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LILALiberty Latin America Ltd.Sell5.7·$7.62-3.79%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Liberty Latin America's deeply discounted valuation — a forward P/E of 10.7x, PEG of 0.08, and a near-term price target implying 31% upside with a 4.4-to-1 reward-to-risk ratio — is offset by quality metrics just below the minimum floor, no competitive moat, and three earnings misses in the four most recently reported quarters; the setup warrants observation rather than commitment until the earnings execution track record improves.

Thesis pillars

  • Fcf Positive Despite Gaap LossesStable
  • Deep Value And Favorable GeometryStable
  • Poor Earnings Execution Track RecordStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Liberty Latin America Ltd. (LILA) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

SellModerate Confidence

Communication Services · Telecom Services

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $7.62: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Liberty Latin America provides fixed, mobile, and subsea telecommunications services across Puerto Rico, Panama, Costa Rica, and over 20 Caribbean and Latin American countries through five reportable segments. The company serves approximately 6.8 million mobile subscribers and... Read more

$7.62+12.3% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#8 of 46 Telecom Services
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield20.94%
Stop $7.09Target $8.56(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.8:1
Analyst target$10.07+32.1%3 analysts
$8.56our TP
$7.62price
$10.07mean
$7
$12

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $7.62: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 34d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Liberty Latin America Ltd.

About Liberty Latin America Ltd.

Liberty Latin America's network served approximately 6.8 million total mobile subscribers and 1.8 million fixed-line customer relationships across Puerto Rico, Panama, Costa Rica, and over 20 Caribbean countries at December 31, 2025. The company passed 4.7 million homes with its broadband network and reported operations through five segments: Liberty Caribbean, C&W Panama, Liberty Puerto Rico, Liberty Costa Rica, and Liberty Networks. In late October 2025, Hurricane Melissa struck Jamaica, causing a reduction of approximately 136,000 RGUs and damage to network infrastructure.

Liberty Latin America earns revenue from residential and B2B services — broadband internet, video, fixed-line telephony, and mobile — primarily sold in bundles. In Jamaica, 57% of customers subscribe to double-play bundles; in Panama, 60% take triple-play packages. The Liberty Networks segment provides enterprise connectivity and wholesale services over an extensive subsea and terrestrial fiber optic network connecting over 30 markets. Mobile subscribers are split between 4.2 million prepaid and 2.6 million postpaid, with Costa Rica holding the largest mobile subscriber base at 2.2 million total. The company faces competition from FTA and DTT broadcasters, DTH satellite providers, FTTH overbuilds, and OTT content providers across its markets. Revenue is subject to foreign currency fluctuation as subsidiaries operate in local currencies across more than 20 jurisdictions.

Show full overview

Liberty Latin America's licenses are non-exclusive across most operating markets, exposing the company to overbuild risk from other licensed operators. The Puerto Rico segment relies on roaming agreements with several carriers for 'the majority of its roaming services,' subject to FCC just-and-reasonable rate standards determined on a case-by-case basis. Government entities in some markets may seek to build FTTH or DTT systems on non-commercial return terms, intensifying competition. The company holds Weather Derivatives tied to a parametric wind index to hedge hurricane damage risk — a relevant protection given Hurricane Melissa's Jamaica impact in October 2025, though coverage depends on whether wind-event thresholds are triggered.

See also: Communication Services · Telecom Services

From Liberty Latin America Ltd.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06

Recent Developments — Liberty Latin America Ltd.

Generated 2026-07-06T04:40:27Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202634d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)11.7
Mkt Cap$1.5B
EV/EBITDA9.0
Profit Mgn-11.2%
ROE-34.9%
Rev Growth-0.1%
Beta0.74
DividendNone
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C0.29bullish
IV385%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3M

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.5
Growth Rank
3.0
Value Rank
7.6

Unprofitable operations — net margin -11.2%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Roa
0.8
Rule Of 40
3.0
Moat
4.0
Current Ratio
4.3
Fcf Quality
5.4
Operating Margin
5.6
Piotroski F
5.6
Gross Margin
10.0
FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 7%, FCF yield 20.9%)No competitive moatRule of 40: 7 (fail)

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
1.4
Support Resistance
1.5
52w Position
8.8
GatesA.R:R 0.8 < 1.5@spotMomentum 7.3>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 34d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
75 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $4.77Resistance $8.11

Price Targets

$7
$9
A.Upside+12.3%
A.R:R0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0)
! asymmetry at 0.8 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (34d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LILA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $7.62: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $7.09. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the LILA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $8.56 (+12.3% upside). Prior stop was $7.09. Stop-loss: $7.09.

What are the risks of investing in LILA?

Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0).

Is LILA overvalued or undervalued?

Liberty Latin America Ltd. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 11.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about LILA?

9 analysts cover LILA with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $10.

What does Liberty Latin America Ltd. do?Liberty Latin America provides fixed, mobile, and subsea telecommunications services across Puerto Rico, Panama, Costa...

Liberty Latin America provides fixed, mobile, and subsea telecommunications services across Puerto Rico, Panama, Costa Rica, and over 20 Caribbean and Latin American countries through five reportable segments. The company serves approximately 6.8 million mobile subscribers and 1.8 million fixed-line customer relationships with bundled broadband, video, telephony, and mobile services.

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