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HAWKHawkEye 360, Inc.Hold6.3·$19.38-5.46%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

HawkEye 360 combines a wide-moat, high-growth profile and bullish insider buying with a severe recent earnings miss and elevated options hedging, and while the engine models a favorable risk/reward skew, it has yet to identify a clear trading edge - consistent with the recommendation to maintain the position without adding more.

Thesis pillars

  • Wide Moat Strong GrowthStable
  • Sharp Earnings MissImproving
  • Favorable Asymmetry Despite No Labeled EdgeStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

HawkEye 360, Inc. (HAWK) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $19.38, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: mixed signals — some dimensions strong, others weak.

HawkEye 360, Inc. operates as a space-enabled defense technology company in the United States. The company offers a shareable, battlefield-proven RF intelligence platform and database for warfighters during varied cycles of geopolitical volatility. The company's solutions... Read more

$19.38+66.7% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#7 of 64 Aerospace & Defense
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
Stop $18.02Target $32.31(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 4.5:1
Analyst target$37.14+91.7%7 analysts
$32.31our TP
$19.38price
$37.14mean
$41

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $19.38, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: mixed signals — some dimensions strong, others weak. Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 19d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-25
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Aug 14, 202619d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Positive insider activity
Wide economic moat
Risks
No bear case signals

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)117.5
Mkt Cap$1.9B
EV/EBITDA158.0
Profit Mgn-3.3%
ROE
Rev Growth116.5%
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWide

Options Flow

P/C0.15bullish
IV106%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
GatesMomentum 5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.4>=4.5A.R:R 4.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 19d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Speculative
RSI
48 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MASupport $17.02Resistance $22.61

Price Targets

$18
$32
A.Upside+66.7%
A.R:R4.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Analyst Consensus

Analysts14
Consensus4.3/5
Avg Target$37

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-14 (19d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HAWK stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $19.38, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: mixed signals — some dimensions strong, others weak. Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $32.31 (+66.7%), stop $18.02 (−7.5%), A.R:R 4.5:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HAWK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $32.31 (+66.7% upside). Target $32.31 (+66.7%), stop $18.02 (−7.5%), A.R:R 4.5:1. Stop-loss: $18.02.

Is HAWK overvalued or undervalued?

HawkEye 360, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 117.5). TrendMatrix value score: 4.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about HAWK?

14 analysts cover HAWK with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $37.

What does HawkEye 360, Inc. do?HawkEye 360, Inc. operates as a space-enabled defense technology company in the United States. The company offers a...

HawkEye 360, Inc. operates as a space-enabled defense technology company in the United States. The company offers a shareable, battlefield-proven RF intelligence platform and database for warfighters during varied cycles of geopolitical volatility. The company's solutions include customized SIGINT solutions including hardware, algorithms, and software capabilities; monitoring maritime activity in a customer's regional domain; tracking military radar and air defense systems; tracking extremist group communications, movement, and activity; maintaining border security and providing tactical ISR on battlefield environments; ensuring navigational integrity of GNSS; and core signal processing algorithms used in national government SIGINT systems. The company designs, manufactures, owns, and operates a global constellation of satellites that collect data in proprietary formations. It also uses end-to-end signal processing algorithms to detect and characterize a wide set of emitter types, including radars, jammers, beacons, and mobile radio devices. Additionally, it provides proprietary analytics and insights to identify, track, analyze, and predict specific emitters, converting data into insights for our intelligence partners. The company caters to the United States Government defense, intelligence, and national security agencies, as well as allied international governments. HawkEye 360, Inc. was incorporated in 2015 and is based in Herndon, Virginia.

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