Value
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.1 |
| P/S | 2.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 47.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.05
GLNG · Why this verdict
Why Golar LNG (GLNG) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Golar LNG has delivered exceptional headline revenue growth at 120% year-over-year and carries strong 30% operating margins, but free cash flow is deeply negative at a rate more than six times net income in the opposite direction, while two consecutive large earnings misses and a price already near its analyst target leave the near-term risk/reward too thin to justify new entry.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue expanded 120% year-over-year, placing the company at the top of its peer group for growth and reflecting substantial new business activity in its energy infrastructure operations. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth remains above 50% year-over-year for at least 1 more reported annual period as the new revenue base compounds. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow is deeply negative at more than six times net income in the opposite direction, meaning the reported revenue and earnings growth are not translating into cash; if the capital commitment behind this growth produces persistent cash drain, the headline expansion overstates the business's value creation. | ||
Free cash flow is negative at a rate of more than six times net income — a red flag for earnings quality that signals the business is consuming cash substantially in excess of what its income statement implies. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow turns positive and reaches at least 50% of net income for 2 consecutive reported annual periods. | →Stable |
| CounterA company in a capital-intensive growth phase often runs negative free cash flow temporarily while deploying assets that will generate future returns; strong operating margins of 30% and a high balance-sheet score of 8 out of 9 suggest the core operations are not deteriorating. | ||
The two most recent quarterly reports both fell significantly below consensus — missing by 67% and 39% respectively — after a beat and an in-line quarter in the two prior periods, indicating an accelerating shortfall versus analyst expectations. Earnings | EPS surprise turns positive and exceeds 5% for 2 consecutive reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe large miss percentages may reflect the difficulty of modeling a rapidly changing revenue base; with revenue growing at triple-digit rates, the underlying business trajectory may remain intact even as the quarterly earnings cadence is erratic. | ||
The stock is just below its consensus price target with only 2.4% headroom remaining, and the reward-to-risk ratio of 0.45 means downside potential is more than double the remaining upside — the asymmetry gate failed at 0.4, well below the minimum bar of 1.5. Engine gate (failed) | Consensus price target rises above $58, restoring at least 13% upside from current levels and improving the reward-to-risk ratio above 1.5. | →Stable |
| CounterA range-bound technical setup with RSI at 48 and mid-band Bollinger positioning means the stock is not overbought; a positive earnings catalyst could lift the target and quickly render the current geometry attractive. | ||
Revenue expanded 120% year-over-year, placing the company at the top of its peer group for growth and reflecting substantial new business activity in its energy infrastructure operations.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 50% year-over-year for at least 1 more reported annual period as the new revenue base compounds.
CounterFree cash flow is deeply negative at more than six times net income in the opposite direction, meaning the reported revenue and earnings growth are not translating into cash; if the capital commitment behind this growth produces persistent cash drain, the headline expansion overstates the business's value creation.
Free cash flow is negative at a rate of more than six times net income — a red flag for earnings quality that signals the business is consuming cash substantially in excess of what its income statement implies.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow turns positive and reaches at least 50% of net income for 2 consecutive reported annual periods.
CounterA company in a capital-intensive growth phase often runs negative free cash flow temporarily while deploying assets that will generate future returns; strong operating margins of 30% and a high balance-sheet score of 8 out of 9 suggest the core operations are not deteriorating.
The two most recent quarterly reports both fell significantly below consensus — missing by 67% and 39% respectively — after a beat and an in-line quarter in the two prior periods, indicating an accelerating shortfall versus analyst expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise turns positive and exceeds 5% for 2 consecutive reported quarters.
CounterThe large miss percentages may reflect the difficulty of modeling a rapidly changing revenue base; with revenue growing at triple-digit rates, the underlying business trajectory may remain intact even as the quarterly earnings cadence is erratic.
The stock is just below its consensus price target with only 2.4% headroom remaining, and the reward-to-risk ratio of 0.45 means downside potential is more than double the remaining upside — the asymmetry gate failed at 0.4, well below the minimum bar of 1.5.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Consensus price target rises above $58, restoring at least 13% upside from current levels and improving the reward-to-risk ratio above 1.5.
CounterA range-bound technical setup with RSI at 48 and mid-band Bollinger positioning means the stock is not overbought; a positive earnings catalyst could lift the target and quickly render the current geometry attractive.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.0 |
| ROA | 1.8 |
| Gross margin | 8.1 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.7 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 30%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -608% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 120% YoY
Momentum
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.2 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.4 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.6 |
| quality rank | 4.3 |
| growth rank | 8.7 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.2 |
| support resistance | 1.3 |
| 52w position | 7.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.1 |
| days to cover | 5.0 |
| volatility | 6.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 2.6 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 4.5 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 14.88
- ▸High IV: 65%
Catalyst
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 3.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 0 days
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:0.4<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.36
Upside
+2.7%
Downside
7.5%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 58, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Growth at 10.0 (strongest), but ASYMMETRY:0.4<1.5@spot also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Momentum at 7.1, and Quality at 6.3; the weakest are Catalyst at 3.3, Technical at 3.4, and Value at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.36 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 50% year-over-year for 2 consecutive reported periods.
- P2Deeply Negative Free Cash Flow
Trip ifFree cash flow turns positive and reaches at least 50% of net income for 2 consecutive reported annual periods.
- P3Consecutive Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 5% for 2 consecutive reported quarters.
- P4Price Near Target Poor Asymmetry
Trip ifConsensus price target rises above $58, restoring more than 13% upside from current levels.