Value
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.9 |
| P/S | 8.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.3 |
| PEG | 3.9 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 28.5x
- ▸PEG: 2.69
JBHT · Why this verdict
Why J.B. Hunt Transport Services, I (JBHT) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
J.B. Hunt has delivered three consecutive earnings beats and converts free cash flow at 133% of net income, but the stock trades at a forward P/E of 30.8x with a PEG of 2.76 — a premium the current growth profile may not justify — and with only 1.6% to nearest resistance against 6.4% potential downside, the 0.25-to-1 risk/reward does not compensate for holding risk at current prices.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At a forward P/E of 30.8x and a PEG ratio of 2.76, the stock screens as one of the most expensively valued names in its peer group relative to earnings growth — a premium that can compress sharply if the earnings beat streak breaks or volume trends deteriorate. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E compresses below 22x through earnings growth outpacing the share price, or price normalization, over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThree consecutive earnings beats suggest the market may be paying for execution quality and freight cycle optionality rather than simply projecting current growth; a premium multiple can persist if beats continue. | ||
Three consecutive earnings beats with an average positive surprise of approximately 9.5% — including a 20.7% beat in the oldest of the three quarters — demonstrates consistent execution above market expectations and provides a near-term earnings floor. Catalyst breakdown | Earnings beats continue for at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, with average quarterly surprise remaining above 3%. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAt a 30.8x forward P/E, any in-line quarter — even one that technically beats — risks a sharp multiple de-rating; the bar for a positive price reaction is higher when expectations are already embedded in a premium valuation. | ||
Price momentum has failed the minimum threshold, with on-balance volume in a declining trend — suggesting active distribution even as the stock holds above its long-term moving average, a divergence that has historically resolved to the downside. Momentum breakdown | On-balance volume trend turns positive and sustains for 60 consecutive days, with momentum recovering above 4.5, signaling distribution has ended. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe stock remaining above its 200-day moving average while approaching a 52-week high (within 3.5%) may indicate the volume distribution reflects profit-taking by early holders rather than fundamental sellers exiting ahead of a deterioration. | ||
With only 1.6% between the current price and the nearest resistance level and a risk/reward ratio of 0.25-to-1 against 6.4% potential downside, the geometry does not compensate for the risks attached to a premium-valued freight name with weakening momentum. Price targets | Upside to the resistance level widens to more than 10% through a meaningful pullback below $258 or a significant upward revision in analyst targets. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAn earnings catalyst approaching in 28 days — with three consecutive beats in the recent history — could be precisely what drives the stock through current resistance and establishes a new range, making the near-term geometry temporarily misleading. | ||
At a forward P/E of 30.8x and a PEG ratio of 2.76, the stock screens as one of the most expensively valued names in its peer group relative to earnings growth — a premium that can compress sharply if the earnings beat streak breaks or volume trends deteriorate.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E compresses below 22x through earnings growth outpacing the share price, or price normalization, over the next 12 months.
CounterThree consecutive earnings beats suggest the market may be paying for execution quality and freight cycle optionality rather than simply projecting current growth; a premium multiple can persist if beats continue.
Three consecutive earnings beats with an average positive surprise of approximately 9.5% — including a 20.7% beat in the oldest of the three quarters — demonstrates consistent execution above market expectations and provides a near-term earnings floor.
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings beats continue for at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, with average quarterly surprise remaining above 3%.
CounterAt a 30.8x forward P/E, any in-line quarter — even one that technically beats — risks a sharp multiple de-rating; the bar for a positive price reaction is higher when expectations are already embedded in a premium valuation.
Price momentum has failed the minimum threshold, with on-balance volume in a declining trend — suggesting active distribution even as the stock holds above its long-term moving average, a divergence that has historically resolved to the downside.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- On-balance volume trend turns positive and sustains for 60 consecutive days, with momentum recovering above 4.5, signaling distribution has ended.
CounterThe stock remaining above its 200-day moving average while approaching a 52-week high (within 3.5%) may indicate the volume distribution reflects profit-taking by early holders rather than fundamental sellers exiting ahead of a deterioration.
With only 1.6% between the current price and the nearest resistance level and a risk/reward ratio of 0.25-to-1 against 6.4% potential downside, the geometry does not compensate for the risks attached to a premium-valued freight name with weakening momentum.
↑ImprovingPrice targets
- Expectation
- Upside to the resistance level widens to more than 10% through a meaningful pullback below $258 or a significant upward revision in analyst targets.
CounterAn earnings catalyst approaching in 28 days — with three consecutive beats in the recent history — could be precisely what drives the stock through current resistance and establishes a new range, making the near-term geometry temporarily misleading.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.1 |
| ROA | 4.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 3.0 |
| Net margin | 2.7 |
| Current ratio | 4.8 |
| Moat | 6.1 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
Growth
8.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.4 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 8.6 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 5.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $4,162,813 (0.015% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.7 |
| quality rank | 6.0 |
| growth rank | 8.5 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.9 |
| support resistance | 3.8 |
| 52w position | 9.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.3 |
| days to cover | 8.9 |
| volatility | 4.9 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 6.8 |
| beta | 5.8 |
| debt equity | 8.4 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.4 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:81d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.71
Upside
-4.6%
Downside
6.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5. Top dim: Growth at 8.7; weakest: Value at 4.2. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.7, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.6, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Value at 4.2, Quality at 4.3, and Momentum at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.71 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Rich Valuation Relative To Growth
Trip ifForward P/E compresses below 22x, indicating the premium valuation has normalized toward the growth rate.
- P2Earnings Beat Streak Execution Floor
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Momentum Deterioration And Distribution
Trip ifOn-balance volume trend turns positive and sustains for 60 consecutive days, with momentum score rising above 4.5.
- P4Thin Upside At Current Price
Trip ifStock price falls below $258, creating upside to the $287.67 resistance level above 11%.