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HA Sustainable Infrastructure C (HASI) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5High Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Sell if holding. At $40.77, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 7.6%.

HASI is a non-REIT investor in sustainable infrastructure (Behind-the-Meter, Grid-Connected, and Fuels/Transport/Nature markets), managing $16.1 billion in assets including a $7.6 billion on-balance-sheet portfolio of over 700 investments across more than 150 clients. Revenue... Read more

$40.77+7.6% A.UpsideScore 4.1/10#111 of 112 Asset Management
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield4.15%(5y avg 4.94%)Payout421.25%at-risk
Stop $38.82Target $43.86(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.2:1
Analyst target$48.73+19.5%15 analysts
$43.86our TP
$40.77price
$48.73mean
$54

Sell if holding. At $40.77, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 7.6%. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.1/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.40, earnings proximity 79d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — HA Sustainable Infrastructure C

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Thin upside margin: 7.6%
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5
Weak overall score: 4.1/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)101.9
P/E (Fwd)12.2
Mkt Cap$5.2B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn63.7%
ROE2.3%
Rev Growth-28.3%
Beta1.46
Dividend4.15%
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.50bullish
IV38%normal
Max Pain$18-57.1% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-27Item 5.02LOW
    HASI adopted the Executive Protection Plan on March 25, 2026, providing severance benefits to CEO (Tier A) and other management employees (Tier B/C) upon qualifying terminations, including change-in-control provisions effective May 1, 2026.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -28.3% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Declining revenue: -28%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.4
Growth Rank
0.5
Quality Rank
5.2
Best-in-class margins

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
2.5
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.0<4.5A.R:R 1.2 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.40EARNINGS PROXIMITY 79d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
49 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $40.02Resistance $44.13

Price Targets

$39
$44
A.Upside+7.6%
A.R:R1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.2:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (79d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HASI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $40.77, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 7.6%. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $38.82. Score 4.1/10, high confidence.

What is the HASI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $43.86 (+7.6% upside). Prior stop was $38.82. Stop-loss: $38.82.

What are the risks of investing in HASI?

Thin upside margin: 7.6%; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5; Weak overall score: 4.1/10.

Is HASI overvalued or undervalued?

HA Sustainable Infrastructure C trades at a P/E of 101.9 (forward 12.2). TrendMatrix value score: 4.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HASI?

22 analysts cover HASI with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $49.

What does HA Sustainable Infrastructure C do?HASI is a non-REIT investor in sustainable infrastructure (Behind-the-Meter, Grid-Connected, and Fuels/Transport/Nature...

HASI is a non-REIT investor in sustainable infrastructure (Behind-the-Meter, Grid-Connected, and Fuels/Transport/Nature markets), managing $16.1 billion in assets including a $7.6 billion on-balance-sheet portfolio of over 700 investments across more than 150 clients. Revenue comes from interest income, equity method investments, securitization gains, and asset management fees from clean energy and efficiency projects.

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