Value
7.3/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.2 |
| P/S | 9.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 5.8 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.9x
- ▸PEG: 1.31
- ▸Attractively valued
HVT · Why this verdict
Why Haverty Furniture Companies, In (HVT) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Haverty Furniture combines an attractive valuation, a perfect Piotroski F-Score, and a bullish technical breakout with a recent earnings beat streak, but momentum and asymmetry gates fail right at the engine's thresholds now that the shares have reached their analyst target.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company shows a strong earnings beat streak of three out of the last four quarters, and the setup is read as carrying a genuine earnings catalyst heading into the next report. Bull case | The beat streak should continue, or at minimum the company should avoid a miss, over the next 12 months for this pillar to hold. | — |
| CounterThe most recently reported quarter actually came in exactly in line rather than beating, showing the streak has already cooled from three straight beats to an in-line result. | ||
The company posts a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, indicating strong underlying financial health signals. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski F-Score should hold at or near this perfect level over the next 12 months. | — |
| CounterBelow-average business quality is separately flagged as a key risk in the data, and the peer comparison ranks quality at the bottom of the group, suggesting the strong Piotroski read does not extend across every quality dimension. | ||
Valuation screens as attractive, with a forward P/E of 9.7x and a PEG ratio of 1.20, both of which the data characterizes as attractively valued. Valuation breakdown | The forward P/E and PEG ratio should hold at current levels or the market should re-rate the shares higher over the next 12 months. | Tripped— |
| CounterThe peer comparison ranks this company at the very bottom of its group on quality, which could justify the market continuing to apply a discount multiple rather than re-rating higher. | ||
The technical setup is read as a breakout, with a golden cross in place, the shares trading above all major moving averages, and MACD reading bullish. Chart pattern detection | The breakout setup should hold with price remaining above key moving averages over the next 12 months. | — |
| CounterOn-balance volume shows distribution rather than accumulation, and momentum itself sits exactly at the engine's minimum threshold, both of which weigh against the bullish chart pattern being fully confirmed. | ||
The risk/reward setup is unfavorable at current levels, with the asymmetry gate failing at the spot price and momentum sitting exactly at the engine's minimum threshold, alongside the shares having already reached their analyst-derived target. Engine gate (failed) | The asymmetry ratio should improve meaningfully above the engine's threshold and momentum should clear its floor over the next 12 months for these gate failures to reverse. | — |
| CounterEvery other gate in the checklist, including insider activity, recent filings, and news events, comes back clean, and the setup still carries a genuine earnings-catalyst read, suggesting the failed gates may be a near-term valuation constraint rather than a broader deterioration. | ||
The company shows a strong earnings beat streak of three out of the last four quarters, and the setup is read as carrying a genuine earnings catalyst heading into the next report.
—Bull case
- Expectation
- The beat streak should continue, or at minimum the company should avoid a miss, over the next 12 months for this pillar to hold.
CounterThe most recently reported quarter actually came in exactly in line rather than beating, showing the streak has already cooled from three straight beats to an in-line result.
The company posts a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, indicating strong underlying financial health signals.
—Quality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski F-Score should hold at or near this perfect level over the next 12 months.
CounterBelow-average business quality is separately flagged as a key risk in the data, and the peer comparison ranks quality at the bottom of the group, suggesting the strong Piotroski read does not extend across every quality dimension.
Valuation screens as attractive, with a forward P/E of 9.7x and a PEG ratio of 1.20, both of which the data characterizes as attractively valued.
Tripped—Valuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward P/E and PEG ratio should hold at current levels or the market should re-rate the shares higher over the next 12 months.
CounterThe peer comparison ranks this company at the very bottom of its group on quality, which could justify the market continuing to apply a discount multiple rather than re-rating higher.
The technical setup is read as a breakout, with a golden cross in place, the shares trading above all major moving averages, and MACD reading bullish.
—Chart pattern detection
- Expectation
- The breakout setup should hold with price remaining above key moving averages over the next 12 months.
CounterOn-balance volume shows distribution rather than accumulation, and momentum itself sits exactly at the engine's minimum threshold, both of which weigh against the bullish chart pattern being fully confirmed.
The risk/reward setup is unfavorable at current levels, with the asymmetry gate failing at the spot price and momentum sitting exactly at the engine's minimum threshold, alongside the shares having already reached their analyst-derived target.
—Engine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should improve meaningfully above the engine's threshold and momentum should clear its floor over the next 12 months for these gate failures to reverse.
CounterEvery other gate in the checklist, including insider activity, recent filings, and news events, comes back clean, and the setup still carries a genuine earnings-catalyst read, suggesting the failed gates may be a near-term valuation constraint rather than a broader deterioration.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.5 |
| ROA | 1.7 |
| Gross margin | 8.2 |
| Op margin | 1.3 |
| Net margin | 1.5 |
| Current ratio | 6.1 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 154% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
7.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.4 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.4 |
| MACD | 9.6 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.1 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 71)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.4 |
| Price target | 7.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (2.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.5 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.3 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 4.0 |
Technical
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.3 |
| support resistance | 1.8 |
| 52w position | 9.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 2.7 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 6.3 |
| debt equity | 6.3 |
- ▸High IV: 87%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.8 |
| dividend safety | 4.8 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Dividend: 4.6%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.0>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:72d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.17
Upside
-2.6%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.0>=4.5. Top dim: Value at 7.3; weakest: Peer rank at 3.8. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.3, Growth at 7.2, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.5; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.8, Technical at 4.5, and Momentum at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.17 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Recent Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifMiss count rises above 0 in the trailing four-quarter window.
- P2Attractive Valuation MultipleTripped
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 15x from the current 9.7x.
- P3Bullish Technical Breakout
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day moving average for more than 5 trading days.
- P4Failed Momentum Asymmetry Gates
Trip ifThe asymmetry ratio rises above 1.5 from the current 0.04.
- P5Perfect Piotroski Financial Health
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 out of 9 from the current 9.