Value
6.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.8 |
| p ocf | 7.7 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸P/OCF: 12.6x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
JLL · Why this verdict
Why Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten consensus estimates in each of the last four quarters, with an average positive surprise exceeding 10%, suggesting management is consistently under-promising and over-delivering. Earnings | EPS surprise remains positive (above 0%) for at least the next two reported quarters, with the average quarterly beat staying above 5%. | →Stable |
| CounterA four-quarter beat streak can reflect one-time items or lapping easy comparisons; if the macro environment for real estate services softens, the cycle of positive surprises could quickly reverse. | ||
The business carries a wide economic moat alongside a near-perfect balance-sheet quality score (Piotroski F-Score 8/9), indicating durable competitive positioning that supports long-run returns. Quality breakdown | Gross and operating margins remain stable or expand over the next 12 months, and the Piotroski score stays at 7 or above. | →Stable |
| CounterThe free cash flow conversion flag — free cash flow at only 31% of net income — suggests reported earnings may overstate true cash generation, which would weaken the quality case materially if it persists. | ||
With roughly 13% headroom to the price target versus approximately 7% downside to the stop level, the risk/reward ratio sits at about 2-to-1 in favor of bulls, which clears the standard asymmetry bar. Price targets | The stock closes the gap to its price target of $337 within 12 months without triggering the downside stop. | →Stable |
| CounterThe options market is signaling elevated concern — the put/call ratio is 3.82 and implied volatility is 65% — suggesting sophisticated participants see meaningful downside risk that the headline ratio does not capture. | ||
The stock is below its 200-day moving average, but that average is still rising at roughly 1% per month, consistent with a pullback within an intact longer-term uptrend rather than a confirmed breakdown. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims the 200-day moving average within two quarters and the moving average continues its upward slope. | →Stable |
| CounterVolume distribution is falling (declining on-balance volume), which suggests sellers are absorbing rallies; if the moving average's slope flattens or turns negative, the uptrend thesis is falsified. | ||
The company has beaten consensus estimates in each of the last four quarters, with an average positive surprise exceeding 10%, suggesting management is consistently under-promising and over-delivering.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise remains positive (above 0%) for at least the next two reported quarters, with the average quarterly beat staying above 5%.
CounterA four-quarter beat streak can reflect one-time items or lapping easy comparisons; if the macro environment for real estate services softens, the cycle of positive surprises could quickly reverse.
The business carries a wide economic moat alongside a near-perfect balance-sheet quality score (Piotroski F-Score 8/9), indicating durable competitive positioning that supports long-run returns.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Gross and operating margins remain stable or expand over the next 12 months, and the Piotroski score stays at 7 or above.
CounterThe free cash flow conversion flag — free cash flow at only 31% of net income — suggests reported earnings may overstate true cash generation, which would weaken the quality case materially if it persists.
With roughly 13% headroom to the price target versus approximately 7% downside to the stop level, the risk/reward ratio sits at about 2-to-1 in favor of bulls, which clears the standard asymmetry bar.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- The stock closes the gap to its price target of $337 within 12 months without triggering the downside stop.
CounterThe options market is signaling elevated concern — the put/call ratio is 3.82 and implied volatility is 65% — suggesting sophisticated participants see meaningful downside risk that the headline ratio does not capture.
The stock is below its 200-day moving average, but that average is still rising at roughly 1% per month, consistent with a pullback within an intact longer-term uptrend rather than a confirmed breakdown.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day moving average within two quarters and the moving average continues its upward slope.
CounterVolume distribution is falling (declining on-balance volume), which suggests sellers are absorbing rallies; if the moving average's slope flattens or turns negative, the uptrend thesis is falsified.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Four straight earnings beats averaging over 10% upside surprise point to a business with consistent execution, yet below-average free cash flow conversion and a confirmed death cross leave the setup mixed — the risk/reward favors patience over a new entry.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.1 |
| ROA | 3.0 |
| Gross margin | 6.2 |
| Op margin | 1.3 |
| Net margin | 1.7 |
| Current ratio | 4.4 |
| FCF quality | 2.5 |
| Moat | 7.6 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 31% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.3 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.2 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 2.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.5 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 75)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $240,239 (0.002% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.7 |
| quality rank | 7.5 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.1 |
| 52w position | 8.0 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.8 |
| days to cover | 7.7 |
| volatility | 4.8 |
| put call | 8.4 |
| implied vol | 5.5 |
| beta | 5.9 |
| debt equity | 7.8 |
Catalyst
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.6 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:26d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.26
Upside
+2.8%
Downside
11.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 26d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 7.7; weakest: Technical at 3.3. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.7, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.0, and Catalyst at 6.9; the weakest are Technical at 3.3, Quality at 4.4, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.26 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Streak Discipline
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Economic Moat Quality Franchise
Trip ifFree cash flow as a percentage of net income rises above 50% — if it stays below 31% for 2 more quarters, the quality pillar is falsified.
- P3Favorable Risk Reward Geometry
Trip ifPrice falls more than 7% from current levels, breaching the downside boundary of the current risk/reward setup.
- P4Momentum Pullback In Uptrend
Trip ifThe 200-day moving average slope turns negative (below 0%/30d) for 2 consecutive months.