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FRSTPrimis Financial Corp.Sell6.9·$16.72+0.30%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

FRST screens cheap and fast-growing (8.1x forward P/E, 44% YoY growth) with a constructive uptrend-pullback setup, but sits just below the $400M market-cap threshold for the investable universe and has already reached its analyst target, limiting near-term asymmetric upside.

Thesis pillars

  • Cheap Forward Earnings
  • Strong Yoy Growth
  • Uptrend Pullback Setup
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Primis Financial Corp. (FRST) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

SellValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $16.72 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (1.3% away).

Primis Financial Corp. is the bank holding company for Primis Bank, a Virginia state-chartered community bank operating 24 full-service branches in Virginia and Maryland as of December 31, 2025, alongside a nationwide digital banking platform, mortgage warehouse lending, and its... Read more

$16.72-2.1% A.UpsideScore 6.9/10#5 of 224 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.40%(5y avg 3.44%)Payout18.52%sustainable
Stop $15.98Target $19.16(default +15%)A.R:R -0.1:1
Analyst target$19.19+14.8%4 analysts
$19.16our TP
$16.72price
$19.19mean
$20

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $16.72 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (1.3% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 66d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Primis Financial Corp.

About Primis Financial Corp.

Primis Financial Corp. reported $4.0 billion in total assets, $3.3 billion in total loans, and $3.4 billion in total deposits as of December 31, 2025, operated through Primis Bank, a Virginia state-chartered bank with 24 branches in Virginia and Maryland. The bank also runs a nationwide digital deposit platform, a healthcare-focused Panacea Financial lending division, and mortgage warehouse lending. Commercial real estate loans made up 37% of the loan portfolio, and real estate-secured loans overall made up approximately 61%.

Primis earns net interest income by taking deposits through its branch network, digital platform, and deposit intermediaries and deploying them into commercial real estate, commercial business, SBA, and consumer loans, supplemented by fee income from residential mortgage origination and sales in the secondary market. Primis Mortgage Company funded approximately $1.2 billion in loan production in 2025, up from about $800 million in 2024, while the Panacea Financial division, focused on medical, dental, and veterinary borrowers, ended 2025 with $544 million in loans and $128 million in deposits. Mortgage warehouse lending, which provides short-term funding lines to independent mortgage originators, held approximately $1.2 billion in approved lines and $318 million in outstanding balances with 125 customers as of year-end 2025. The bank's digital deposit platform, including its V1BE service, ended 2025 with $992 million in deposits, 82% of which had remained with the platform for more than two years.

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Primis is entering a credit cycle inflection point rather than a stable asset-quality plateau: nonperforming assets rose to $87 million, or 3% of total loans and OREO, as of December 31, 2025, a $70 million, or 417%, increase from just $17 million, or 1%, a year earlier. With $1.2 billion of commercial real estate loans and $132 million of construction and land development loans on the balance sheet, concentrated in a bank whose real estate-secured exposure spans 61% of total loans, a continuation of this nonperforming-asset trajectory, rather than a one-time normalization, would be the clearest signal that Primis's credit administration practices are being tested by its real estate concentration.

From Primis Financial Corp.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 26, 2026.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 22, 202666d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Margin of safety: 49%
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (1.3% away)
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.7
P/E (Fwd)8.6
Mkt Cap$413M
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn24.9%
ROE13.1%
Rev Growth44.2%
Beta0.72
Dividend2.40%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

IV135%elevated
Max Pain$15-10.3% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.7
Bollinger
1.0
52w Position
9.7

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.5
Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
GatesA.R:R -0.1=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 66d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
78 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $13.73Resistance $16.88

Price Targets

$16
$19
A.Upside-2.1%
A.R:R-0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.1% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-22 (66d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FRST stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $16.72 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (1.3% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $15.98. Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FRST stock price target?

Take-profit target: $19.16 (-2.1% upside). Prior stop was $15.98. Stop-loss: $15.98.

What are the risks of investing in FRST?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.3% away); Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is FRST overvalued or undervalued?

Primis Financial Corp. trades at a P/E of 7.7 (forward 8.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about FRST?

10 analysts cover FRST with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $19.

What does Primis Financial Corp. do?Primis Financial Corp. is the bank holding company for Primis Bank, a Virginia state-chartered community bank operating...

Primis Financial Corp. is the bank holding company for Primis Bank, a Virginia state-chartered community bank operating 24 full-service branches in Virginia and Maryland as of December 31, 2025, alongside a nationwide digital banking platform, mortgage warehouse lending, and its Panacea Financial healthcare-focused lending division. As of December 31, 2025, Primis had $4.0 billion in total assets, $3.3 billion in total loans, and $3.4 billion in total deposits. Real estate-secured loans, including commercial real estate, construction, and residential mortgages, made up approximately 61% of the

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