Value
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.0 |
| P/S | 7.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.3 |
| PEG | 6.6 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 20.3x
- ▸PEG: 1.11
MOD · Why this verdict
Why Modine Manufacturing (MOD) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has delivered 48% year-over-year earnings growth, ranking as a top grower within its peer group — a rate that, if sustained, should drive meaningful valuation re-rating over the medium term. Growth breakdown | Earnings growth stays above 30% year-over-year for at least 2 of the next 3 reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe February 2026 quarter produced a -192% earnings surprise — a severe miss that raises questions about whether recent growth reflects durable demand or lumpy items that can disappear without warning. | ||
At current prices the stock sits just 3.8% below its near-term target, leaving a narrow absolute margin of capture even though the risk/reward geometry is roughly 1.83-to-1 in your favor — new entries require accepting a tight upside band. Price targets | A pullback toward the entry target near $263 would improve the setup materially, or an earnings beat drives analysts to raise consensus targets by more than 10%. | →Stable |
| CounterA static price target does not cap total return if earnings beats force upward revisions; the next quarterly print in late July could reset expectations materially higher. | ||
Management has beaten consensus estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, supported by positive news sentiment, suggesting a pattern of disciplined guidance that gives analysts and investors reasonable visibility. Bull case | EPS beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 reported quarters with no negative surprise exceeding -15%. | →Stable |
| CounterThe single miss — in February 2026 at -192% below estimates — was extreme enough to undercut confidence in the beat streak; one quarter at that magnitude can reset the forecasting framework entirely. | ||
Free cash flow is running deeply negative relative to reported net income — down approximately 84% — a significant quality concern indicating that reported earnings are not translating into distributable cash and that growth may be consuming capital faster than it generates returns. Quality breakdown | The FCF-to-net-income ratio turns positive and reaches at least 50% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterDeeply negative FCF can reflect heavy capital deployment during an expansion phase; if investment spending normalizes, cash generation may improve sharply without any deterioration in the underlying business. | ||
Options traders have positioned heavily on the downside, with a put/call ratio of 1.57 and implied volatility at 121% — conditions that signal elevated perceived risk and willingness to pay up for protection at current prices. Risk breakdown | If the fundamental thesis holds, the put/call ratio falls below 1.0 and implied volatility compresses below 80% over the next two quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterAn elevated put/call ratio can reflect hedging by existing long holders rather than outright directional bearishness; high implied volatility may simply mirror the stock's inherent price swings rather than new negative information. | ||
The company has delivered 48% year-over-year earnings growth, ranking as a top grower within its peer group — a rate that, if sustained, should drive meaningful valuation re-rating over the medium term.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth stays above 30% year-over-year for at least 2 of the next 3 reported quarters.
CounterThe February 2026 quarter produced a -192% earnings surprise — a severe miss that raises questions about whether recent growth reflects durable demand or lumpy items that can disappear without warning.
At current prices the stock sits just 3.8% below its near-term target, leaving a narrow absolute margin of capture even though the risk/reward geometry is roughly 1.83-to-1 in your favor — new entries require accepting a tight upside band.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- A pullback toward the entry target near $263 would improve the setup materially, or an earnings beat drives analysts to raise consensus targets by more than 10%.
CounterA static price target does not cap total return if earnings beats force upward revisions; the next quarterly print in late July could reset expectations materially higher.
Management has beaten consensus estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, supported by positive news sentiment, suggesting a pattern of disciplined guidance that gives analysts and investors reasonable visibility.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- EPS beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 reported quarters with no negative surprise exceeding -15%.
CounterThe single miss — in February 2026 at -192% below estimates — was extreme enough to undercut confidence in the beat streak; one quarter at that magnitude can reset the forecasting framework entirely.
Free cash flow is running deeply negative relative to reported net income — down approximately 84% — a significant quality concern indicating that reported earnings are not translating into distributable cash and that growth may be consuming capital faster than it generates returns.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The FCF-to-net-income ratio turns positive and reaches at least 50% over the next 12 months.
CounterDeeply negative FCF can reflect heavy capital deployment during an expansion phase; if investment spending normalizes, cash generation may improve sharply without any deterioration in the underlying business.
Options traders have positioned heavily on the downside, with a put/call ratio of 1.57 and implied volatility at 121% — conditions that signal elevated perceived risk and willingness to pay up for protection at current prices.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- If the fundamental thesis holds, the put/call ratio falls below 1.0 and implied volatility compresses below 80% over the next two quarters.
CounterAn elevated put/call ratio can reflect hedging by existing long holders rather than outright directional bearishness; high implied volatility may simply mirror the stock's inherent price swings rather than new negative information.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Modine Manufacturing is a standout earnings grower with broad momentum support, but weak free cash flow conversion, a single large earnings miss, and minimal near-term price upside temper conviction at current levels.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.9 |
| ROA | 6.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.6 |
| Op margin | 4.7 |
| Net margin | 1.9 |
| Current ratio | 6.8 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.6 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -84% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 48% YoY
Momentum
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 3.5 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 35) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.7 |
| Price target | 9.5 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 48%
Insider
3.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $27,050,899 (0.222% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.6 |
| quality rank | 5.7 |
| growth rank | 8.9 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.3 |
| 52w position | 4.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.5 |
| days to cover | 8.6 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 3.5 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 4.4 |
| debt equity | 8.1 |
- ▸High IV: 97%
- ▸Above max pain $145
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.7 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:1.9>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:25d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.3<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.89
Upside
+28.4%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 25d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.67>1.3
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: ASYMMETRY:1.9>=1.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Momentum at 3.3. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Technical at 7.9, and Sentiment at 7.4; the weakest are Momentum at 3.3, Insider at 3.4, and Peer rank at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.89 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Industry Leading Earnings Growth
Trip ifEarnings growth falls below 15% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Earnings Beat Streak Credibility
Trip ifEPS surprise registers below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Weak Free Cash Flow Conversion
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income ratio rises above 50% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Elevated Options Market Hedging
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 0.8 for 4 consecutive weeks.
- P5Thin Near Term Price Upside
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target is revised upward by more than 15%, creating new upside above the prior take-profit level of $296.55.