Value
9.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.1 |
| P/S | 8.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 6.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.01
- ▸Attractively valued
IAG · Why this verdict
Why Iamgold (IAG) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score7.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue has grown 116% year-over-year, a rate that stands out even within the high-growth subsector of the gold industry, supported by rising volume accumulation and positive price momentum. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth remains above 40% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, demonstrating that the exceptional growth trajectory is not a single-quarter event. | →Stable |
| CounterTriple-digit revenue growth rates are nearly impossible to sustain; deceleration is almost certain, and if it occurs faster than the market anticipates, the growth premium embedded in the current price could unwind. | ||
The put/call ratio stands at 12.59 — an extremely elevated level — indicating that options participants are overwhelmingly positioned for downside protection ahead of upcoming catalysts, with implied volatility at 109% reflecting large expected price swings. Risk breakdown | Put/call ratio falls below 5.0 as the near-term catalyst resolves without a negative surprise, confirming the hedging was precautionary rather than predictive. | →Stable |
| CounterExtremely high put/call ratios can function as a contrarian signal; when hedging reaches this extreme, a positive catalyst can trigger rapid unwind of bearish positions and amplify upside far beyond what fundamentals alone would imply. | ||
The business earns a 28% return on equity, carries 29% operating margins, scores a perfect 9 of 9 on financial health, and is characterized as having a wide economic moat — the full profile of a franchise that compounds returns across cycles. Quality breakdown | Return on equity remains above 20% and operating margins stay above 25% for the next four quarters, sustaining the high-quality franchise profile. | →Stable |
| CounterThe wide moat assessment and strong returns may partially reflect a gold price cycle at recent highs; a meaningful decline in gold prices could compress margins and return on equity sharply, narrowing the quality gap versus less profitable peers. | ||
The stock screens at a forward earnings multiple of 7.4 times with a near-zero PEG ratio and is characterized as attractively valued — an unusual setup for a business carrying the quality characteristics described above. Valuation breakdown | Forward earnings multiple remains below 12 times over the next two quarters, sustaining the value case even as earnings estimates may be revised upward. | →Stable |
| CounterLow forward multiples in the gold sector often reflect commodity price uncertainty rather than structural undervaluation; if gold prices pull back and earnings estimates decline, the apparent cheapness may not translate into price appreciation. | ||
Three of the last four quarterly earnings reports beat analyst estimates, with an average positive surprise of 18.6% — a level of outperformance suggesting the business is executing materially ahead of what external forecasters expect. Earnings | EPS beats consensus in both of the next two quarterly reports, sustaining the three-of-four or better beat rate with average surprise above 10%. | →Stable |
| CounterOne quarterly miss in the four-quarter window shows the streak is not perfectly consistent; after three strong beats that have raised expectations, the next report faces a significantly higher bar that increases miss risk. | ||
Revenue has grown 116% year-over-year, a rate that stands out even within the high-growth subsector of the gold industry, supported by rising volume accumulation and positive price momentum.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 40% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, demonstrating that the exceptional growth trajectory is not a single-quarter event.
CounterTriple-digit revenue growth rates are nearly impossible to sustain; deceleration is almost certain, and if it occurs faster than the market anticipates, the growth premium embedded in the current price could unwind.
The put/call ratio stands at 12.59 — an extremely elevated level — indicating that options participants are overwhelmingly positioned for downside protection ahead of upcoming catalysts, with implied volatility at 109% reflecting large expected price swings.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Put/call ratio falls below 5.0 as the near-term catalyst resolves without a negative surprise, confirming the hedging was precautionary rather than predictive.
CounterExtremely high put/call ratios can function as a contrarian signal; when hedging reaches this extreme, a positive catalyst can trigger rapid unwind of bearish positions and amplify upside far beyond what fundamentals alone would imply.
The business earns a 28% return on equity, carries 29% operating margins, scores a perfect 9 of 9 on financial health, and is characterized as having a wide economic moat — the full profile of a franchise that compounds returns across cycles.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity remains above 20% and operating margins stay above 25% for the next four quarters, sustaining the high-quality franchise profile.
CounterThe wide moat assessment and strong returns may partially reflect a gold price cycle at recent highs; a meaningful decline in gold prices could compress margins and return on equity sharply, narrowing the quality gap versus less profitable peers.
The stock screens at a forward earnings multiple of 7.4 times with a near-zero PEG ratio and is characterized as attractively valued — an unusual setup for a business carrying the quality characteristics described above.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward earnings multiple remains below 12 times over the next two quarters, sustaining the value case even as earnings estimates may be revised upward.
CounterLow forward multiples in the gold sector often reflect commodity price uncertainty rather than structural undervaluation; if gold prices pull back and earnings estimates decline, the apparent cheapness may not translate into price appreciation.
Three of the last four quarterly earnings reports beat analyst estimates, with an average positive surprise of 18.6% — a level of outperformance suggesting the business is executing materially ahead of what external forecasters expect.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS beats consensus in both of the next two quarterly reports, sustaining the three-of-four or better beat rate with average surprise above 10%.
CounterOne quarterly miss in the four-quarter window shows the streak is not perfectly consistent; after three strong beats that have raised expectations, the next report faces a significantly higher bar that increases miss risk.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Iamgold combines an unusually strong quality profile — including a wide economic moat, 28% returns on equity, 29% operating margins, and a perfect financial health score — with deep value screening at a forward earnings multiple of 7.4 times and a near-zero PEG, while delivering three consecutive positive earnings surprises averaging 18.6%; the primary near-term risk is an extremely elevated put/call ratio signaling heavy hedging activity ahead of the next catalyst.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 9.3 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 5.6 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.7 |
| FCF quality | 6.8 |
| Moat | 8.2 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 28%
- ▸Strong margins: 29%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 116% YoY
Momentum
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 6.1 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 5.2 |
| Volume | 3.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+7.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.5 |
| Price target | 9.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 50%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.8 |
| quality rank | 5.6 |
| growth rank | 6.6 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.3 |
| support resistance | 5.6 |
| 52w position | 3.3 |
| gap | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 8.2 |
| implied vol | 1.6 |
| beta | 2.5 |
| debt equity | 9.4 |
- ▸High IV: 70%
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
V9 Gate blocked: SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Basic Materials:count=3:cap=3. Wait for improvement.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_VALUE_MOS33->V9:SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:5.9>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:33d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Basic Materials:count=3:cap=3
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.61
Upside
+30.8%
Downside
11.8%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRange Bound — RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 2.25>1.3
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP gate's sector=Basic Materials:count=3:cap=3 outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 2.61.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 9.2, and Quality at 8.5; the weakest are Technical at 4.3, Peer rank at 5.0, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.61 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Moat High Quality Franchise
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 15% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Deep Value Forward Multiple
Trip ifForward earnings multiple expands above 15x as earnings expectations decline.
- P3Earnings Beat Streak Strong Surprises
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Outsized Revenue Growth Trajectory
Trip ifRevenue growth decelerates below 40% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Extreme Put Call Hedging Risk
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 3.0, signaling elevated hedging has dissipated.