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HASIHA Sustainable Infrastructure CSell5.6·$42.12-0.54%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

HA Sustainable Infrastructure has delivered three consecutive quarterly earnings beats with 64% net margins that rank at the top of its peer group, but these positives face a significant headwind from a 28% year-over-year revenue decline, deteriorating price momentum, and an extremely elevated put-to-call ratio of 6.5 that signals defensive options positioning — indicating the turnaround thesis is not yet confirmed by fundamental or technical trends.

Thesis pillars

  • Options Market Defensive PositioningDeteriorating
  • Earnings Recovery Three Straight BeatsDeteriorating
  • Best In Class Margin ProfileImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

HA Sustainable Infrastructure C (HASI) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Sell if holding. At $42.12, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.0%; Concentration risk — Product: BTM assets (52.0%).

HASI deploys capital in sustainable infrastructure across three segments—Behind the Meter (52% of portfolio), Grid-Connected (34%), and Fuels, Transport, and Nature (14%). With $16.1 billion in managed assets and a retained portfolio of $7.6 billion, the company earns interest... Read more

$42.12+6.0% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#121 of 235 Asset Management
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield4.01%(5y avg 5.02%)Payout260.00%at-risk
Stop $39.74Target $44.64(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.5:1
Analyst target$49.60+17.8%15 analysts
$44.64our TP
$42.12price
$49.60mean
$57

Sell if holding. At $42.12, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.0%; Concentration risk — Product: BTM assets (52.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 81d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-16
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 5, 202681d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: BTM assets (52.0%)
Thin upside margin: 6.0%
Near 52-week high (4.6% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)64.8
P/E (Fwd)12.6
Mkt Cap$5.4B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn67.7%
ROE3.4%
Rev Growth804.4%
Beta1.42
Dividend4.01%
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.28bullish
IV65%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductBTM assets52%
    10-K Item 1: 'Approximately 52% of our Portfolio is invested in BTM assets'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-27Item 5.02LOW
    HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital adopted the Executive Protection Plan on March 25, 2026, providing tiered severance benefits to CEO (Tier A), named executive officers (Tier B), and other designated management (Tier C) upon qualifying termination. Plan effective May 1, 2026. No officer departures disclosed.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.4
Support Resistance
1.6
52w Position
9.3
GatesA.R:R 0.5 < 1.5@spotExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 81d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
72 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $37.31Resistance $43.05

Price Targets

$40
$45
A.Upside+6.0%
A.R:R0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.5 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-05 (81d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HASI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $42.12, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.0%; Concentration risk — Product: BTM assets (52.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $39.74. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HASI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $44.64 (+6.0% upside). Prior stop was $39.74. Stop-loss: $39.74.

What are the risks of investing in HASI?

Concentration risk — Product: BTM assets (52.0%); Thin upside margin: 6.0%; Near 52-week high (4.6% away).

Is HASI overvalued or undervalued?

HA Sustainable Infrastructure C trades at a P/E of 64.8 (forward 12.6). TrendMatrix value score: 4.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HASI?

22 analysts cover HASI with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $50.

What does HA Sustainable Infrastructure C do?HASI deploys capital in sustainable infrastructure across three segments—Behind the Meter (52% of portfolio),...

HASI deploys capital in sustainable infrastructure across three segments—Behind the Meter (52% of portfolio), Grid-Connected (34%), and Fuels, Transport, and Nature (14%). With $16.1 billion in managed assets and a retained portfolio of $7.6 billion, the company earns interest income, equity returns, securitization gains, and management fees from income-generating clean energy assets.

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