Value
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.0 |
| P/S | 7.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.9 |
| PEG | 6.6 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 21.8x
- ▸PEG: 1.11
MOD · Why this verdict
Why Modine Manufacturing (MOD) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Modine Manufacturing is a standout earnings grower with broad momentum support, but weak free cash flow conversion, a single large earnings miss, and minimal near-term price upside temper conviction at current levels.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has delivered 48% year-over-year earnings growth, ranking as a top grower within its peer group — a rate that, if sustained, should drive meaningful valuation re-rating over the medium term. Growth breakdown | Earnings growth stays above 30% year-over-year for at least 2 of the next 3 reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe February 2026 quarter produced a -192% earnings surprise — a severe miss that raises questions about whether recent growth reflects durable demand or lumpy items that can disappear without warning. | ||
At current prices the stock sits just 3.8% below its near-term target, leaving a narrow absolute margin of capture even though the risk/reward geometry is roughly 1.83-to-1 in your favor — new entries require accepting a tight upside band. Price targets | A pullback toward the entry target near $263 would improve the setup materially, or an earnings beat drives analysts to raise consensus targets by more than 10%. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA static price target does not cap total return if earnings beats force upward revisions; the next quarterly print in late July could reset expectations materially higher. | ||
Management has beaten consensus estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, supported by positive news sentiment, suggesting a pattern of disciplined guidance that gives analysts and investors reasonable visibility. Bull case | EPS beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 reported quarters with no negative surprise exceeding -15%. | →Stable |
| CounterThe single miss — in February 2026 at -192% below estimates — was extreme enough to undercut confidence in the beat streak; one quarter at that magnitude can reset the forecasting framework entirely. | ||
Free cash flow is running deeply negative relative to reported net income — down approximately 84% — a significant quality concern indicating that reported earnings are not translating into distributable cash and that growth may be consuming capital faster than it generates returns. Quality breakdown | The FCF-to-net-income ratio turns positive and reaches at least 50% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterDeeply negative FCF can reflect heavy capital deployment during an expansion phase; if investment spending normalizes, cash generation may improve sharply without any deterioration in the underlying business. | ||
Options traders have positioned heavily on the downside, with a put/call ratio of 1.57 and implied volatility at 121% — conditions that signal elevated perceived risk and willingness to pay up for protection at current prices. Risk breakdown | If the fundamental thesis holds, the put/call ratio falls below 1.0 and implied volatility compresses below 80% over the next two quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAn elevated put/call ratio can reflect hedging by existing long holders rather than outright directional bearishness; high implied volatility may simply mirror the stock's inherent price swings rather than new negative information. | ||
The company has delivered 48% year-over-year earnings growth, ranking as a top grower within its peer group — a rate that, if sustained, should drive meaningful valuation re-rating over the medium term.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth stays above 30% year-over-year for at least 2 of the next 3 reported quarters.
CounterThe February 2026 quarter produced a -192% earnings surprise — a severe miss that raises questions about whether recent growth reflects durable demand or lumpy items that can disappear without warning.
At current prices the stock sits just 3.8% below its near-term target, leaving a narrow absolute margin of capture even though the risk/reward geometry is roughly 1.83-to-1 in your favor — new entries require accepting a tight upside band.
↓DeterioratingPrice targets
- Expectation
- A pullback toward the entry target near $263 would improve the setup materially, or an earnings beat drives analysts to raise consensus targets by more than 10%.
CounterA static price target does not cap total return if earnings beats force upward revisions; the next quarterly print in late July could reset expectations materially higher.
Management has beaten consensus estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, supported by positive news sentiment, suggesting a pattern of disciplined guidance that gives analysts and investors reasonable visibility.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- EPS beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 reported quarters with no negative surprise exceeding -15%.
CounterThe single miss — in February 2026 at -192% below estimates — was extreme enough to undercut confidence in the beat streak; one quarter at that magnitude can reset the forecasting framework entirely.
Free cash flow is running deeply negative relative to reported net income — down approximately 84% — a significant quality concern indicating that reported earnings are not translating into distributable cash and that growth may be consuming capital faster than it generates returns.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The FCF-to-net-income ratio turns positive and reaches at least 50% over the next 12 months.
CounterDeeply negative FCF can reflect heavy capital deployment during an expansion phase; if investment spending normalizes, cash generation may improve sharply without any deterioration in the underlying business.
Options traders have positioned heavily on the downside, with a put/call ratio of 1.57 and implied volatility at 121% — conditions that signal elevated perceived risk and willingness to pay up for protection at current prices.
↑ImprovingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- If the fundamental thesis holds, the put/call ratio falls below 1.0 and implied volatility compresses below 80% over the next two quarters.
CounterAn elevated put/call ratio can reflect hedging by existing long holders rather than outright directional bearishness; high implied volatility may simply mirror the stock's inherent price swings rather than new negative information.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.9 |
| ROA | 6.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.6 |
| Op margin | 4.7 |
| Net margin | 1.9 |
| Current ratio | 6.8 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.6 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -84% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 48% YoY
Momentum
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.0 |
| Volume | 0.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.7 |
| Price target | 9.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 37%
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $27,050,899 (0.206% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.5 |
| quality rank | 5.7 |
| growth rank | 8.9 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.2 |
| support resistance | 5.3 |
| 52w position | 5.4 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.5 |
| days to cover | 9.6 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 4.4 |
| debt equity | 8.1 |
- ▸High IV: 99%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.7 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 7 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:1.2<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.25
Upside
+18.8%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.67>1.3
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Quality at 4.3. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Sentiment at 7.4, and Catalyst at 7.2; the weakest are Quality at 4.3, Value at 5.0, and Technical at 5.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.25 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Industry Leading Earnings Growth
Trip ifEarnings growth falls below 15% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Earnings Beat Streak Credibility
Trip ifEPS surprise registers below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Weak Free Cash Flow Conversion
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income ratio rises above 50% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Elevated Options Market Hedging
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 0.8 for 4 consecutive weeks.
- P5Thin Near Term Price Upside
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target is revised upward by more than 15%, creating new upside above the prior take-profit level of $296.55.