Value
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.0 |
| P/S | 7.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.6 |
| PEG | 7.2 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.97
- ▸Attractively valued
LOPE · Why this verdict
Why Grand Canyon Education (LOPE) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
9.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 9.9 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 6.7 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 9.8 |
| Current ratio | 9.2 |
| FCF quality | 7.1 |
| Moat | 8.4 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 30%
- ▸Strong margins: 20%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
4.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.2 |
| EPS growth | 4.2 |
Momentum
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 1.2 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 1.7 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.2 |
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 9.4 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.43 (n=3)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 45%
Insider
5.1/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.2 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.1 |
| quality rank | 8.6 |
| growth rank | 4.7 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.8 |
| support resistance | 9.9 |
| 52w position | 2.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.2 |
| days to cover | 4.9 |
| volatility | 4.2 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 3.5 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 9.6 |
| debt equity | 9.4 |
| news risk | 3.5 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 7.00
- ▸Above max pain $95
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.9 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_E_WIDE_MOAT|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:3.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.50
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:51d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.5<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
3.56
Upside
+23.5%
Downside
6.6%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupFALLING_KNIFE — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 33, MACD bearish
EdgeTEMP_HEADWIND — High quality (9.0) with weak momentum (3.5)
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $3.9B<$5B
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.5<4.5 outcome against Quality at 9.0 and asymmetric R:R of 3.56.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 9.0, Sentiment at 7.7, and Technical at 7.5; the weakest are Momentum at 3.5, Peer rank at 3.9, and Growth at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.56 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.