Value
8.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.5 |
| P/S | 9.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.03
- ▸Attractively valued
FRST · Why this verdict
Why Primis Financial (FRST) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
FRST screens cheap with strong growth and steady insider buying, but its $397M market cap sits just below the engine's investable-universe minimum, and both the momentum and asymmetry gates have failed with the stock already near its analyst target.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
FRST screens as attractively valued, with the value notes citing an 8.3x forward P/E and a 0.03 PEG ratio, plus a peer-rank note of 'Attractive P/E vs peers'. Valuation breakdown | The value dimension score (currently 8.6) should hold as earnings stabilize over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterElevated implied volatility (109%) and 2 misses in the last 4 quarters suggest the cheap multiple may reflect real earnings-quality risk rather than a pure market inefficiency. | ||
Revenue growth is reported at 44% YoY with a maximum growth score of 10.0, and quarterly revenue has climbed from $35.8M to $55.4M over the last five reported quarters. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should remain in strong double digits YoY over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe average earnings surprise over the last 4 quarters is negative (-16.6%), so top-line growth has not been consistently matched by earnings delivery. | ||
FRST's $397M market cap sits below the engine's $400M investable-universe minimum, which is why the action note classifies it as not in the investable universe. Bear case | Market cap should rise above the $400M threshold over the next 12 months for the stock to re-enter the investable universe. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterContinued insider buying (14 purchases, zero sales in 90 days) suggests confidence that the cap constraint is a technicality rather than a fundamental concern. | ||
Two of the engine's gates failed — momentum at 3.1 (below the 4.5 threshold) and asymmetry at 0.4 (below the 1.5 threshold) — and the stock has already reached its analyst target with only 1.8% upside remaining. Engine gate (failed) | Momentum and asymmetry should both clear their respective thresholds, and the discount to target should widen, over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterStrong technical scores (bollinger 8.0, support/resistance 8.0, 52-week position 9.0) suggest the underlying trend remains constructive despite the failed gates. | ||
Insiders have made 14 buy transactions and zero sells over the past 90 days (net +6,309 shares), producing a bullish insider signal. Insider transaction read | The insider signal should remain bullish with continued net buying over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe insider data relies on a share-count fallback with no dollar value disclosed, so the true materiality of the buying relative to market cap is unclear. | ||
FRST screens as attractively valued, with the value notes citing an 8.3x forward P/E and a 0.03 PEG ratio, plus a peer-rank note of 'Attractive P/E vs peers'.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The value dimension score (currently 8.6) should hold as earnings stabilize over the next 12 months.
CounterElevated implied volatility (109%) and 2 misses in the last 4 quarters suggest the cheap multiple may reflect real earnings-quality risk rather than a pure market inefficiency.
Revenue growth is reported at 44% YoY with a maximum growth score of 10.0, and quarterly revenue has climbed from $35.8M to $55.4M over the last five reported quarters.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should remain in strong double digits YoY over the next 12 months.
CounterThe average earnings surprise over the last 4 quarters is negative (-16.6%), so top-line growth has not been consistently matched by earnings delivery.
FRST's $397M market cap sits below the engine's $400M investable-universe minimum, which is why the action note classifies it as not in the investable universe.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Market cap should rise above the $400M threshold over the next 12 months for the stock to re-enter the investable universe.
CounterContinued insider buying (14 purchases, zero sales in 90 days) suggests confidence that the cap constraint is a technicality rather than a fundamental concern.
Two of the engine's gates failed — momentum at 3.1 (below the 4.5 threshold) and asymmetry at 0.4 (below the 1.5 threshold) — and the stock has already reached its analyst target with only 1.8% upside remaining.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Momentum and asymmetry should both clear their respective thresholds, and the discount to target should widen, over the next 12 months.
CounterStrong technical scores (bollinger 8.0, support/resistance 8.0, 52-week position 9.0) suggest the underlying trend remains constructive despite the failed gates.
Insiders have made 14 buy transactions and zero sells over the past 90 days (net +6,309 shares), producing a bullish insider signal.
↓DeterioratingInsider transaction read
- Expectation
- The insider signal should remain bullish with continued net buying over the next 12 months.
CounterThe insider data relies on a share-count fallback with no dollar value disclosed, so the true materiality of the buying relative to market cap is unclear.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.4 |
| ROA | 0.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Strong margins: 25%
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 44% YoY
Momentum
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.5 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.2 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $18,744 (0.005% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
7.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.5 |
| quality rank | 4.5 |
| growth rank | 9.0 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.6 |
| support resistance | 3.8 |
| 52w position | 9.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.8 |
| days to cover | 7.8 |
| volatility | 7.3 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.7 |
- ▸High IV: 101%
- ▸Above max pain $2
Catalyst
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.0>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:46d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.09
Upside
-0.4%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.4B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.0>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Catalyst at 3.8. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 8.4, and Peer rank at 7.0; the weakest are Catalyst at 3.8, Quality at 5.1, and Insider at 5.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.09 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation Cheap Multiple
Trip ifValue dimension score falls below 5.0 from the current 8.6.
- P2Strong Revenue Earnings Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth YoY falls below 20% for 2 consecutive quarters, reversing the current 44% YoY pace.
- P3Market Cap Below Investable Threshold
Trip ifMarket cap rises above $400M, clearing the engine's investable-universe minimum, from the current $397M.
- P4Momentum Asymmetry Gates Failed Target Reached
Trip ifMomentum score exceeds 4.5, clearing the gate threshold, from the current 3.1.
- P5Bullish Insider Accumulation
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds 6,309 shares within a 90-day window, reversing the current net buying trend.