Value
4.8/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 4.5 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
MSGS · Why this verdict
Why Madison Square Garden Sports (MSGS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Madison Square Garden Sports scores below the minimum quality threshold at 1.8/10, with a mixed earnings record of 2 beats and 2 misses, and the stock has reached or exceeded analyst price targets, leaving no favorable risk-reward for new positions.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business scores only 1.8/10 on quality, with near-zero operating margin, no competitive moat, and negligible return on assets, making it vulnerable to any revenue or cost pressure. Quality breakdown | Operating margin improves above 5% within 12 months as the business benefits from any revenue growth. | ↑Improving |
| CounterWith gross margin scoring only 1.9/10 and the Piotroski F-Score at 4/9, structural cost disadvantages may prevent any meaningful margin improvement regardless of revenue trends. | ||
The company delivered 2 beats and 2 misses over the past 4 quarters, with an average earnings surprise of -32.6%, including a catastrophic miss of -248.9% in the most recent quarter of May 2026. Earnings | The company returns to beating earnings estimates in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters without a miss exceeding -20%. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe most recent quarter's miss of $-0.78 against an estimate of $0.52, a swing of over $1.30 per share, indicates the business model generates highly unpredictable results that analysts consistently misjudge. | ||
The stock at $380.00 has already passed analyst price targets, with estimated upside of only 2.4% to the technical resistance at $389.06, while downside to the stop-loss at $358.30 is 5.7%, creating an unfavorable risk-reward. Targets | New analyst coverage raises price targets above $430 within 12 months, creating at least 13% implied upside. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is dampened by light coverage of only 6 analysts, and the current valuation is already stretched relative to quality metrics, making a target upgrade without fundamental improvement unlikely. | ||
Despite poor quality fundamentals, the stock trades above its 200-day moving average with momentum scoring 4.8/10, suggesting some technical buying support exists at current levels. Momentum breakdown | The stock maintains its position above the 200-day moving average for at least 6 of the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterVolume is showing distribution rather than accumulation with a falling on-balance volume indicator, meaning the price is rising on diminishing buying interest, which historically precedes reversals. | ||
The business scores only 1.8/10 on quality, with near-zero operating margin, no competitive moat, and negligible return on assets, making it vulnerable to any revenue or cost pressure.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Operating margin improves above 5% within 12 months as the business benefits from any revenue growth.
CounterWith gross margin scoring only 1.9/10 and the Piotroski F-Score at 4/9, structural cost disadvantages may prevent any meaningful margin improvement regardless of revenue trends.
The company delivered 2 beats and 2 misses over the past 4 quarters, with an average earnings surprise of -32.6%, including a catastrophic miss of -248.9% in the most recent quarter of May 2026.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- The company returns to beating earnings estimates in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters without a miss exceeding -20%.
CounterThe most recent quarter's miss of $-0.78 against an estimate of $0.52, a swing of over $1.30 per share, indicates the business model generates highly unpredictable results that analysts consistently misjudge.
The stock at $380.00 has already passed analyst price targets, with estimated upside of only 2.4% to the technical resistance at $389.06, while downside to the stop-loss at $358.30 is 5.7%, creating an unfavorable risk-reward.
↑ImprovingTargets
- Expectation
- New analyst coverage raises price targets above $430 within 12 months, creating at least 13% implied upside.
CounterAnalyst coverage is dampened by light coverage of only 6 analysts, and the current valuation is already stretched relative to quality metrics, making a target upgrade without fundamental improvement unlikely.
Despite poor quality fundamentals, the stock trades above its 200-day moving average with momentum scoring 4.8/10, suggesting some technical buying support exists at current levels.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock maintains its position above the 200-day moving average for at least 6 of the next 12 months.
CounterVolume is showing distribution rather than accumulation with a falling on-balance volume indicator, meaning the price is rising on diminishing buying interest, which historically precedes reversals.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 0.9 |
| Gross margin | 1.5 |
| Op margin | 4.7 |
| Net margin | 0.3 |
| Current ratio | 2.0 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 771% FCF/NI
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 37% YoY
Momentum
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 9.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.3 |
| Analyst rating | 6.6 |
| Price target | 7.5 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.47 (n=5)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.6 |
| quality rank | 4.1 |
| growth rank | 9.7 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.7 |
| support resistance | 5.6 |
| 52w position | 8.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.7 |
| days to cover | 3.3 |
| volatility | 4.7 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 4.2 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 9.5 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.19
Catalyst
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:6.9>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST_CLUSTER(3)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.4<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.43
Upside
+2.7%
Downside
6.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's 0.4<1.5@spot outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 0.43.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Insider at 7.3, and Sentiment at 7.1; the weakest are Catalyst at 3.5, Quality at 4.0, and Peer rank at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.43 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Below Minimum Quality Floor
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 0% (negative) for 2 consecutive reported quarters.
- P2Mixed Earnings Track Record
Trip ifActual EPS misses estimate by more than 50% in any single quarter over the next 12 months.
- P3Price Target Reached Negative Upside
Trip ifStock price drops below $358.30, the current defined stop-loss level.
- P4Price Momentum Above Trend
Trip ifStock price falls below its 200-day moving average and volume drops below 30-day average for more than 10 consecutive sessions.