Value
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.3 |
| P/S | 8.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.9 |
| PEG | 7.6 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.90
- ▸Attractively valued
LOPE · Why this verdict
Why Grand Canyon Education (LOPE) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
This education franchise carries wide economic moat characteristics with a 30% return on equity, a perfect Piotroski score, and roughly 24.4% upside to the price target at a 4.1-to-1 risk/reward ratio — but a confirmed death-cross downtrend and a put/call ratio of 7.12 introduce near-term price pressure that calls for a staged entry rather than immediate full deployment.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A wide economic moat underpins a 30% return on equity, operating and net margins above 20%, and a perfect Piotroski financial health score of 9 out of 9 — together defining a business with durable competitive advantages and exceptional financial health. Quality breakdown | Return on equity remains above 25% and the Piotroski score stays at 8 or above for 4 consecutive quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterQuality metrics are high today but growth is moderate, and without additional evidence of competitive advantage deepening, sustaining current return levels may prove challenging if the operating environment becomes more competitive. | ||
At a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 12.8 times and a PEG of 0.94, the stock is attractively priced for its quality tier, and the price target of $177.93 represents roughly 24.4% upside — a material move that comes with a risk/reward ratio of approximately 4.1-to-1 in the investor's favor. Price targets | Price reaches $177 within 12 months while forward earnings estimates hold or rise. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is thin at 3 firms, which reduces the statistical reliability of the consensus price target, and a put/call ratio of 7.12 signals that options market participants are positioned heavily for further near-term weakness. | ||
The stock is trading in a death-cross pattern — below all moving averages with the long-term average declining at roughly 2.4% over the past 30 days — a confirmed downtrend that represents a hard technical block on establishing a full position at current levels. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims and holds above the 200-day moving average for at least 10 consecutive trading days, removing the death-cross technical constraint. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRising on-balance volume despite the price downtrend signals that institutional accumulation may already be underway beneath the surface, which can lead to a faster-than-expected technical reversal once selling pressure abates. | ||
Three of the four most recent quarters beat consensus — an older beat, then an in-line quarter, followed by two consecutive beats in the two most recent periods — demonstrating a pattern of consistent delivery that anchors confidence in the forward earnings trajectory. Catalyst track record | EPS beats analyst consensus in each of the next 2 reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterWith only 3 analysts covering the stock, estimate quality is lower than for more widely followed names; a single analyst revision can shift the consensus meaningfully, making the beat/miss record a noisier signal than it appears. | ||
A put/call ratio of 7.12 is exceptionally elevated and indicates that options market participants are positioned heavily on the downside, introducing near-term price risk if those positions reflect hedging pressure or anticipated negative catalysts. Risk breakdown | Put/call ratio compresses below 2.0 as the technical setup improves and near-term downside expectations moderate. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAn extreme put/call ratio can reflect protective hedges by existing long-holders rather than directional bearish bets, meaning the options positioning may amplify any upside move rather than predict a decline. | ||
A wide economic moat underpins a 30% return on equity, operating and net margins above 20%, and a perfect Piotroski financial health score of 9 out of 9 — together defining a business with durable competitive advantages and exceptional financial health.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity remains above 25% and the Piotroski score stays at 8 or above for 4 consecutive quarters.
CounterQuality metrics are high today but growth is moderate, and without additional evidence of competitive advantage deepening, sustaining current return levels may prove challenging if the operating environment becomes more competitive.
At a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 12.8 times and a PEG of 0.94, the stock is attractively priced for its quality tier, and the price target of $177.93 represents roughly 24.4% upside — a material move that comes with a risk/reward ratio of approximately 4.1-to-1 in the investor's favor.
↑ImprovingPrice targets
- Expectation
- Price reaches $177 within 12 months while forward earnings estimates hold or rise.
CounterAnalyst coverage is thin at 3 firms, which reduces the statistical reliability of the consensus price target, and a put/call ratio of 7.12 signals that options market participants are positioned heavily for further near-term weakness.
The stock is trading in a death-cross pattern — below all moving averages with the long-term average declining at roughly 2.4% over the past 30 days — a confirmed downtrend that represents a hard technical block on establishing a full position at current levels.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims and holds above the 200-day moving average for at least 10 consecutive trading days, removing the death-cross technical constraint.
CounterRising on-balance volume despite the price downtrend signals that institutional accumulation may already be underway beneath the surface, which can lead to a faster-than-expected technical reversal once selling pressure abates.
Three of the four most recent quarters beat consensus — an older beat, then an in-line quarter, followed by two consecutive beats in the two most recent periods — demonstrating a pattern of consistent delivery that anchors confidence in the forward earnings trajectory.
→StableCatalyst track record
- Expectation
- EPS beats analyst consensus in each of the next 2 reported quarters.
CounterWith only 3 analysts covering the stock, estimate quality is lower than for more widely followed names; a single analyst revision can shift the consensus meaningfully, making the beat/miss record a noisier signal than it appears.
A put/call ratio of 7.12 is exceptionally elevated and indicates that options market participants are positioned heavily on the downside, introducing near-term price risk if those positions reflect hedging pressure or anticipated negative catalysts.
↑ImprovingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Put/call ratio compresses below 2.0 as the technical setup improves and near-term downside expectations moderate.
CounterAn extreme put/call ratio can reflect protective hedges by existing long-holders rather than directional bearish bets, meaning the options positioning may amplify any upside move rather than predict a decline.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
9.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 9.9 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 6.7 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 9.8 |
| Current ratio | 9.2 |
| FCF quality | 7.1 |
| Moat | 8.4 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 30%
- ▸Strong margins: 20%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
4.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.2 |
| EPS growth | 4.2 |
Momentum
1.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 25, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.5 |
| erm sentiment | 4.7 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 48%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.3 |
| quality rank | 8.9 |
| growth rank | 4.7 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.1 |
| support resistance | 8.1 |
| 52w position | 2.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.8 |
| days to cover | 6.5 |
| volatility | 4.7 |
| put call | 7.4 |
| implied vol | 5.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 9.6 |
| debt equity | 9.4 |
- ▸Above max pain $120
Catalyst
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.9 |
- ▸Earnings in 7 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_E_WIDE_MOAT|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:4.1>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:1.0<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
4.10
Upside
+25.7%
Downside
6.3%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 25, MACD bearish
EdgeTemporary headwind — High quality (9.0) with weak momentum (1.0)
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 1.0<4.5 outcome against Quality at 9.0 and asymmetric R:R of 4.10.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 9.0, Value at 8.0, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Momentum at 1.0, Growth at 4.2, and Peer rank at 5.7. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.10 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Moat High Quality Franchise
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 20% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Attractive Valuation Material Upside
Trip ifUpside to the price target falls below 10%.
- P3Confirmed Death Cross Downtrend
Trip ifPrice reclaims the 200-day moving average and holds above it for 10 consecutive trading days.
- P4Consistent Earnings Beat Record
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Extreme Put Call Ratio Risk
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 2.0 for 2 consecutive options expiry cycles.