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KDPKeurig Dr Pepper Inc.Sell4.9·$31.82+0.16%
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Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Non-Alcoholic

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $31.82 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Weak overall score: 4.9/10.

Keurig Dr Pepper manufactures, markets, distributes, and sells hot and cold beverages and single-serve brewing systems in North America through U.S. Refreshment Beverages, U.S. Coffee, and International segments. The company sells to retailers including Walmart (approximately... Read more

$31.82-1.1% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#10 of 13 Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-37.81%
IncomeYield2.89%(5y avg 2.49%)Payout68.15%
Stop $30.66Target $31.66(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst target$33.53+5.4%17 analysts
$31.66our TP
$31.82price
$33.53mean
$28
$42

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $31.82 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Weak overall score: 4.9/10. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 37d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 23, 202637d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Weak overall score: 4.9/10
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.5
P/E (Fwd)12.6
Mkt Cap$43.2B
EV/EBITDA17.9
Profit Mgn10.8%
ROE6.3%
Rev Growth9.4%
Beta0.42
Dividend2.89%
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.23bullish
IV41%normal
Max Pain$31-2.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomerWalmart16%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our largest retailer, Walmart, represented approximately 16% of our consolidated net sales in 2025.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-01Item 1.01MEDIUM
    On March 30, 2026, KDP issued 4,500,000 shares of Series A Convertible Perpetual Preferred Stock for $4.5 billion aggregate purchase price to KKR and Apollo investors to finance the acquisition of JDE Peet's N.V.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-01Item 2.01MEDIUM
    KDP completed the acquisition of JDE Peet's N.V. on or around March 30, 2026, a global pure-play coffee company with Jacobs, L'OR, and Peet's brands; proceeds from the preferred stock issuance were used to fund the transaction.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
4.8

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.8
Bollinger
1.1
52w Position
8.3

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
3.5
Value Rank
4.3
Growth Rank
6.2
GatesA.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 37d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
74 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $28.27Resistance $32.31

Price Targets

$31
$32
A.Upside-0.5%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.7% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (37d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KDP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $31.82 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Weak overall score: 4.9/10. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $30.66. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the KDP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $31.66 (-1.1% upside). Prior stop was $30.66. Stop-loss: $30.66.

What are the risks of investing in KDP?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak overall score: 4.9/10; Weak growth.

Is KDP overvalued or undervalued?

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. trades at a P/E of 23.5 (forward 12.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about KDP?

22 analysts cover KDP with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $34.

What does Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. do?Keurig Dr Pepper manufactures, markets, distributes, and sells hot and cold beverages and single-serve brewing systems...

Keurig Dr Pepper manufactures, markets, distributes, and sells hot and cold beverages and single-serve brewing systems in North America through U.S. Refreshment Beverages, U.S. Coffee, and International segments. The company sells to retailers including Walmart (approximately 16% of 2025 net sales), bottlers, and away-from-home channels, employing roughly 30,600 people.

Related stocks: CELH (Celsius Holdings, Inc.) · COKE (Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc.) · MNST (Monster Beverage Corporation) · COCO (The Vita Coco Company, Inc.) · PEP (Pepsico, Inc.)
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