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Liberty Latin America Ltd. (LILA) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Communication Services · Telecom Services

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $8.13: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 4.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.00; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Liberty Latin America provides fixed, mobile, and subsea telecom services across 20+ countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, plus Puerto Rico, USVI, and Costa Rica through five reportable segments. Revenue from residential and B2B cable/broadband/mobile services and... Read more

$8.13+24.5% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#23 of 40 Telecom Services
Stop $7.64Target $10.12(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 4.0:1
Analyst target$11.90+46.4%3 analysts
$10.12our TP
$8.13price
$11.90mean
$15

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $8.13: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 4.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.00; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Latin America and the Caribbean
Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -0.8%), High leverage (D/E 5.7)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)11.0
Mkt Cap$1.6B
EV/EBITDA9.0
Profit Mgn-13.8%
ROE-41.7%
Rev Growth1.7%
Beta0.87
DividendNone
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C2.00bearish
IV125%elevated
Max Pain$3-69.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicLatin America and the Caribbean
    10-K Item 1A: 'we have substantial physical assets and derive a substantial portion of our revenues from operations in Latin America and the Caribbean'
  • MEDIUMSupplierLiberty Puerto Rico roaming
    10-K Item 1A: 'Liberty Puerto Rico currently relies on roaming agreements with several carriers for the majority of its roaming services'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MEarnings in 6 days

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.1
Growth Rank
3.2
Value Rank
7.5

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
2.9
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Unprofitable operations — net margin -13.8%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Roa
0.8
Rule Of 40
3.0
Current Ratio
4.4
Fcf Quality
4.9
Moat
5.0
Piotroski F
6.7
Gross Margin
10.0
FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 5%, FCF yield 13.0%)No competitive moatRule of 40: 6 (fail)
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dA.R:R 4.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
50 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $7.88Resistance $8.73

Price Targets

$8
$10
A.Upside+24.5%
A.R:R4.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -0.8%), High leverage (D/E 5.7)
! Momentum score 3.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LILA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $8.13: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 4.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.00; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $7.64. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the LILA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $10.12 (+24.5% upside). Prior stop was $7.64. Stop-loss: $7.64.

What are the risks of investing in LILA?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Latin America and the Caribbean; Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -0.8%), High leverage (D/E 5.7).

Is LILA overvalued or undervalued?

Liberty Latin America Ltd. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 11.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about LILA?

9 analysts cover LILA with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $12.

What does Liberty Latin America Ltd. do?Liberty Latin America provides fixed, mobile, and subsea telecom services across 20+ countries in Latin America and the...

Liberty Latin America provides fixed, mobile, and subsea telecom services across 20+ countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, plus Puerto Rico, USVI, and Costa Rica through five reportable segments. Revenue from residential and B2B cable/broadband/mobile services and wholesale subsea fiber network services.

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