Value
4.3/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 7.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.3 |
| PEG | 4.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 24.0x
- ▸PEG: 2.46
LFUS · Why this verdict
Why Littelfuse (LFUS) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Littelfuse has executed cleanly across four consecutive quarters with an average 12.6% positive earnings surprise and a perfect financial-health score, but the stock now trades above its analyst consensus target at a demanding 27.6x forward earnings with a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.41-to-1 in an unfavorable direction — making it difficult to justify adding exposure at current prices.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 27.6x and a price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio of 2.82, the stock screens expensive relative to its growth trajectory, and the current price has moved through the analyst consensus target — leaving no remaining upside at these levels. Valuation breakdown | Multiple compression brings the forward price-to-earnings below 22x over the next twelve months as earnings growth absorbs part of the premium, making the valuation more defensible. | →Stable |
| CounterStrong earnings execution and a perfect financial-health score can sustain a premium multiple for extended periods; if growth accelerates further, the current price may prove to be fair value in retrospect. | ||
The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 12.6%, suggesting management consistently sets achievable expectations and then delivers above them. Earnings | The beat streak extends to six consecutive quarters with average quarterly surprise remaining above 8%. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter beat by 16.6%, which is likely to lift analyst models and reset the baseline higher; as the bar rises, sustaining double-digit beats becomes increasingly difficult. | ||
The reward-to-risk ratio stands at 0.41-to-1 in an unfavorable direction — meaning the implied downside from current levels outweighs the upside to the take-profit target — disqualifying the setup for new entry under any disciplined sizing framework. Warnings | A price reset or meaningful analyst target upgrade restores a reward-to-risk ratio above 1.5-to-1, reopening the position geometry. | Tripped↑Improving |
| CounterVolume is accumulating and the stock trades above its 200-day moving average; if buyers continue to absorb supply, analyst targets may be revised higher rather than the stock pulling back. | ||
The dividend carries an explicit yield-trap characterization — the yield appears attractive but the underlying payout metrics do not support it — raising the risk that the distribution could be reduced if earnings momentum softens. Catalyst breakdown | Cash generation grows enough to bring payout coverage to a sustainable level, evidenced by two consecutive quarters where operating cash flow grows more than 20% year-over-year. | →Stable |
| CounterA four-quarter beat streak and a perfect financial-health score suggest current earnings may be sufficient to sustain the payout; the yield-trap flag may be a conservative warning rather than a near-term call on a cut. | ||
At a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 27.6x and a price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio of 2.82, the stock screens expensive relative to its growth trajectory, and the current price has moved through the analyst consensus target — leaving no remaining upside at these levels.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Multiple compression brings the forward price-to-earnings below 22x over the next twelve months as earnings growth absorbs part of the premium, making the valuation more defensible.
CounterStrong earnings execution and a perfect financial-health score can sustain a premium multiple for extended periods; if growth accelerates further, the current price may prove to be fair value in retrospect.
The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 12.6%, suggesting management consistently sets achievable expectations and then delivers above them.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak extends to six consecutive quarters with average quarterly surprise remaining above 8%.
CounterThe most recent quarter beat by 16.6%, which is likely to lift analyst models and reset the baseline higher; as the bar rises, sustaining double-digit beats becomes increasingly difficult.
The reward-to-risk ratio stands at 0.41-to-1 in an unfavorable direction — meaning the implied downside from current levels outweighs the upside to the take-profit target — disqualifying the setup for new entry under any disciplined sizing framework.
Tripped↑ImprovingWarnings
- Expectation
- A price reset or meaningful analyst target upgrade restores a reward-to-risk ratio above 1.5-to-1, reopening the position geometry.
CounterVolume is accumulating and the stock trades above its 200-day moving average; if buyers continue to absorb supply, analyst targets may be revised higher rather than the stock pulling back.
The dividend carries an explicit yield-trap characterization — the yield appears attractive but the underlying payout metrics do not support it — raising the risk that the distribution could be reduced if earnings momentum softens.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Cash generation grows enough to bring payout coverage to a sustainable level, evidenced by two consecutive quarters where operating cash flow grows more than 20% year-over-year.
CounterA four-quarter beat streak and a perfect financial-health score suggest current earnings may be sufficient to sustain the payout; the yield-trap flag may be a conservative warning rather than a near-term call on a cut.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 4.2 |
| Gross margin | 3.7 |
| Op margin | 6.9 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.8 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
8.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.1 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 7.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $15,318,348 (0.146% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.5 |
| quality rank | 2.1 |
| growth rank | 5.9 |
Technical
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.8 |
| support resistance | 7.3 |
| 52w position | 6.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.5 |
| days to cover | 8.7 |
| volatility | 2.1 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 1.7 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 5.0 |
| debt equity | 8.9 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 30.36
- ▸High IV: 70%
Catalyst
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.8 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 5 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:5.9>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.15
Upside
+1.2%
Downside
8.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.49>1.3
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.9>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 8.6; weakest: Value at 4.3. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.6, Technical at 6.8, and Catalyst at 6.8; the weakest are Value at 4.3, Peer rank at 4.6, and Quality at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.15 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Consistent Earnings Outperformance
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in any of the next 2 reported quarters.
- P2Rich Valuation Caps Upside
Trip ifForward P/E compresses below 22x for 2 consecutive quarters while revenue growth stays above 10%.
- P3Unfavorable Reward To Risk GeometryTripped
Trip ifStock price declines more than 10% from current levels ($476.90), widening upside to the take-profit target and pushing reward-to-risk above 1.5-to-1.
- P4Dividend Yield Safety Concern
Trip ifOperating cash flow grows more than 20% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, covering the dividend at a sustainable payout ratio.