Value
7.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.8 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.7x
- ▸Attractively valued
KOF · Why this verdict
Why Coca Cola Femsa (KOF) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The dividend carries a safety warning — the current yield level may not be adequately supported by free cash flow, raising the risk of a cut that would likely pressure the share price disproportionately for income-oriented holders. Catalyst | Free cash flow covers the dividend by more than 1.5x for 2 consecutive quarters, removing the coverage concern. | →Stable |
| CounterThe business does generate meaningful free cash flow, and the safety warning may overstate the near-term cut risk; if underlying operations remain stable, the payout may be more secure than the warning implies. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 12.7x — attractively valued for a consumer defensive business — and a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 signals decent balance-sheet discipline; however, with only about 1.3% of headroom remaining to the near-term resistance target, the entry point captures little upside even if the valuation case is correct. Value | A price pullback of at least 5% from current levels restores a margin of safety consistent with the valuation story. | →Stable |
| CounterA cheap multiple can persist and even compress further if earnings disappoint repeatedly; with two recent misses on record, the market may assign a lower multiple, meaning inexpensive does not guarantee near-term price appreciation. | ||
The two most recent reported quarters both came in below analyst estimates, representing back-to-back misses after two earlier beats; that shift in the earnings trajectory erodes confidence in near-term guidance reliability. Earnings | EPS beats consensus estimates in 2 consecutive quarters, confirming the miss pattern has been interrupted. | →Stable |
| CounterThe two quarters prior to the recent misses were both beats, indicating a mixed rather than structurally broken track record; the pattern may reflect timing or currency-related headwinds rather than a persistent operational shortfall. | ||
Revenue growth and earnings growth components both sit near the floor of the quality range, indicating the business is generating negligible top- and bottom-line expansion at present. Growth | Earnings per share exceeds $2.50 for 2 consecutive quarters, confirming a meaningful recovery in the earnings trajectory. | →Stable |
| CounterConsumer defensive businesses are not expected to grow rapidly and often command a premium on stability; flat growth does not automatically mean value destruction if the balance sheet and cash flows remain sound. | ||
The dividend carries a safety warning — the current yield level may not be adequately supported by free cash flow, raising the risk of a cut that would likely pressure the share price disproportionately for income-oriented holders.
→StableCatalyst
- Expectation
- Free cash flow covers the dividend by more than 1.5x for 2 consecutive quarters, removing the coverage concern.
CounterThe business does generate meaningful free cash flow, and the safety warning may overstate the near-term cut risk; if underlying operations remain stable, the payout may be more secure than the warning implies.
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 12.7x — attractively valued for a consumer defensive business — and a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 signals decent balance-sheet discipline; however, with only about 1.3% of headroom remaining to the near-term resistance target, the entry point captures little upside even if the valuation case is correct.
→StableValue
- Expectation
- A price pullback of at least 5% from current levels restores a margin of safety consistent with the valuation story.
CounterA cheap multiple can persist and even compress further if earnings disappoint repeatedly; with two recent misses on record, the market may assign a lower multiple, meaning inexpensive does not guarantee near-term price appreciation.
The two most recent reported quarters both came in below analyst estimates, representing back-to-back misses after two earlier beats; that shift in the earnings trajectory erodes confidence in near-term guidance reliability.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS beats consensus estimates in 2 consecutive quarters, confirming the miss pattern has been interrupted.
CounterThe two quarters prior to the recent misses were both beats, indicating a mixed rather than structurally broken track record; the pattern may reflect timing or currency-related headwinds rather than a persistent operational shortfall.
Revenue growth and earnings growth components both sit near the floor of the quality range, indicating the business is generating negligible top- and bottom-line expansion at present.
→StableGrowth
- Expectation
- Earnings per share exceeds $2.50 for 2 consecutive quarters, confirming a meaningful recovery in the earnings trajectory.
CounterConsumer defensive businesses are not expected to grow rapidly and often command a premium on stability; flat growth does not automatically mean value destruction if the balance sheet and cash flows remain sound.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Despite a forward earnings multiple of 12.7x and a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9, two of the most recent four quarters missed estimates, revenue and earnings growth are near-zero, and the stock has already reached its near-term resistance target with only about 1.3% of headroom remaining — the setup favors patience over adding exposure.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.3 |
| ROA | 5.0 |
| Gross margin | 5.2 |
| Op margin | 5.1 |
| Net margin | 3.9 |
| Current ratio | 4.3 |
| FCF quality | 7.7 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
1.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.8 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 1.5 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.4 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 6.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
3.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.1 |
| quality rank | 2.3 |
| growth rank | 2.3 |
Technical
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.6 |
| support resistance | 3.9 |
| 52w position | 8.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 9.1 |
| volatility | 5.8 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 3.8 |
| beta | 9.8 |
| debt equity | 7.1 |
Catalyst
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.1 |
| dividend safety | 4.8 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.5>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:24d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.01
Upside
-5.4%
Downside
5.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.7) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.01 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.7, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.0, and Sentiment at 6.3; the weakest are Growth at 1.4, Peer rank at 3.4, and Catalyst at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.01 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation At Resistance
Trip ifForward P/E multiple expands above 16x for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the valuation discount has been fully captured.
- P2Consecutive Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS beats consensus estimates by more than 3% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Near Zero Revenue Earnings Growth
Trip ifEarnings per share exceeds $2.50 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Dividend Coverage Uncertainty
Trip ifFree cash flow covers the dividend by more than 1.5x for 2 consecutive quarters.