Value
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.1 |
| P/S | 9.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.44
- ▸Attractively valued
LEVI · Why this verdict
Why Levi Strauss & (LEVI) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business scores as a wide-moat franchise with a Piotroski F-score of 8 out of 9, 25% return on equity, strong gross margins, and best-in-class margins relative to sector peers — indicating durable competitive advantages that support sustained profitability. Quality breakdown | Over 12 months, return on equity stays above 20% and gross margins do not compress materially, confirming that the moat is intact. | →Stable |
| CounterThe company's revenue is roughly 94% concentrated in a single brand and has material geographic exposure outside the United States — two concentration risks that could erode the moat's value if consumer preferences shift or international headwinds intensify. | ||
The company has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the past four quarters, with an average surprise of roughly 23% — a pattern of consistently delivering above what analysts model, including a 63% beat in the oldest of the four quarters. Catalyst breakdown | The beat streak extends to 5 or more consecutive quarters over the next 12 months, sustaining the track record of outperformance. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings in 8 days introduce near-term binary risk; a miss after four consecutive beats would break the streak and could disproportionately reprice investor confidence in management's execution. | ||
The stock is just below its near-term price target with only roughly 1.5% headroom remaining and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.25-to-1 — not a favorable entry point even for a high-quality business, as the near-term upside has largely been realized. Price targets | A better entry opens if a pullback restores at least 8% upside to a refreshed price target, improving the reward-to-risk ratio above 1.0. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh-quality franchises with consistent earnings beats can trade above near-term targets for extended periods if investors are willing to pay for visibility; the asymmetry may improve materially after a beat at the upcoming earnings report. | ||
The stock is above all major moving averages with a golden cross in place, rising on-balance volume, and MACD momentum positive — the technical structure supports the thesis that the business quality is translating into price appreciation. Momentum breakdown | Momentum remains constructive if the stock stays above its 200-day moving average and on-balance volume continues rising for the next 3 months. | →Stable |
| CounterWith the stock near its 52-week high and implied volatility elevated at 76%, any disappointment at the upcoming earnings event could quickly reverse the technical setup and trigger a sharp pullback. | ||
The business scores as a wide-moat franchise with a Piotroski F-score of 8 out of 9, 25% return on equity, strong gross margins, and best-in-class margins relative to sector peers — indicating durable competitive advantages that support sustained profitability.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Over 12 months, return on equity stays above 20% and gross margins do not compress materially, confirming that the moat is intact.
CounterThe company's revenue is roughly 94% concentrated in a single brand and has material geographic exposure outside the United States — two concentration risks that could erode the moat's value if consumer preferences shift or international headwinds intensify.
The company has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the past four quarters, with an average surprise of roughly 23% — a pattern of consistently delivering above what analysts model, including a 63% beat in the oldest of the four quarters.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The beat streak extends to 5 or more consecutive quarters over the next 12 months, sustaining the track record of outperformance.
CounterEarnings in 8 days introduce near-term binary risk; a miss after four consecutive beats would break the streak and could disproportionately reprice investor confidence in management's execution.
The stock is just below its near-term price target with only roughly 1.5% headroom remaining and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.25-to-1 — not a favorable entry point even for a high-quality business, as the near-term upside has largely been realized.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- A better entry opens if a pullback restores at least 8% upside to a refreshed price target, improving the reward-to-risk ratio above 1.0.
CounterHigh-quality franchises with consistent earnings beats can trade above near-term targets for extended periods if investors are willing to pay for visibility; the asymmetry may improve materially after a beat at the upcoming earnings report.
The stock is above all major moving averages with a golden cross in place, rising on-balance volume, and MACD momentum positive — the technical structure supports the thesis that the business quality is translating into price appreciation.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum remains constructive if the stock stays above its 200-day moving average and on-balance volume continues rising for the next 3 months.
CounterWith the stock near its 52-week high and implied volatility elevated at 76%, any disappointment at the upcoming earnings event could quickly reverse the technical setup and trigger a sharp pullback.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Levi Strauss combines a wide economic moat, four consecutive earnings beats averaging over 22% above estimates, and strong quality metrics — but the stock has essentially reached its near-term price target with only about 1.5% headroom remaining, leaving the reward-to-risk ratio at 0.25-to-1 and limiting the attractiveness of adding exposure at current levels despite the underlying business quality.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 8.5 |
| ROA | 4.8 |
| Gross margin | 8.3 |
| Op margin | 5.0 |
| Net margin | 4.8 |
| Current ratio | 5.7 |
| FCF quality | 6.4 |
| Moat | 7.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 25%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.0 |
| EPS growth | 8.5 |
Momentum
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 7.3 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.6 |
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 6.8 |
Insider
3.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.3 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $39,536,791 (0.421% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.1 |
| quality rank | 8.2 |
| growth rank | 5.7 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.5 |
| support resistance | 3.5 |
| 52w position | 9.1 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.2 |
| days to cover | 7.6 |
| volatility | 4.4 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 5.7 |
| debt equity | 4.9 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.33
- ▸High IV: 81%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.8 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 5 days
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (4)
- MOMENTUM:5.2>=4.5
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d
Warning (3)
- MOMENTUM:5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- INSIDER:0.42%=MODERATE
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.12
Upside
+1.0%
Downside
8.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 52, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.32>1.3
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.2>=4.5. Top dim: Value at 7.5; weakest: Insider at 3.4. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.5, Growth at 7.2, and Catalyst at 7.1; the weakest are Insider at 3.4, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.1, and Technical at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 3 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.12 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Moat High Quality Franchise
Trip ifGross margin compresses below 55% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Consistent Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters, breaking the beat streak.
- P3Price Target Nearly Reached
Trip ifUpside to the analyst price target remains below 5% for 3 consecutive months without a target revision above $28.
- P4Strong Technical Momentum
Trip ifStock closes below its 200-day moving average for 4 consecutive weeks.