Value
8.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.6 |
| P/S | 9.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 8.1 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.82
- ▸Attractively valued
HVT · Why this verdict
Why Haverty Furniture Companies, In (HVT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Haverty Furniture is a small-cap furniture retailer with attractive valuation (forward P/E 11.2x), a 4.5% dividend and excellent cash conversion, but price is above the analyst target and earnings arrive in 3 days.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock is attractively valued, with a forward P/E of 11.2x and a PEG of 0.93, and pays a 4.5% dividend. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 14x and the dividend yield holds near 4.5% over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterDividend safety scores only 4.8/10, so the yield could be cut if earnings soften. | ||
Cash conversion is excellent at 154% FCF/NI, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow stays above net income and Piotroski F-Score stays at 8 or higher. | →Stable |
| CounterOperating margin (1.3/10) and net margin (1.5/10) are thin, and quality ranks lowest among peers at 0.0/10. | ||
Haverty has not missed in the last four quarters, with 3 beats and 1 in-line result and an average surprise of 10.5%. Earnings track record | Beats continue and quarterly revenue lands near the $206.9M estimate. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterEarnings are due in 3 days, a binary event, and implied volatility is very high at 137%. | ||
The price of $29.28 is above the $28.05 analyst target, with upside of -4.2% against 7.5% downside and the stock only 2.0% from its 52-week high. Warnings | Analysts raise targets above the current price or price pulls back toward the $28.47 entry level. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA breakout setup with a golden cross and bullish MACD may keep the stock rising, making targets stale. | ||
Supplier concentration is a risk: 63.0% of goods are not produced domestically, alongside high short interest. Bear case | Sourcing remains stable without cost shocks over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterTariffs, shipping disruptions or foreign supplier problems could cut margins that are already thin. | ||
The stock is attractively valued, with a forward P/E of 11.2x and a PEG of 0.93, and pays a 4.5% dividend.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 14x and the dividend yield holds near 4.5% over 12 months.
CounterDividend safety scores only 4.8/10, so the yield could be cut if earnings soften.
Cash conversion is excellent at 154% FCF/NI, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow stays above net income and Piotroski F-Score stays at 8 or higher.
CounterOperating margin (1.3/10) and net margin (1.5/10) are thin, and quality ranks lowest among peers at 0.0/10.
Haverty has not missed in the last four quarters, with 3 beats and 1 in-line result and an average surprise of 10.5%.
↓DeterioratingEarnings track record
- Expectation
- Beats continue and quarterly revenue lands near the $206.9M estimate.
CounterEarnings are due in 3 days, a binary event, and implied volatility is very high at 137%.
The price of $29.28 is above the $28.05 analyst target, with upside of -4.2% against 7.5% downside and the stock only 2.0% from its 52-week high.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- Analysts raise targets above the current price or price pulls back toward the $28.47 entry level.
CounterA breakout setup with a golden cross and bullish MACD may keep the stock rising, making targets stale.
Supplier concentration is a risk: 63.0% of goods are not produced domestically, alongside high short interest.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Sourcing remains stable without cost shocks over the next 12 months.
CounterTariffs, shipping disruptions or foreign supplier problems could cut margins that are already thin.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.5 |
| ROA | 1.7 |
| Gross margin | 8.2 |
| Op margin | 1.3 |
| Net margin | 1.5 |
| Current ratio | 6.1 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 154% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
7.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.4 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 7.8 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 5.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.8 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: -0.40 (n=1)
Insider
4.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $591,107 (0.125% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.0 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 4.0 |
Technical
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.1 |
| support resistance | 3.6 |
| 52w position | 9.2 |
| gap | 7.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| volatility | 4.2 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.8 |
| debt equity | 6.3 |
- ▸High IV: 91%
- ▸Above max pain $12
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.2 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Dividend: 4.5%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.57
Upside
-4.4%
Downside
7.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 58, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.8 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.57 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.0, Growth at 7.2, and Momentum at 6.5; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.8, Insider at 4.0, and Catalyst at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.57 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation Dividend
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 16x from current 11.2x.
- P2Cash Conversion Piotroski
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 from current 9 of 9.
- P3Consistent Earnings Beats
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice falls below the $26.85 stop-loss level.
- P5Import Supplier Concentration
Trip ifImported goods share exceeds 75% of purchases from current 63%.