Value
7.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 7.9 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.85
IVZ · Why this verdict
Why Invesco (IVZ) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At a forward P/E of 9.7x and a PEG ratio of 0.38, the stock screens as attractively valued and ranks near the top of its peer group on valuation metrics, implying the market is pricing in continued operational weakness that may not materialize. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E re-rates above 13x over the next 12 months as earnings improve and the discount to peers narrows. | →Stable |
| CounterLow multiples in asset management often reflect structural fee pressure and AUM sensitivity; cheap can stay cheap without a catalyst to re-rate, and the split earnings record (two beats, two misses) does not yet establish a durable recovery trend. | ||
Business quality falls below the minimum floor — driven by weak return metrics and thin margins — placing the stock in a category that historically requires a higher discount to compensate for elevated execution risk. Warnings | Quality metrics recover above the minimum threshold, evidenced by two consecutive quarters of improving return on assets and operating margin expansion. | →Stable |
| CounterThe Piotroski F-Score of 6.7 out of 9 and positive earnings growth suggest quality weakness is concentrated in profitability ratios rather than broad operational deterioration, and the balance sheet remains adequate with a current ratio component scoring 3.3. | ||
With only 0.4% between the current price and the nearest resistance level, and a risk/reward ratio of 0.06-to-1 against 6.7% potential downside, the current price offers almost no reward relative to the risk of holding through the next catalyst. Price targets | Upside to the resistance level widens to more than 10% through either a meaningful pullback or a significant upward revision in analyst consensus targets. | →Stable |
| CounterRising on-balance volume and a position above the 200-day moving average indicate underlying buying pressure that could push through resistance, particularly if the approaching earnings catalyst (in 35 days) produces a beat. | ||
The dividend yield has been flagged as potentially unsafe — offering a high payout that earnings and cash flow coverage may not sustain — raising the risk of a cut that would reprice the shares lower and remove the income rationale. Catalyst breakdown | Dividend coverage improves materially over the next 12 months, with the payout ratio falling to sustainable levels relative to free cash flow. | →Stable |
| CounterWith a PEG of 0.38 and two recent quarterly beats, the company may be on an earnings trajectory that rebuilds coverage over time, making the current yield a feature rather than a trap if execution continues to improve. | ||
At a forward P/E of 9.7x and a PEG ratio of 0.38, the stock screens as attractively valued and ranks near the top of its peer group on valuation metrics, implying the market is pricing in continued operational weakness that may not materialize.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E re-rates above 13x over the next 12 months as earnings improve and the discount to peers narrows.
CounterLow multiples in asset management often reflect structural fee pressure and AUM sensitivity; cheap can stay cheap without a catalyst to re-rate, and the split earnings record (two beats, two misses) does not yet establish a durable recovery trend.
Business quality falls below the minimum floor — driven by weak return metrics and thin margins — placing the stock in a category that historically requires a higher discount to compensate for elevated execution risk.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Quality metrics recover above the minimum threshold, evidenced by two consecutive quarters of improving return on assets and operating margin expansion.
CounterThe Piotroski F-Score of 6.7 out of 9 and positive earnings growth suggest quality weakness is concentrated in profitability ratios rather than broad operational deterioration, and the balance sheet remains adequate with a current ratio component scoring 3.3.
With only 0.4% between the current price and the nearest resistance level, and a risk/reward ratio of 0.06-to-1 against 6.7% potential downside, the current price offers almost no reward relative to the risk of holding through the next catalyst.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Upside to the resistance level widens to more than 10% through either a meaningful pullback or a significant upward revision in analyst consensus targets.
CounterRising on-balance volume and a position above the 200-day moving average indicate underlying buying pressure that could push through resistance, particularly if the approaching earnings catalyst (in 35 days) produces a beat.
The dividend yield has been flagged as potentially unsafe — offering a high payout that earnings and cash flow coverage may not sustain — raising the risk of a cut that would reprice the shares lower and remove the income rationale.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Dividend coverage improves materially over the next 12 months, with the payout ratio falling to sustainable levels relative to free cash flow.
CounterWith a PEG of 0.38 and two recent quarterly beats, the company may be on an earnings trajectory that rebuilds coverage over time, making the current yield a feature rather than a trap if execution continues to improve.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
IVZ screens as attractively valued at a forward P/E of 9.7x and PEG of 0.38 and ranks near the top of its peer group on value, but business quality remains below the minimum threshold, the dividend yield carries an unsafe signal, and the price has reached near-term resistance with only 0.4% headroom — a 0.06-to-1 risk/reward that does not support adding exposure.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 1.8 |
| Gross margin | 1.8 |
| Op margin | 7.6 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 3.3 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
Growth
7.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.0 |
| EPS growth | 9.0 |
Momentum
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.2 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.8 |
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 6.5 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.55 (n=1)
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.4 |
| quality rank | 0.7 |
| growth rank | 8.0 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.3 |
| support resistance | 6.6 |
| 52w position | 8.1 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.2 |
| days to cover | 7.2 |
| volatility | 3.3 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 4.4 |
| beta | 4.7 |
| debt equity | 9.4 |
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.6 |
| dividend safety | 4.8 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:25d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.0<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.56
Upside
-4.1%
Downside
7.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 40 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.60>1.3
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 7.5 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:4.0<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.5, Sentiment at 7.1, and Value at 7.0; the weakest are Quality at 3.4, Momentum at 4.0, and Peer rank at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.56 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation Among Peers
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 13x, indicating the valuation discount has been fully recognized by the market.
- P2Below Threshold Business Quality
Trip ifQuality score rises to 4.0 or above for 2 consecutive evaluation periods, crossing the minimum threshold cited in the bear case.
- P3Price At Resistance Thin Upside
Trip ifUpside to take-profit expands above 10% through price pullback or analyst target revision above $32.
- P4Dividend Yield Trap Risk
Trip ifReported dividend payout ratio falls below 80% of free cash flow for 2 consecutive quarters, confirming the yield is covered.