Value
8.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.5 |
| P/S | 9.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.03
- ▸Attractively valued
FRST · Why this verdict
Why Primis Financial (FRST) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score6.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
FRST screens cheap and fast-growing (8.1x forward P/E, 44% YoY growth) with a constructive uptrend-pullback setup, but sits just below the $400M market-cap threshold for the investable universe and has already reached its analyst target, limiting near-term asymmetric upside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Trades cheaply on forward earnings (8.1x forward P/E, PEG 0.03), flagged as attractively valued despite the target having already been reached. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E should hold below 10x or compress further only if earnings continue to grow at a strong pace, keeping the PEG ratio low. | — |
| CounterThe analyst target has already been reached, with only 0.4% remaining upside per the engine, meaning most of the value case may already be priced in. | ||
Revenue and earnings growth is strong at 44% YoY, positioning the company as an industry growth leader among peers. Growth breakdown | Growth should stay above 20% YoY over the next several quarters if the growth trajectory is durable. | — |
| CounterGrowth of this magnitude for a regional bank is unusual and could reflect one-time or acquisition-driven items rather than organic durability. | ||
Shares are in an uptrend pullback (RSI 38) while still holding above the 200-day moving average, framed by the engine as a potential buy-the-dip opportunity. Momentum breakdown | RSI should recover back toward 50+ without price breaking below the 200-day moving average, confirming the pullback-in-uptrend read. | — |
| CounterFalling on-balance volume suggests the pullback could be the start of genuine distribution rather than a healthy pause, especially since the momentum gate already failed. | ||
The company has a mixed recent earnings record, 2 beats and 2 misses over the last 4 quarters, with a negative average surprise of -16.6%. Earnings | The beat rate should improve to at least 3 of 4 quarters with a positive average surprise if execution stabilizes. | — |
| CounterThe next earnings date is 89 days out, so this pillar carries limited near-term catalyst risk and could be stale by the time it matters. | ||
Market capitalization of $382M sits below the $400M minimum threshold, excluding the stock from the investable universe regardless of its underlying fundamentals. Warnings | Market cap should grow back above $400M within 12 months, via price appreciation or share issuance, to re-enter the investable universe. | — |
| CounterThis is a structural liquidity/mandate constraint rather than a fundamental judgment — the underlying business could still perform well even while excluded. | ||
Trades cheaply on forward earnings (8.1x forward P/E, PEG 0.03), flagged as attractively valued despite the target having already been reached.
—Valuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E should hold below 10x or compress further only if earnings continue to grow at a strong pace, keeping the PEG ratio low.
CounterThe analyst target has already been reached, with only 0.4% remaining upside per the engine, meaning most of the value case may already be priced in.
Revenue and earnings growth is strong at 44% YoY, positioning the company as an industry growth leader among peers.
—Growth breakdown
- Expectation
- Growth should stay above 20% YoY over the next several quarters if the growth trajectory is durable.
CounterGrowth of this magnitude for a regional bank is unusual and could reflect one-time or acquisition-driven items rather than organic durability.
Shares are in an uptrend pullback (RSI 38) while still holding above the 200-day moving average, framed by the engine as a potential buy-the-dip opportunity.
—Momentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI should recover back toward 50+ without price breaking below the 200-day moving average, confirming the pullback-in-uptrend read.
CounterFalling on-balance volume suggests the pullback could be the start of genuine distribution rather than a healthy pause, especially since the momentum gate already failed.
The company has a mixed recent earnings record, 2 beats and 2 misses over the last 4 quarters, with a negative average surprise of -16.6%.
—Earnings
- Expectation
- The beat rate should improve to at least 3 of 4 quarters with a positive average surprise if execution stabilizes.
CounterThe next earnings date is 89 days out, so this pillar carries limited near-term catalyst risk and could be stale by the time it matters.
Market capitalization of $382M sits below the $400M minimum threshold, excluding the stock from the investable universe regardless of its underlying fundamentals.
—Warnings
- Expectation
- Market cap should grow back above $400M within 12 months, via price appreciation or share issuance, to re-enter the investable universe.
CounterThis is a structural liquidity/mandate constraint rather than a fundamental judgment — the underlying business could still perform well even while excluded.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.4 |
| ROA | 0.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Strong margins: 25%
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 44% YoY
Momentum
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.1 |
| MACD | 7.5 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.3 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 78)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 7.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
Insider
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 6.5 |
| insider conviction | 8.0 |
| holder change | 5.4 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Modest insider buying — $127,653 (0.031% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
7.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.4 |
| quality rank | 4.5 |
| growth rank | 9.0 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.0 |
| support resistance | 0.7 |
| 52w position | 9.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.8 |
| days to cover | 7.8 |
| volatility | 7.5 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.7 |
- ▸High IV: 135%
- ▸Above max pain $15
Catalyst
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:66d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.14
Upside
-2.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.4B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.8>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Catalyst at 3.8. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 8.4, and Peer rank at 7.0; the weakest are Catalyst at 3.8, Technical at 3.8, and Quality at 5.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.14 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cheap Forward Earnings
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 12x (from the current 8.1x) without a corresponding earnings increase, showing the value case has been fully arbitraged away.
- P2Strong Yoy Growth
Trip ifYoY growth decelerates below 10% for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the current 44% growth rate was not sustainable.
- P3Uptrend Pullback Setup
Trip ifPrice closes below the 200-day moving average for more than 5 consecutive trading days, invalidating the uptrend-pullback read.
- P4Mixed Earnings Track Record
Trip ifAverage EPS surprise over the next 4 reported quarters stays below -10%, confirming a persistent pattern of earnings underperformance.
- P5Below Investable Universe Cutoff
Trip ifMarket capitalization stays below $350M, further below the current $382M, for 2 consecutive quarters, showing the gap to the $400M threshold is widening rather than closing.