Value
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.8 |
| P/S | 8.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 3.8 |
| PEG | 3.8 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 31.0x
- ▸PEG: 2.78
JBHT · Why this verdict
Why J.B. Hunt Transport Services, I (JBHT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At a forward P/E of 30.8x and a PEG ratio of 2.76, the stock screens as one of the most expensively valued names in its peer group relative to earnings growth — a premium that can compress sharply if the earnings beat streak breaks or volume trends deteriorate. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E compresses below 22x through earnings growth outpacing the share price, or price normalization, over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThree consecutive earnings beats suggest the market may be paying for execution quality and freight cycle optionality rather than simply projecting current growth; a premium multiple can persist if beats continue. | ||
Three consecutive earnings beats with an average positive surprise of approximately 9.5% — including a 20.7% beat in the oldest of the three quarters — demonstrates consistent execution above market expectations and provides a near-term earnings floor. Catalyst breakdown | Earnings beats continue for at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, with average quarterly surprise remaining above 3%. | →Stable |
| CounterAt a 30.8x forward P/E, any in-line quarter — even one that technically beats — risks a sharp multiple de-rating; the bar for a positive price reaction is higher when expectations are already embedded in a premium valuation. | ||
Price momentum has failed the minimum threshold, with on-balance volume in a declining trend — suggesting active distribution even as the stock holds above its long-term moving average, a divergence that has historically resolved to the downside. Momentum breakdown | On-balance volume trend turns positive and sustains for 60 consecutive days, with momentum recovering above 4.5, signaling distribution has ended. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock remaining above its 200-day moving average while approaching a 52-week high (within 3.5%) may indicate the volume distribution reflects profit-taking by early holders rather than fundamental sellers exiting ahead of a deterioration. | ||
With only 1.6% between the current price and the nearest resistance level and a risk/reward ratio of 0.25-to-1 against 6.4% potential downside, the geometry does not compensate for the risks attached to a premium-valued freight name with weakening momentum. Price targets | Upside to the resistance level widens to more than 10% through a meaningful pullback below $258 or a significant upward revision in analyst targets. | →Stable |
| CounterAn earnings catalyst approaching in 28 days — with three consecutive beats in the recent history — could be precisely what drives the stock through current resistance and establishes a new range, making the near-term geometry temporarily misleading. | ||
At a forward P/E of 30.8x and a PEG ratio of 2.76, the stock screens as one of the most expensively valued names in its peer group relative to earnings growth — a premium that can compress sharply if the earnings beat streak breaks or volume trends deteriorate.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E compresses below 22x through earnings growth outpacing the share price, or price normalization, over the next 12 months.
CounterThree consecutive earnings beats suggest the market may be paying for execution quality and freight cycle optionality rather than simply projecting current growth; a premium multiple can persist if beats continue.
Three consecutive earnings beats with an average positive surprise of approximately 9.5% — including a 20.7% beat in the oldest of the three quarters — demonstrates consistent execution above market expectations and provides a near-term earnings floor.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings beats continue for at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, with average quarterly surprise remaining above 3%.
CounterAt a 30.8x forward P/E, any in-line quarter — even one that technically beats — risks a sharp multiple de-rating; the bar for a positive price reaction is higher when expectations are already embedded in a premium valuation.
Price momentum has failed the minimum threshold, with on-balance volume in a declining trend — suggesting active distribution even as the stock holds above its long-term moving average, a divergence that has historically resolved to the downside.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- On-balance volume trend turns positive and sustains for 60 consecutive days, with momentum recovering above 4.5, signaling distribution has ended.
CounterThe stock remaining above its 200-day moving average while approaching a 52-week high (within 3.5%) may indicate the volume distribution reflects profit-taking by early holders rather than fundamental sellers exiting ahead of a deterioration.
With only 1.6% between the current price and the nearest resistance level and a risk/reward ratio of 0.25-to-1 against 6.4% potential downside, the geometry does not compensate for the risks attached to a premium-valued freight name with weakening momentum.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Upside to the resistance level widens to more than 10% through a meaningful pullback below $258 or a significant upward revision in analyst targets.
CounterAn earnings catalyst approaching in 28 days — with three consecutive beats in the recent history — could be precisely what drives the stock through current resistance and establishes a new range, making the near-term geometry temporarily misleading.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
J.B. Hunt has delivered three consecutive earnings beats and converts free cash flow at 133% of net income, but the stock trades at a forward P/E of 30.8x with a PEG of 2.76 — a premium the current growth profile may not justify — and with only 1.6% to nearest resistance against 6.4% potential downside, the 0.25-to-1 risk/reward does not compensate for holding risk at current prices.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.6 |
| ROA | 4.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 2.7 |
| Net margin | 2.6 |
| Current ratio | 4.8 |
| FCF quality | 9.4 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 133% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
5.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.7 |
| EPS growth | 7.5 |
Momentum
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.8 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 3.9 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $4,736,041 (0.018% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.3 |
| quality rank | 6.0 |
| growth rank | 6.2 |
Technical
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.0 |
| support resistance | 5.8 |
| 52w position | 8.8 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.0 |
| days to cover | 8.0 |
| volatility | 4.2 |
| put call | 9.6 |
| implied vol | 3.4 |
| beta | 5.8 |
| debt equity | 8.3 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.3 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Earnings in 10 days
- ▸Dividend: 63.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.5<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-2.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:10d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
-2.48
Upside
-16.5%
Downside
6.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 10d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Technical at 6.7) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:4.5<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-2.5=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -2.48 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 6.7, Risk (lower is worse) at 6.7, and Catalyst at 6.4; the weakest are Value at 3.8, Momentum at 4.5, and Peer rank at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.48 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Rich Valuation Relative To Growth
Trip ifForward P/E compresses below 22x, indicating the premium valuation has normalized toward the growth rate.
- P2Earnings Beat Streak Execution Floor
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Momentum Deterioration And Distribution
Trip ifOn-balance volume trend turns positive and sustains for 60 consecutive days, with momentum score rising above 4.5.
- P4Thin Upside At Current Price
Trip ifStock price falls below $258, creating upside to the $287.67 resistance level above 11%.