Value
3.6/10data confidence 60%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.8 |
| P/S | 7.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
KEN · Why this verdict
Why Kenon Holdings (KEN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is growing at 73% year-over-year, a pace that would ordinarily command a premium multiple, yet the valuation is flagged as expensive relative to the sector — suggesting the market has already capitalized a significant portion of the growth outlook into the price. Growth breakdown | If the growth rate sustains and justifies the current multiple, revenue should continue to grow above 40% year-over-year for at least 2 consecutive quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterIf the growth rate is decelerating from its current 73% pace, or if the market re-rates the multiple lower as growth normalizes, the expensive valuation becomes a structural headwind rather than a manageable premium. | ||
The dividend yield has been flagged as potentially unsafe — a yield trap — where the headline payout appears attractive but is not credibly supported by underlying earnings or cash flow, risking a cut that would reprice the stock sharply lower. Catalyst breakdown | If the dividend proves sustainable, the company should generate sufficient earnings coverage to maintain the dividend without a reduction for at least 4 consecutive quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA strong Piotroski financial health score of 8 out of 9 indicates broad balance-sheet strength; the dividend may be funded through asset sales or non-recurring cash flows that the pure earnings coverage ratio understates. | ||
Price is deeply oversold with RSI at 23 — historically associated with potential reversals — yet the stock remains above its 200-day moving average while on-balance volume is declining, leaving the technical picture mixed and the case for recovery unconfirmed. Momentum breakdown | If technical conditions improve, on-balance volume should turn positive and price should sustain above the 200-day moving average for 4 consecutive weeks. | →Stable |
| CounterFalling on-balance volume despite an elevated price above the long-term average is a distribution signal; the stock may be tracing out a topping pattern rather than setting up a bounce, and the RSI could stay depressed for an extended period. | ||
The company's Piotroski financial health score of 8 out of 9 reflects broad-based improvement across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency indicators, providing a quality anchor that partially offsets the weak near-term momentum and earnings execution. Quality breakdown | If financial health deteriorates meaningfully, the Piotroski score should drop below 6 for 2 consecutive reported periods. | →Stable |
| CounterThe two most recent earnings reports both missed estimates, and two of the five consecutive earnings misses carry meaningful surprise deficits — persistent miss trends can erode the Piotroski score over subsequent quarters as profitability metrics weaken. | ||
Revenue is growing at 73% year-over-year, a pace that would ordinarily command a premium multiple, yet the valuation is flagged as expensive relative to the sector — suggesting the market has already capitalized a significant portion of the growth outlook into the price.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- If the growth rate sustains and justifies the current multiple, revenue should continue to grow above 40% year-over-year for at least 2 consecutive quarters.
CounterIf the growth rate is decelerating from its current 73% pace, or if the market re-rates the multiple lower as growth normalizes, the expensive valuation becomes a structural headwind rather than a manageable premium.
The dividend yield has been flagged as potentially unsafe — a yield trap — where the headline payout appears attractive but is not credibly supported by underlying earnings or cash flow, risking a cut that would reprice the stock sharply lower.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- If the dividend proves sustainable, the company should generate sufficient earnings coverage to maintain the dividend without a reduction for at least 4 consecutive quarters.
CounterA strong Piotroski financial health score of 8 out of 9 indicates broad balance-sheet strength; the dividend may be funded through asset sales or non-recurring cash flows that the pure earnings coverage ratio understates.
Price is deeply oversold with RSI at 23 — historically associated with potential reversals — yet the stock remains above its 200-day moving average while on-balance volume is declining, leaving the technical picture mixed and the case for recovery unconfirmed.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- If technical conditions improve, on-balance volume should turn positive and price should sustain above the 200-day moving average for 4 consecutive weeks.
CounterFalling on-balance volume despite an elevated price above the long-term average is a distribution signal; the stock may be tracing out a topping pattern rather than setting up a bounce, and the RSI could stay depressed for an extended period.
The company's Piotroski financial health score of 8 out of 9 reflects broad-based improvement across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency indicators, providing a quality anchor that partially offsets the weak near-term momentum and earnings execution.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- If financial health deteriorates meaningfully, the Piotroski score should drop below 6 for 2 consecutive reported periods.
CounterThe two most recent earnings reports both missed estimates, and two of the five consecutive earnings misses carry meaningful surprise deficits — persistent miss trends can erode the Piotroski score over subsequent quarters as profitability metrics weaken.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Exceptional reported revenue growth of 73% year-over-year and a strong financial health score coexist with an expensive valuation, two recent earnings misses, and negative price momentum — with the analyst target implying 33% upside but upside already deemed exhausted by near-term technicals, the setup favors caution.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.7 |
| ROA | 0.5 |
| Gross margin | 0.8 |
| Op margin | 0.5 |
| Net margin | 4.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.3 |
| FCF quality | 6.4 |
| Moat | 5.6 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 73% YoY
Momentum
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 7.6 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 9.6 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 4.1 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 39) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.3 |
| quality rank | 5.3 |
| growth rank | 7.5 |
Technical
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.2 |
| support resistance | 8.1 |
| 52w position | 4.2 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.9 |
| days to cover | 9.8 |
| volatility | 4.1 |
| put call | 9.2 |
| implied vol | 4.3 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 6.5 |
Catalyst
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 1.5 |
| dividend safety | 3.5 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:54d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
6.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.6 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 10.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.00 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.7, and Momentum at 7.1; the weakest are Catalyst at 3.2, Value at 3.6, and Peer rank at 3.8. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Growth Expensive Valuation
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 30% year-over-year for 2 consecutive reported quarters.
- P2Dividend Yield Trap Warning
Trip ifCompany announces a dividend reduction greater than 20% from the current payout level.
- P3Oversold Momentum Unconfirmed Recovery
Trip ifOn-balance volume turns positive and RSI recovers above 45 for 4 consecutive weeks.
- P4Strong Financial Health Foundation
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score drops below 6 for 2 consecutive reported periods.