Value
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.6 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.2 |
| PEG | 4.1 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 24.4x
- ▸PEG: 2.44
HUBG · Why this verdict
Why Hub Group (HUBG) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Hub Group's freight-and-logistics business scores below the minimum quality threshold with no identifiable competitive moat and declining revenue, while the stock trades within a fraction of its near-term resistance with an unfavorable risk/reward; despite a constructive technical picture, the fundamental case does not support the current price.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Business quality scores 3.2 out of 10—below the minimum investment threshold—with no identifiable competitive moat, operating margins near zero, and revenue declining 5% year-over-year, pointing to a structurally weak earnings base. Bear case | Quality score rises above 4 over the next four quarters, driven by margin expansion and a return to positive revenue growth. | ↑Improving |
| CounterFree cash flow converts at 56% of net income, indicating the business does generate actual cash even as accounting margins appear thin—an improvement in pricing or volume could lift quality metrics faster than the current score implies. | ||
The stock sits just below the $45.87 resistance level—less than 1% of headroom—with an unfavorable risk/reward that leaves almost no margin of safety between the current price and the near-term ceiling. Price targets | Price pulls back to below $42, restoring at least 9% upside to the $45.87 resistance and creating a setup where the risk/reward is more compelling. | →Stable |
| CounterThe technical momentum picture—golden cross, above all moving averages, RSI at 63, bullish MACD—can sustain a stock near resistance for an extended period, and a positive earnings surprise could push through the ceiling. | ||
Intermodal and Transportation Solutions represents 57% of the business, meaning that any softness in domestic freight volumes would fall disproportionately on consolidated results. Risk breakdown | Intermodal segment revenue grows more than 5% year-over-year for two consecutive quarters, confirming the end-market underpins the current valuation. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe elevated put-to-call ratio and high implied volatility signal broad positioning uncertainty—if the segment performs better than feared, concentration in intermodal could amplify upside rather than downside. | ||
A technical breakout—golden cross, price above all major moving averages, RSI at 63, bullish MACD—has developed against a backdrop of declining revenue and below-threshold quality metrics, creating an unstable divergence that typically resolves in favor of the underlying fundamentals. Momentum breakdown | Revenue growth turns positive and sustains above 5% year-over-year for two consecutive quarters, providing fundamental support to validate the technical setup. | →Stable |
| CounterTechnical momentum is driven by capital flows and positioning, not only fundamentals; volume accumulation (rising on-balance volume) suggests institutional buying can extend a breakout well beyond what the earnings picture appears to justify. | ||
Business quality scores 3.2 out of 10—below the minimum investment threshold—with no identifiable competitive moat, operating margins near zero, and revenue declining 5% year-over-year, pointing to a structurally weak earnings base.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Quality score rises above 4 over the next four quarters, driven by margin expansion and a return to positive revenue growth.
CounterFree cash flow converts at 56% of net income, indicating the business does generate actual cash even as accounting margins appear thin—an improvement in pricing or volume could lift quality metrics faster than the current score implies.
The stock sits just below the $45.87 resistance level—less than 1% of headroom—with an unfavorable risk/reward that leaves almost no margin of safety between the current price and the near-term ceiling.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Price pulls back to below $42, restoring at least 9% upside to the $45.87 resistance and creating a setup where the risk/reward is more compelling.
CounterThe technical momentum picture—golden cross, above all moving averages, RSI at 63, bullish MACD—can sustain a stock near resistance for an extended period, and a positive earnings surprise could push through the ceiling.
Intermodal and Transportation Solutions represents 57% of the business, meaning that any softness in domestic freight volumes would fall disproportionately on consolidated results.
↑ImprovingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Intermodal segment revenue grows more than 5% year-over-year for two consecutive quarters, confirming the end-market underpins the current valuation.
CounterThe elevated put-to-call ratio and high implied volatility signal broad positioning uncertainty—if the segment performs better than feared, concentration in intermodal could amplify upside rather than downside.
A technical breakout—golden cross, price above all major moving averages, RSI at 63, bullish MACD—has developed against a backdrop of declining revenue and below-threshold quality metrics, creating an unstable divergence that typically resolves in favor of the underlying fundamentals.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth turns positive and sustains above 5% year-over-year for two consecutive quarters, providing fundamental support to validate the technical setup.
CounterTechnical momentum is driven by capital flows and positioning, not only fundamentals; volume accumulation (rising on-balance volume) suggests institutional buying can extend a breakout well beyond what the earnings picture appears to justify.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.1 |
| ROA | 2.1 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.7 |
| Net margin | 1.4 |
| Current ratio | 5.4 |
| FCF quality | 4.4 |
| Moat | 4.6 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 56% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
3.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.2 |
| EPS growth | 6.1 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -5%
Momentum
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 8.7 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.7 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 2.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Below analyst target
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 2.8 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.2 |
| support resistance | 2.6 |
| 52w position | 8.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.4 |
| days to cover | 5.5 |
| volatility | 4.4 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 1.9 |
| beta | 6.1 |
| debt equity | 8.9 |
- ▸High IV: 69%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.5 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 1.0% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-2.1=NEGATIVE
- 8K_CRITICAL:4.02
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-2.08
Upside
-28.3%
Downside
13.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.0B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -2.1=NEGATIVE outcome against Insider at 7.3 and asymmetric R:R of -2.08.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.3, Momentum at 7.1, and Catalyst at 6.4; the weakest are Quality at 3.2, Growth at 3.6, and Peer rank at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.08 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Below Floor No Moat
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4 and revenue growth turns positive above 5% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Minimal Upside Unfavorable Setup
Trip ifPrice pulls back below $42, creating more than 9% upside to the $45.87 resistance target.
- P3Intermodal Segment Concentration
Trip ifIntermodal segment revenue grows more than 15% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Technical Fundamental Divergence
Trip ifRevenue growth exceeds 5% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters, bridging the gap between the technical setup and the fundamental picture.