Value
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.8 |
| P/S | 9.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.08
JBTM · Why this verdict
Why JBT Marel (JBTM) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has exceeded consensus earnings estimates in all four of the past four quarters with an average positive surprise of approximately 14%, demonstrating consistent operational execution and guidance discipline that the depressed price has not yet reflected. Earnings | Earnings per share surprise remains above 5% for at least two additional quarters and the stock closes more than 10% of the gap toward the analyst price target of $155.51. | →Stable |
| CounterA death cross has formed and the stock is below all moving averages, suggesting the market is discounting risks that the backward-looking earnings beats do not capture; technical deterioration has historically preceded fundamental misses. | ||
Free cash flow is running at 224% of net income, meaning the company is generating substantially more cash than reported profits suggest; this exceptional conversion provides a wide buffer against earnings disappointments and validates the income statement's quality. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow as a percentage of net income stays above 150% for two consecutive quarters, confirming the conversion is structural rather than a one-period event. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow running well above net income can reflect favorable working-capital timing or deferred investment; if capital expenditures normalize or working capital reverses, the ratio could compress quickly toward or below 100%. | ||
A death cross has formed and the stock is trading below all of its moving averages with a bearish MACD, indicating a confirmed intermediate-term downtrend; this technical configuration represents a hard block that prevents position initiation regardless of how attractive the fundamental picture appears. Engine gate (failed) | The death cross resolves with the stock closing above the 200-day moving average for at least 10 consecutive trading days, removing the technical impediment to entry. | →Stable |
| CounterRising on-balance volume despite the price weakness can signal institutional accumulation occurring below the surface; the technical signal may be lagging rather than leading the next directional move. | ||
The put-to-call ratio in the options market is extraordinarily elevated at 225, reflecting that market participants are positioned overwhelmingly defensively; this degree of hedging activity signals active protection against a significant downside move. Risk breakdown | The put-to-call ratio compresses below 5.0, indicating that the defensive positioning is being unwound as confidence in the outlook improves. | →Stable |
| CounterAn extreme put-to-call ratio can reflect hedging by long-term holders rather than outright bearish speculation; when those hedges expire or are rolled off, the underlying stock can rally sharply as the overhang clears. | ||
The company has exceeded consensus earnings estimates in all four of the past four quarters with an average positive surprise of approximately 14%, demonstrating consistent operational execution and guidance discipline that the depressed price has not yet reflected.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings per share surprise remains above 5% for at least two additional quarters and the stock closes more than 10% of the gap toward the analyst price target of $155.51.
CounterA death cross has formed and the stock is below all moving averages, suggesting the market is discounting risks that the backward-looking earnings beats do not capture; technical deterioration has historically preceded fundamental misses.
Free cash flow is running at 224% of net income, meaning the company is generating substantially more cash than reported profits suggest; this exceptional conversion provides a wide buffer against earnings disappointments and validates the income statement's quality.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow as a percentage of net income stays above 150% for two consecutive quarters, confirming the conversion is structural rather than a one-period event.
CounterFree cash flow running well above net income can reflect favorable working-capital timing or deferred investment; if capital expenditures normalize or working capital reverses, the ratio could compress quickly toward or below 100%.
A death cross has formed and the stock is trading below all of its moving averages with a bearish MACD, indicating a confirmed intermediate-term downtrend; this technical configuration represents a hard block that prevents position initiation regardless of how attractive the fundamental picture appears.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The death cross resolves with the stock closing above the 200-day moving average for at least 10 consecutive trading days, removing the technical impediment to entry.
CounterRising on-balance volume despite the price weakness can signal institutional accumulation occurring below the surface; the technical signal may be lagging rather than leading the next directional move.
The put-to-call ratio in the options market is extraordinarily elevated at 225, reflecting that market participants are positioned overwhelmingly defensively; this degree of hedging activity signals active protection against a significant downside move.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- The put-to-call ratio compresses below 5.0, indicating that the defensive positioning is being unwound as confidence in the outlook improves.
CounterAn extreme put-to-call ratio can reflect hedging by long-term holders rather than outright bearish speculation; when those hedges expire or are rolled off, the underlying stock can rally sharply as the overhang clears.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
A four-quarter earnings beat streak averaging 14% upside surprise, exceptional free cash flow conversion at 224% of net income, and an attractive forward price-to-earnings multiple of 13.6 times create a compelling fundamental profile, but a death cross and price below all moving averages represent a hard technical block—the fundamental case cannot be accessed until the price trend stabilizes.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.3 |
| ROA | 1.9 |
| Gross margin | 3.1 |
| Op margin | 3.7 |
| Net margin | 2.2 |
| Current ratio | 4.0 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 224% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.9 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.7 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 2.8 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 86)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat/negative + RSI 86 (late-cycle distribution risk)
Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 21%
Insider
5.1/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.2 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.6 |
| quality rank | 2.2 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.7 |
| support resistance | 0.5 |
| 52w position | 7.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.0 |
| days to cover | 4.1 |
| volatility | 4.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 5.0 |
| beta | 7.4 |
| debt equity | 8.4 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 24.65
Catalyst
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.3 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 27.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:29d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.8>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
0.34
Upside
+5.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 86
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 29d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:6.8>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 7.5; weakest: Technical at 2.9. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.5, Catalyst at 6.9, and Momentum at 6.8; the weakest are Technical at 2.9, Peer rank at 3.2, and Quality at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.34 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Streak Execution
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in any single quarter, ending the 4-quarter consecutive beat streak.
- P2Exceptional Free Cash Flow Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow as a percentage of net income falls below 100% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Death Cross Technical Hard Block
Trip ifPrice closes above the 200-day moving average for more than 10 consecutive trading days, confirming the death cross has resolved.
- P4Extreme Put Call Ratio Defensive Positioning
Trip ifPut-to-call ratio compresses below 5.0, indicating the extreme defensive positioning has unwound.