Value
7.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.5 |
| P/S | 9.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 6.3 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.6x
- ▸PEG: 1.17
- ▸Attractively valued
LZB · Why this verdict
Why La-Z-Boy (LZB) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
La-Z-Boy sits at the analyst price target with earnings reporting today, leaving no measurable upside and a binary event risk that makes initiating or adding to a position unattractive despite a constructive technical setup and reasonable valuation.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
With the stock at $37.78 against an analyst consensus target of $37.82, there is effectively no remaining upside to the published price target, and the risk/reward geometry has collapsed to near zero on the reward side. Bear case | Analyst price targets are revised upward to at least $42 within 12 months, restoring a meaningful gap to the current price. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA technical breakout pattern — golden cross, above all moving averages — can carry price through an exhausted analyst target if the fundamental update (earnings today) delivers a positive surprise. | ||
Earnings are reporting with zero days until the event, creating a binary outcome where positioning before the print carries the full asymmetry of a surprise in either direction with no ability to size the entry rationally. Engine gate (failed) | Post-earnings, the stock establishes a new base either above $40 on a beat or below $35 on a miss, allowing a fresh entry decision with known post-print data. | →Stable |
| CounterThe two most recent quarters were beats (the newest at a 2.8% beat, the one prior at a 31.5% beat), and an options put/call ratio of 3.25 may overstate downside risk if hedgers are simply protecting existing long positions. | ||
Free cash flow runs at 233% of net income, and the Piotroski financial health score stands at 8 out of 9, indicating a balance sheet capable of weathering a cyclical furniture demand downturn. Quality breakdown | FCF conversion stays above 150% of net income and the Piotroski score remains at or above 7 over the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe business carries no assessed competitive moat, meaning that strong cash conversion in a cyclical sector reflects current demand conditions rather than a structural pricing or cost advantage that persists through downturns. | ||
A put/call ratio of 3.25 is sharply skewed toward downside protection, suggesting the options market is pricing in a meaningful probability of a negative earnings outcome or a post-print correction. Key risks | The put/call ratio compresses below 1.5 in the week following earnings, signaling that the hedging overhang has cleared. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterElevated put/call ratios around earnings can reflect institutional hedging of existing long positions rather than directional bets, meaning the signal is more ambiguous than it appears on the surface. | ||
With the stock at $37.78 against an analyst consensus target of $37.82, there is effectively no remaining upside to the published price target, and the risk/reward geometry has collapsed to near zero on the reward side.
Tripped↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets are revised upward to at least $42 within 12 months, restoring a meaningful gap to the current price.
CounterA technical breakout pattern — golden cross, above all moving averages — can carry price through an exhausted analyst target if the fundamental update (earnings today) delivers a positive surprise.
Earnings are reporting with zero days until the event, creating a binary outcome where positioning before the print carries the full asymmetry of a surprise in either direction with no ability to size the entry rationally.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Post-earnings, the stock establishes a new base either above $40 on a beat or below $35 on a miss, allowing a fresh entry decision with known post-print data.
CounterThe two most recent quarters were beats (the newest at a 2.8% beat, the one prior at a 31.5% beat), and an options put/call ratio of 3.25 may overstate downside risk if hedgers are simply protecting existing long positions.
Free cash flow runs at 233% of net income, and the Piotroski financial health score stands at 8 out of 9, indicating a balance sheet capable of weathering a cyclical furniture demand downturn.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF conversion stays above 150% of net income and the Piotroski score remains at or above 7 over the next four quarters.
CounterThe business carries no assessed competitive moat, meaning that strong cash conversion in a cyclical sector reflects current demand conditions rather than a structural pricing or cost advantage that persists through downturns.
A put/call ratio of 3.25 is sharply skewed toward downside protection, suggesting the options market is pricing in a meaningful probability of a negative earnings outcome or a post-print correction.
↓DeterioratingKey risks
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio compresses below 1.5 in the week following earnings, signaling that the hedging overhang has cleared.
CounterElevated put/call ratios around earnings can reflect institutional hedging of existing long positions rather than directional bets, meaning the signal is more ambiguous than it appears on the surface.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.7 |
| ROA | 3.1 |
| Gross margin | 5.0 |
| Op margin | 1.1 |
| Net margin | 1.9 |
| Current ratio | 6.0 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.6 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 224% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
1.7/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.7 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -3%
Momentum
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 6.3 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 3.5 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 14, below 200MA)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.8%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.9 |
| Price target | 8.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (2.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 26%
Insider
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 6.3 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $2,132,941 (0.164% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.1 |
| quality rank | 3.3 |
| growth rank | 2.1 |
Technical
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.1 |
| support resistance | 9.3 |
| 52w position | 4.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.7 |
| days to cover | 6.4 |
| volatility | 0.9 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 6.8 |
| beta | 5.9 |
| debt equity | 7.8 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.00
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 3 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 3.0% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:80d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.0<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.8<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- INSIDER:0.16%=MODERATE
Reward-to-Risk
0.76
Upside
+7.0%
Downside
9.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.3B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.3B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.9 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.9) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.0<4.5, ASYMMETRY:0.8<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.76 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.9, Technical at 7.3, and Catalyst at 6.9; the weakest are Growth at 1.7, Momentum at 3.0, and Peer rank at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.76 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Price At Analyst TargetTripped
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $35, widening the negative gap to current price.
- P2Earnings Binary Event Today
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -10% on the report due today (earnings day).
- P3Solid Cash Conversion Piotroski
Trip ifFCF as a percentage of net income drops below 100% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Elevated Put Call Downside Skew
Trip ifPut/call ratio stays above 2.5 for more than 3 weeks post-earnings, suggesting persistent downside hedging.