Should you buy Myriad Genetics (MYGN)?
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Engine methodology range
Range computation requires sufficient peer-comparable data; available for tickers with peer_count ≥3.
What the engine is tracking
- Rule Of Forty Failure→Stable
- Sharp Revenue Decline→Stable
- Late Cycle Momentum Risk↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
→ Full pillar scorecard with all 4 pillars + per-dimension breakdown
When this thesis breaks
Falsifiable conditions per pillar — any one trip warrants review independent of price action. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Sharp Revenue Decline
Trip ifRevenue growth exceeds -10% YoY within the next 2 quarters.
- P2Rule Of Forty Failure
Trip ifRule of 40 score exceeds 0 within the next 4 quarters.
- P3Late Cycle Momentum Risk
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 3.5, confirming a downtrend, within 2 months.
- P4Modest Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling as a percent of market cap exceeds 0.1% within the next 90 days.
How the engine reached this verdict
TrendMatrix's engine output for Myriad Genetics, Inc. (MYGN) is SELL_IF_HOLDING with medium conviction, score 4.1/10 at $6.29. The reward-to-risk gate failed, producing a SELL engine output.
The dominant failed gate is reward-to-risk (NEGATIVE). SELL flips back toward HOLD if reward-to-risk recovers above its threshold AND a co-failing gate also clears. The strongest-cleared gate today is MOMENTUM:6.3>=5.5.
On the bear side: V8: Target reached (-37.9% upside); Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 4.0%), Material insider selling (5 sells, 0.12% of cap). Active engine warnings: V8: Target reached (-37.9% upside), Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0), Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 4.0%), Material insider selling (5 sells, 0.12% of cap).
The engine's exit framework anchors to a tactical sell band near $6.29, with structural invalidation at $5.85. The asymmetric R:R against a reversal hypothesis is -2.53 — the upside scenario exists, but it requires multiple structural gates to flip; the downside scenario requires only one more disappointment. The engine's sizing output: AVOID at this asymmetry level (no fresh-capital deployment).
For the full 10-dimension breakdown + V9 gate detail: Why TrendMatrix rates MYGN — 10-dimension breakdown →
Bear case
- ▸V8: Target reached (-37.9% upside)
- ▸Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0)
- ▸Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 4.0%), Material insider selling (5 sells, 0.12% of cap)