Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling as a percent of market cap exceeds 0.1% within the next 90 days.