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KOFCoca Cola Femsa S.A.B. de C.V.Hold5.5·$112.51+0.19%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Despite a forward earnings multiple of 12.7x and a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9, two of the most recent four quarters missed estimates, revenue and earnings growth are near-zero, and the stock has already reached its near-term resistance target with only about 1.3% of headroom remaining — the setup favors patience over adding exposure.

Thesis pillars

  • Dividend Coverage UncertaintyImproving
  • Attractive Valuation At ResistanceStable
  • Consecutive Earnings MissesImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Coca Cola Femsa S.A.B. de C.V. (KOF) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldQualityModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Non-Alcoholic

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $112.51, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.9% away).

Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V., a franchise bottler, produces, markets, sells, and distributes Coca-Cola trademarked beverages in Mexico, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay. The company offers sparkling beverages, including colas... Read more

$112.51-6.4% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#8 of 13 Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield3.77%(5y avg 3.74%)Payout623.47%at-risk
Stop $107.77Target $114.75(resistance)A.R:R -1.3:1
Analyst target$121.05+7.6%13 analysts
$114.75our TP
$112.51price
$121.05mean
$106
$134

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $112.51, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.9% away). Chart setup: RSI 60 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 49d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Oct 23, 202649d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Consumer Defensive): +0.8
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (3.9% away)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)14.2
Mkt Cap
EV/EBITDA1.6
Profit Mgn8.1%
ROE17.1%
Rev Growth4.7%
Beta0.53
Dividend3.77%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.43bullish
IV46%normal
Max Pain$115+2.2% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
2.5
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.6<4.5A.R:R -1.3=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 49d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
60 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $107.84Resistance $117.09

Price Targets

$108
$115
A.Upside-6.4%
A.R:R-1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.4% upside)
! momentum at 3.6 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-23 (49d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KOF stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $112.51, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.9% away). Chart setup: RSI 60 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $114.75 (+2.0%), stop $107.77 (−4.4%), A.R:R -1.3:1. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the KOF stock price target?

Take-profit target: $114.75 (-6.4% upside). Target $114.75 (+2.0%), stop $107.77 (−4.4%), A.R:R -1.3:1. Stop-loss: $107.77.

What are the risks of investing in KOF?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.9% away); Negative momentum.

Is KOF overvalued or undervalued?

Coca Cola Femsa S.A.B. de C.V. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 14.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about KOF?

17 analysts cover KOF with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $121.

What does Coca Cola Femsa S.A.B. de C.V. do?Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V., a franchise bottler, produces, markets, sells, and distributes Coca-Cola trademarked...

Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V., a franchise bottler, produces, markets, sells, and distributes Coca-Cola trademarked beverages in Mexico, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay. The company offers sparkling beverages, including colas and flavored sparkling beverages; waters; and other non-carbonated beverages, including tea, sports drinks, energy drinks, fruit-based beverages, juice, coffee, milk, value-added dairy, and plant-based drinks. It also distributes and sells beer products under the Heineken, Estrella Galicia, and Therezópolis brands; alcoholic ready-to-drink beverages, such as Bacardí Coca-Cola and Topo Chico Hard Seltzer; and Monster products. The company sells its products to distributors, retail outlets, wholesale supermarkets, discount and convenience stores, retailers, points-of-sale outlets, restaurants and bars, stadiums, auditoriums, theaters, and home deliveries. Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico.

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