Value
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.3 |
| P/S | 9.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.18
- ▸Attractively valued
FUL · Why this verdict
Why H. B. Fuller (FUL) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters with earnings estimates trending upward, and with a report due in 8 days, the streak creates a near-term catalyst opportunity — assuming the pattern of under-promising and over-delivering extends. Earnings | EPS surprise remains positive in the upcoming and subsequent reported quarter, extending the beat streak to five consecutive quarters or longer. | →Stable |
| CounterAverage quarterly surprises have been modest at roughly 5% over the four-quarter window, and the proximity of the upcoming report — just 8 days away — introduces binary near-term event risk that could reset the setup rapidly if the streak ends. | ||
The stock trades at 12.5 times forward earnings with a PEG ratio of 0.21, placing it in attractively valued territory — a low multiple relative to expected earnings growth that screens cheaply versus peers. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E remains below 18x over the next four quarters as earnings growth keeps pace with price appreciation. | →Stable |
| CounterA low multiple in a company with declining revenue may reflect rational market discounting of top-line headwinds rather than genuine mispricing; inexpensive valuations can persist or deepen when earnings growth is not supported by top-line momentum. | ||
Revenue is declining at approximately 2% year-over-year — a top-line contraction that, if sustained, will progressively erode the base from which future earnings growth can be generated, regardless of margin efficiency. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth turns positive and exceeds 3% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, signaling a recovery in the top-line trend. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow conversion of 129% of net income and a Piotroski F-Score of 7 indicate solid operating and financial health at the current revenue level; if the decline is stabilizing, the margin and cash generation profile may be sufficient to sustain earnings growth even without an immediate top-line recovery. | ||
The stock has reached its near-term technical resistance target at $64.43, leaving no remaining headroom at current levels and an unfavorable risk/reward — a setup where patience for a reset is more appropriate than adding exposure. Price targets | A pullback to where the stock offers more than 8% upside to the resistance target would restore a constructive risk/reward and make the setup actionable. | →Stable |
| CounterThe technical structure shows a golden cross, bullish MACD, RSI of 62, and rising on-balance volume — a breakout configuration that can see names extend above prior resistance and establish a higher base when momentum is intact. | ||
The company has beaten earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters with earnings estimates trending upward, and with a report due in 8 days, the streak creates a near-term catalyst opportunity — assuming the pattern of under-promising and over-delivering extends.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise remains positive in the upcoming and subsequent reported quarter, extending the beat streak to five consecutive quarters or longer.
CounterAverage quarterly surprises have been modest at roughly 5% over the four-quarter window, and the proximity of the upcoming report — just 8 days away — introduces binary near-term event risk that could reset the setup rapidly if the streak ends.
The stock trades at 12.5 times forward earnings with a PEG ratio of 0.21, placing it in attractively valued territory — a low multiple relative to expected earnings growth that screens cheaply versus peers.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E remains below 18x over the next four quarters as earnings growth keeps pace with price appreciation.
CounterA low multiple in a company with declining revenue may reflect rational market discounting of top-line headwinds rather than genuine mispricing; inexpensive valuations can persist or deepen when earnings growth is not supported by top-line momentum.
Revenue is declining at approximately 2% year-over-year — a top-line contraction that, if sustained, will progressively erode the base from which future earnings growth can be generated, regardless of margin efficiency.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth turns positive and exceeds 3% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, signaling a recovery in the top-line trend.
CounterFree cash flow conversion of 129% of net income and a Piotroski F-Score of 7 indicate solid operating and financial health at the current revenue level; if the decline is stabilizing, the margin and cash generation profile may be sufficient to sustain earnings growth even without an immediate top-line recovery.
The stock has reached its near-term technical resistance target at $64.43, leaving no remaining headroom at current levels and an unfavorable risk/reward — a setup where patience for a reset is more appropriate than adding exposure.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- A pullback to where the stock offers more than 8% upside to the resistance target would restore a constructive risk/reward and make the setup actionable.
CounterThe technical structure shows a golden cross, bullish MACD, RSI of 62, and rising on-balance volume — a breakout configuration that can see names extend above prior resistance and establish a higher base when momentum is intact.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
H.B. Fuller has beaten earnings estimates in four consecutive quarters with estimates trending upward and a forward valuation that screens attractively at 12.5 times forward earnings with a PEG of 0.21, but revenue is declining at roughly 2% year-over-year, the stock has reached its near-term technical resistance target, and earnings due in 8 days introduce immediate event risk.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.1 |
| ROA | 3.4 |
| Gross margin | 2.5 |
| Op margin | 5.3 |
| Net margin | 2.6 |
| Current ratio | 6.4 |
| FCF quality | 7.9 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.9 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
1.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.5%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.7 |
| Price target | 8.3 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.60 (n=2)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 27%
Insider
5.3/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $295,104 (0.009% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.8 |
| quality rank | 4.7 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.9 |
| support resistance | 8.8 |
| 52w position | 6.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.2 |
| days to cover | 7.7 |
| volatility | 1.5 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 4.6 |
| beta | 7.2 |
| debt equity | 4.9 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.60
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.1 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 169.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2Passed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:80d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:1.3<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.2<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.18
Upside
+10.4%
Downside
8.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.1B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.4 below the 5.4 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.2) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:1.3<4.5, ASYMMETRY:1.2<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.18 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.2, Technical at 8.2, and Sentiment at 8.0; the weakest are Momentum at 1.3, Peer rank at 4.4, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.18 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Consistent Beats Near Term Catalyst
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Screens Attractively On Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 20x for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Revenue Decline Headwind
Trip ifRevenue growth turns positive and exceeds 3% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Price At Technical Ceiling
Trip ifStock price falls to $58.00 or below, creating more than 11% upside to the resistance target.