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FSMFortuna Mining Corp.Buy Wait6.9·$8.70+4.19%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

A forward price-to-earnings ratio of 5.7 times, a PEG of 0.07, and 76% year-over-year revenue growth combine with a wide economic moat and a perfect Piotroski financial health score to present a compelling value-plus-quality setup — offset by three earnings misses in the last four quarters that raise questions about management's ability to reliably meet its own targets.

Thesis pillars

  • Deeply Discounted ValuationStable
  • Wide Moat High Quality BusinessStable
  • Strong Revenue Growth TrajectoryStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Fortuna Mining Corp. (FSM) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Gold

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $9.45 but weak momentum still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Elevated risk factors.

Fortuna Mining Corp. engages in the precious and base metal mining and related activities in Argentina, Côte d'Ivoire, Mexico, Peru, and Senegal. The company operates through Mansfield, Sango, and Bateas segments. It operates the Lindero gold mine and the Séguéla gold mine, as... Read more

$8.70+43.2% A.UpsideScore 6.9/10#8 of 41 Gold
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield13.98%
Entry $9.45(Support Atr Sticky)Stop $8.57Target $11.90(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 3.6:1
Analyst target$14.00+60.9%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $9.45 but weak momentum still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Elevated risk factors. Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Value play: 46% MoS with quality 8.9. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 32d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202632d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Consecutive earnings misses (3)
Elevated risk factors

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.1
P/E (Fwd)5.3
Mkt Cap$2.6B
EV/EBITDA3.3
Profit Mgn31.1%
ROE22.0%
Rev Growth75.6%
Beta2.12
DividendNone
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C5.00bearish
IV62%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·3 ceiling hits

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/3M
GatesMomentum 4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.7>=4.5A.R:R 3.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 32d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
52 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $8.09Resistance $10.00

Price Targets

$9
$9
$12
A.Upside+36.8%
A.R:R3.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1%
Max %2%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (32d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FSM stock a buy right now?

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $9.45 but weak momentum still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Elevated risk factors. Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Value play: 46% MoS with quality 8.9. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $11.90 (+36.8%), stop $8.57 (−1.5%), A.R:R 3.6:1. Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FSM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $11.90 (+43.2% upside). Target $11.90 (+36.8%), stop $8.57 (−1.5%), A.R:R 3.6:1. Stop-loss: $8.57.

What are the risks of investing in FSM?

Consecutive earnings misses (3); Elevated risk factors.

Is FSM overvalued or undervalued?

Fortuna Mining Corp. trades at a P/E of 8.1 (forward 5.3). TrendMatrix value score: 9.7/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about FSM?

8 analysts cover FSM with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $14.

What does Fortuna Mining Corp. do?Fortuna Mining Corp. engages in the precious and base metal mining and related activities in Argentina, Côte d'Ivoire,...

Fortuna Mining Corp. engages in the precious and base metal mining and related activities in Argentina, Côte d'Ivoire, Mexico, Peru, and Senegal. The company operates through Mansfield, Sango, and Bateas segments. It operates the Lindero gold mine and the Séguéla gold mine, as well as the Caylloma silver, lead, and zinc mine. The company was formerly known as Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. and changed its name to Fortuna Mining Corp. in June 2024. Fortuna Mining Corp. was incorporated in 1990 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.

Related stocks: ORLA (Orla Mining Ltd.) · IAG (Iamgold Corporation) · OGC (OceanaGold Corporation) · CGAU (Centerra Gold Inc.) · SSRM (SSR Mining Inc.)
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