Value
9.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.9 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 9.8 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.53
- ▸Attractively valued
KB · Why this verdict
Why KB Financial Group (KB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 9.1 times and a PEG ratio of 0.54, the bank screens attractively valued relative to both its earnings trajectory and its peer group on a price-to-earnings basis — the stock ranks in the top quintile for value among its peers. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E multiple stays below 12x and earnings per share growth remains positive over the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA low multiple may be structurally justified for a regional bank in a lower-growth environment; without a catalyst to re-rate the multiple higher, inexpensive valuation alone rarely drives sustained outperformance in financial services. | ||
Three of the last four quarters delivered positive earnings surprises, with the most recent quarter delivering a 26% upside surprise and an average beat of roughly 8% across the four-quarter record, indicating a consistent capacity to meet or exceed expectations. Earnings | EPS surprise remains positive in each of the next 2 quarterly reports. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings estimates for regional banks are highly sensitive to interest rate movements and credit cycle turns; a single quarter of elevated provisions or net interest margin compression could break the beat streak without signaling a longer-term structural problem. | ||
The stock is in a golden cross configuration, trading above all major moving averages with rising on-balance volume and bullish MACD — signals that suggest broad-based accumulation rather than a narrow or thin price advance. Momentum breakdown | On-balance volume continues rising and price stays above the 200-day moving average for the next 60 days. | →Stable |
| CounterRSI at 61 is approaching overbought territory and the stock sits near the upper end of its 52-week range; if broader sentiment turns, technical support could erode quickly from these elevated levels. | ||
The current price of $113.63 has moved above the near-term resistance target of $112.08, leaving no remaining upside buffer to that level; the reward-to-risk ratio at the current price is negative 0.21-to-1, meaning the setup is structurally unattractive for new entry at this price. Price targets | Price retreats below $112.08 and the setup resets to a level where reward-to-risk turns favorable. | →Stable |
| CounterA stock trading above its resistance can continue higher if institutional momentum carries it; the resistance level is not a hard ceiling, and a strong upcoming earnings report could quickly justify a higher price basis and a new target. | ||
At a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 9.1 times and a PEG ratio of 0.54, the bank screens attractively valued relative to both its earnings trajectory and its peer group on a price-to-earnings basis — the stock ranks in the top quintile for value among its peers.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E multiple stays below 12x and earnings per share growth remains positive over the next four quarters.
CounterA low multiple may be structurally justified for a regional bank in a lower-growth environment; without a catalyst to re-rate the multiple higher, inexpensive valuation alone rarely drives sustained outperformance in financial services.
Three of the last four quarters delivered positive earnings surprises, with the most recent quarter delivering a 26% upside surprise and an average beat of roughly 8% across the four-quarter record, indicating a consistent capacity to meet or exceed expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise remains positive in each of the next 2 quarterly reports.
CounterEarnings estimates for regional banks are highly sensitive to interest rate movements and credit cycle turns; a single quarter of elevated provisions or net interest margin compression could break the beat streak without signaling a longer-term structural problem.
The stock is in a golden cross configuration, trading above all major moving averages with rising on-balance volume and bullish MACD — signals that suggest broad-based accumulation rather than a narrow or thin price advance.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- On-balance volume continues rising and price stays above the 200-day moving average for the next 60 days.
CounterRSI at 61 is approaching overbought territory and the stock sits near the upper end of its 52-week range; if broader sentiment turns, technical support could erode quickly from these elevated levels.
The current price of $113.63 has moved above the near-term resistance target of $112.08, leaving no remaining upside buffer to that level; the reward-to-risk ratio at the current price is negative 0.21-to-1, meaning the setup is structurally unattractive for new entry at this price.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Price retreats below $112.08 and the setup resets to a level where reward-to-risk turns favorable.
CounterA stock trading above its resistance can continue higher if institutional momentum carries it; the resistance level is not a hard ceiling, and a strong upcoming earnings report could quickly justify a higher price basis and a new target.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
A deeply discounted regional bank trading at a single-digit forward multiple with genuine earnings delivery and positive momentum breadth, but the stock has run above its near-term resistance target of $112.08, leaving no remaining upside buffer and a negative reward-to-risk that makes new entry unattractive at the current price.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.3 |
| ROA | 0.5 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Strong margins: 37%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
5.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.3 |
| EPS growth | 5.4 |
Momentum
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 9.4 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.3 |
| erm sentiment | 4.9 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
6.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.1 |
| quality rank | 6.0 |
| growth rank | 5.7 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.4 |
| support resistance | 3.5 |
| 52w position | 8.5 |
| gap | 3.0 |
- ▸Extreme gap up (6.0%) - may pull back
Risk (lower is worse)
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.9 |
| days to cover | 8.7 |
| volatility | 2.4 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 4.3 |
| beta | 9.0 |
Catalyst
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.6 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 287.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.3>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:24d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.09
Upside
-1.0%
Downside
11.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 24d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:7.3>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 9.5; weakest: Technical at 4.3. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.5, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.4, and Momentum at 7.3; the weakest are Technical at 4.3, Quality at 4.8, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.09 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Valuation Discount
Trip ifForward P/E multiple rises above 14x with no corresponding upward revision to earnings estimates.
- P2Earnings Consistency
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarterly reports.
- P3Momentum Breadth
Trip ifOn-balance volume turns negative and price falls below the 200-day moving average for 4 consecutive weeks.
- P4Price Past Near Term Target
Trip ifPrice retreats below $112.08 for at least 5 consecutive trading sessions, creating a new upside buffer to the resistance level.